ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVE

EnErgy 2 TEchnology o PErsPEcTivEs o Please note that this PDF is subject to specific restrictions that scenarios & strategies limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/ about/copyright.asp to 2050 EnErgy TEchnology PErsPEcTivEs o 1 0 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 To meet the challenges of energy security and climate change as well as the growing energy needs of the developing world, a global energy technology revolution is essential. This was the key message of the 2008 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP). But is this fundamental transformation happening? What are the key technologies that can play a role? What are the costs and benefits? And what policies do we need? ThenewETP2010exploressuchquestionsandmanyothers,drawingontheextensive expertiseoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)anditsenergytechnologynetwork. ETP 2010 presents updated scenarios from the present to 2050 that show which new technologies will be most important in key sectors and in different regions of the world. It highlights the importance of finance to achieve change, examines the implications of the scenarios for energy security and looks at how to accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies in major developing countries. It presents roadmaps and transition pathways for spurring deployment of the most important clean technologies and for overcoming existing barriers. With extensive data, projections and analysis, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 provides decision makers with the detailed information and insights needed to accelerate the switch to a more secure, low-carbon energy future. -:HSTCQE=U]Z^\]: (61 2010 14 1 P1) 978-92-64-08597-8 €100 ENERGY 2 TECHNOLOGY o PERSPECTIVES o Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member countries on sound energy policy. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among 28 advanced economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency aims to: ■ Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. ■ Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. ■ Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. ■ Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. ■ Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: © OECD/IEA, 2010 International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Please note that this publication Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States is subject to specifi c restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. 3 FOREWORD The previous edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), published in summer 2008, called for an energy technology revolution to tackle the undesirable consequences of our current patterns of energy supply and use. It also highlighted that, if we did not alter course, concerns about energy security and the threat of dangerous climate change would only become much worse. So what – if any – progress have we made over the last two years in meeting these challenges? At first sight, it may seem as though not much has changed. Countries are still discussing what a long-term climate change framework should look like, while greenhouse-gas emissions go on rising. Concerns about energy security are still with us and oil prices remain high and prone to further volatility. However, I believe that in fact we may be witnessing the early signs of the historic transition that we so badly need: high oil prices and the global financial crisis may have changed the demand structure for energy. We may indeed see an “oil-less recovery” in OECD countries, in which our economies return to positive growth without a notable pick-up in oil demand. We are also seeing some promising signs of accelerated deployment for a number of important low-carbon technologies, particularly in renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced vehicle technologies. Funding for clean energy research, development and demonstration is increasing again after more than two decades of decline and stagnation, and many countries have committed to spend even more in the future. But we still have formidable challenges before us. Tackling climate change and enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system leading to a new age of electrification. We need to break the historic link between CO2 emissions and economic output; and do this not just for a few years, but from now on. ETP 2010 shows how this can be achieved. It identifies the technologies that we require and the policies that we will need to stimulate the necessary investment. Importantly, it also clearly demonstrates the benefits in terms not only of reduced CO2 emissions, but also of fossil fuel savings. We also need to think about what a low-carbon energy mix will mean for comprehensive energy security. On the one hand, reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels and broader development of alternative energy sources can help alleviate some of the current concerns around security of supply for these fuels. Yet as the demand for decarbonised electricity and also for biofuels increases, so new challenges will no doubt emerge requiring innovative policies to ensure that we have the affordable and reliable energy supplies that we need. ETP 2010 also shows how efforts to tackle climate change will need to include all major economies and so require truly global co-operation. We at the IEA acutely recognise this challenge, with our member states now representing a decreasing share of the world’s energy demand, production and CO2 emissions. In the face of this, the IEA and its members must create ever stronger ties with key non-member countries such as China, India, Russia and many other countries. The newly proposed international low-carbon energy technology platform is one way in which we are doing this. The platform, which was endorsed by the IEA Ministerial meeting ... - tailieumienphi.vn