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- Vietnam Facts
Frankfurt, 30/4/ 2008
0
- Content
1. Vietnam economic outlook
2. Major reforms
1
- 1 Vietnam Economic Outlook
2
- Major socioeconomic indices
Rapid growth has been maintained, inflation under
control. 2006 has marked a high growth rate of 8.2%
per year
Real Real Real Real Real
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GDP Growth Rate 7.2% 7.7% 8.4% 8.17% 8.48%
Industry 10.3% 10.2% 10.6% 10.4% 10.6%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery 3.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5%
Services 6.6% 7.5% 8.5% 8.29% 8.7%
CPI 3.0% 9.5% 8.4% 6.6% 12.6%
Export Earning Growth 20.8% 28.9% 22.4% 22.0% 22%
Budget Deficit/ GDP 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%
Total Investment/GDP 35.0% 36.6% 38.7% 40% 41.5%
FDI (US$ tỷ) 2.65 2.90 3.30 4.1 16.2
Poor Household Percentage NA 18.1% NA 15.47 14.75%
Urban Unemployment Rate 5. 8% 5.6% 5.13% 5.32% 5.1%
Phần trăm thời gian ở khu vực nông thôn 77.4% 79.3% 80.7% NA NA
Job Creation (thousand people) 1,500 1,100 1.200 1.500 1.550
Children Proportion 28% 26% 26% NA NA
Nguồn: BTC
3
- One of the fastest growing economies in Asia –
Sustainable GDP Growth
Economic reforms have turned Vietnam into the third fastest growing economy in the region, following China
and India in 2007
„ Growth in Manufacturing and Construction has been the main engine for GDP growth in Vietnam
„ Biggest contributions to GDP growth in 2007 include: Manufacturing: 10.6%, Services: 8.7% and
Agriculture: 3.5%
„ A record growth rate of 8.4% has been achieved in 2007
Real GDP Growth (2000 2006E) GDP Growth in the Region
(Giá cả hiện tại) (%)
8.4% 8.2% 8.5% Nước 2004 2005 2006 2007
7.8%
7.3% China 10.1 10.4 11.1 11.4
6.8% 6.9% 7.1%
India 7.9 9.1 9.7 9.2
Vietnam 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5
Singapo 9.0 7.3 8.2 7.7
Indonesia 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3
Malaysia 6.8 5.0 5.9 6.3
Philippines 6.6 4.9 5.4 7.3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Thái Lan 6.3 4.5 5.1 4.9
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: IMF
Vietnam has good conditions to successfully complete its industrialization process
4
- Reasonable GDP Growth Rates
Even though the services sectors have been growing steadily, making remarkable
contributions to the overall economic growth, the country’s GDP growth has still mainly
attributed to the manufacturing sector
(% share) Real GDP Contribution (% YoY)
GDP Growth By Sector
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
10,6 10,37 10,6
22,4 20,2 19,6 20,36 20,25 10,3 10,2
9,4
38,7
8,5 8,7
8,3
8,0
7,0
40,4 40,3 38,1 38,1 6,5
41,0
38,6
4,1 4,0
3,5 3,4 3,4
3,2
39,4 40,2 41,6 41,6
36,6
22,7
1990 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industry Services Agriculture Industry Services Agriculture
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
5
- Prudent Budget Control
Vietnam’s Fiscal policy has been reformed
through expenditure control and revenue
expansion measures
„ Since 2000, budget deficit has been
maintained below the target of 2.5% GDP
Expenditure cannot exceed Revenue
Commercial loans for budget
expenditure purposes are forbidden
„ Tax reforms concentrate on direct solutions in
tax collections
Fiscal Position (2000 2007) Total Revenue Breakdown (2007)
„ By the end of the fiscal year of 2007, budget
(VND billion) (%)
deficit was kept at 1.8%/GDP Cuối năm tài Other
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 12.8%
khoá 2007, thâm hụt NS ở mức 18%/GDP
Income Tax
NonTax Revenue 38.7%
4.4%
2.8% 2.5%
1.9% 1.8% Capital Revenue
1.6% 1.8% 1.8%
1.1% 5.8%
(10,017) Natural Res. Tax
(10,904)
(12,142)
(12,402) (12,025) 7.7%
(13,300)
Import and Export Tax
(17,213) Value Added Tax
8.6%
Fiscal Balance % GDP 22.1%
Note: Figures calculated under IMF standards Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Trade
6
- External Debts under control
Vietnam’s external debts position has been
improved considerably in recent years
„ The targets of external debts not exceeding
20% of export earnings and total debts not
exceeding 50% GDP have been achieved.
Debt Service Coverage
„ Current with respect to debt payments on all External Debt Obligations
(%) outstanding external debt (US$ triệu)
11.1% 10,4%
1,030 946
899
8,1% 160
7,1% 7,1% 7,5% 154 146 752 762
6,7%
39.1% 38,9% 7,0% 133 125
35,3%
33,7% 32,1% 31,5% 30,5% 30,0%
870 792 753
619 638
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F
Total External Debt / GDP DSR Principal Interest
Note: Debt Service Ratio is calculated as ration of total debt service to exports of Source: Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Việt Nam
goods and nonfactor services in %
Source: Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Việt Nam
Vietnam has been improving the administration of external debts, one of the measures to
improve effective administration of the financial sector in the country
7
- Improving BoP Position
Vietnam’s Balance of Payments has been
improved through more sustainable foreign
reserves
Current Account (2000 2007)
(US$ triệu)
3,7% 2,1% 0,9% 0,7%
(2.5%) (4.9%) (2.0%)
2,50% Balance of Payments (2000 2007)
1.142
682 270
(863) (1,931) 217 (US$ triệu)
10.700
(925) 1.800
8,6% 15,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5,4% 6,8%
Current Account As % of GDP 1,0% 1,9%
0,1%
(1.0%)
Capital Account (2000 2007)
(US$ triệu) 2.150 2.131 2.874
8.3% 6.0% 12.0% 6.2% 17.00% 883
5.8% 323 40 350
(2.4%) 0.7%
4,083
2,447 1,913 2,604
1,136 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
(754) 220
BOP As % of GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Capital Account As % of GDP Nguồn: BTC, NHNN
Nguồn: BTC, State Bank of Việt Nam
Foreign capital inflows have resulted in a surplus in Vietnam’s Balance of Payments
8
- Stable Exchange Rates
Vietnam maintains a managed float in its foreign
exchange regime
„ A flexible exchange rate of the Vietnam Dong
has facilitated exports
„ Riskmitigating costs of foreign investors have
been lowered
Exchange Rates (1995 – 2007)
17.000
15.875 16.049
16.000 16150
15.608 15.740
15.000 15.368
15.070
14.504
14.000 14.018
13.000 12.985 2/1999: Fixed exchange
12.000 rate regime changed
11.023 11.050 into a managed float
11.000 11.175
regime
10.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Nguồn: NHNN
The exchange rate stability has successfully facilitated trade and investment
9
- 4 Stable Exchange Rate – Foreign Reserves
Official Foreign Reserves Foreign Reserves Improvement
(ml US$) (Months of imports)
9000
21.000
12.000
4.272
7.728
5.554 2.174
4.866 1.910
2.555 2.956
688
365 399
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
Foreign reserves continue to grow steadily
10
- 2 Major Reforms
11
- 2
3
SOE Reforms Nonstate
sectors
Development
1
Trade 4
Liberalization Banking
Reforms
7 5
Legal Capital Market
Reforms Development
6
Fiscal
Reforms
12
- 1 Trade Liberalization: Next steps
Lots of effective trade liberalization measures have boosted international trade
„ Vietnam’s 5year period trade policies beginning in 2001 reduced non tariff barriers to trade
„ Since the conclusion of the US – Vietnam BTA in 2001, Vietnam’s export turnover to the US
increased from USD 1.1 bn in 2001 to USD 10.7 bn in 2007
„ Total export turnover reached USD 48.6 bn in 2007
Sequence of major reforms in trade
Export Earnings (2000 2007)
liberalization
(US$ billion)
48,6 Tariff and Non tariff barriers negotiations
19,5% 19,9%
18,8% 18,3%
14,7% 22,00%
5,1% 7,1% 39,8 Banking Sector Development and SOE
32,4
Reforms
26,5
20,1
16,7 Tax and Customs Reforms
14,5 15,0
Creation of sufficient social security
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports % to US
Transparency in the legal system
Source: Ministry of Trade, General Statistical Office
WTO entry for Vietnam will facilitate an acceleration of marketbased reforms
13
- 2 SOE Reforms
SOE Reforms facilitate the development of the
private sector and reduce the debt burden of the
State
SOE Reform Measures
Remarkable Reduction of SOEs
(number of SOEs)
Equitization and Development of the
12.300
Securities Market
SOE Sellout
4.800
4.050 Development of group model
3.067
2.627
1.807
Removal of state subsidies
1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Ministry of Finance
SOE reform continues to make solid progress
14
- 3 Development of the Private Sector
Recent solutions for the development of SMEs
Private Sector’s contribution to the Solutions for the development of
economy SMEs
(% of GDP)
The Land Law
65.0
59.8 61.5 61.3 62.8 64.7
65.8
The Enterprise Law
40.2 38.5 38.7 37.2 35.3 35.0 34.2
Simplification of registration procedures
1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
State Nonstate Trade promotion and improvement of
export earnings
Source: Ministry of Finance
The total number of enterprises by 2005 was 220,000, which number is expected to grow
to 500,000 by 2010
The private sector emerges to be growth engine of the economy
15
- 4 Banking Reforms
The legal framework for reforming stateowned commercial banks was formulated by the
Khuôn khổ pháp lý cho việc cải cách hệ thống
Government in April 2001 with a view to enhancing the financial capacity, supporting the
NHTMNN được CP ký ban hành vào 4/2001 để nâng
cao năng lực tài chính và hỗ trợ tái cơ cấu các NH
restructuring of banks and building trust.
và xây dựng lòng tin.
The State Bank is turned into the Central Bank
„ Continue to restructure 36 JSBs under the supervision of the State Bank
Restructuring Joint when listed
Stock Banks (JSBs) „ 4 joint venture banks and 9 foreign bank branches
„ Restructuring 4 stateowned commercial banks
Restructuring State „ Applying international accounting standards to have a better evaluation of
owned commercial the size of bad debts and to improve transparency in the banking system
banks „ Improving corporate governance and liberalizing the interest policies,
encouraging stateowned commercial banks to provide accurate evaluation
of losses due to nonperforming loans
Improving the legal „ Enhancing supervision by the State Bank
framework for „ Developing internal accounting standards in line with international
supervising the standards
sector
„ Gradually improving corporate governance capacity and competitiveness
Creating a level
of the banks
playing field for all
banks „ Limiting the GiớI hạn huy động tiền gửI bằng nộI tệ đốI vớI NH nước ngoài,
phù hợp vớI các cam kết quốc tế 16
- 5 Developing the internal capital market
„ Currently, over 400 bonds and 229 shares are listed on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and Hanoi Securities Trading
Centre
„ By 2007, the market capitalization value amounted to 30% GDP
VN Index 2005 2007 Number of listed shares on HOSE
154
120
32
20 22 26
5 10
Period: 1/2005 – 24/4/2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Finance
In 2006 and 2007, the domestic capital market grew rapidly
both in terms of quantiy and quality
17
- 5 Development of a bond market
The Government of Vietnam promotes the
mobilization of funds from the local sector to
ensure the economic growth of the country
Since 2000, the local bond market has witnessed
significant progresses
Domestic Government Debt Internal Debt Obligations
(US$ billion) (VND trillion)
8,7 14,0 14,0
11,8%
12,5 11,9 11,4 11,8
10,6%
12,1% 10,9 10,9 10,9 10,9
8,8%
8,2%
6,2% 6,5%
5,1%
1,6 2,0 2,3 3,3 4,0 5,6 7,2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2008F 2010F 2012F 2014F
2007 2009F 2011F 2013F 2015F
Total Debt Total Debt (% GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
18
- 6 Financial Reforms
Effective Financial Reforms have helped create a sound financial environment for both local
and foreign enterprises
„ Applying the same tax system for all economic sectors, a corporate income
tax rate of 28% is uniformly imposed on both local and foreign invested
Standardized taxation enterprises
system „ Promoting the reform of tax administration
„ Institutionalizing and modernizing tax and customs administration
„ Increasing savings for development investment
Tightly controlling the „ Reducing government subsidies
state budget „ Reforming the salary and subsidy system
„ Improving transparency with the involvement of GDDS from IMF
Flexible management „ Tight control of the government expenditure
of public finance „ Emphasis on better administration of external debts
„ Making public the financial status of enterprises
Supervision of local
„ Taking necessary measures to supervise the financial situation of
enterprises
enterprises and to effectively implement the taxation system
19
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