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- Financial Crises:
Lessons from the Past,
Preparation for the Future
-
This book is based on the sixth annual financial markets and development
conference held April 26–27, 2005, in Washington, D.C. The conference
was cosponsored by the World Bank Group and Brookings Institution.
The previous volumes in this series are available from the Brookings
Institution Press:
Financial Markets and Development: The Crisis in Emerging Markets
(1999)
Managing Financial and Corporate Distress: Lessons from Asia (2000)
Open Doors: Foreign Participation in Financial Systems in Developing
Countries (2001)
Financial Sector Governance: The Roles of the Public and Private Sectors
(2002)
The Future of Domestic Capital Markets in Developing Countries (2003)
The Future of State-Owned Financial Institutions (2004)
-
.
.
Editors
Financial Crises:
Lessons from the Past,
Preparation for the Future
Washington, D.C.
- ABOUT BROOKINGS
The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research, educa-
tion, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy. Its principal
purpose is to bring the highest quality independent research and analysis to bear on
current and emerging policy problems. Interpretations or conclusions in Brookings publi-
cations should be understood to be solely those of the authors.
Copyright © 2005
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Financial crises : lessons from the past, preparation for the future / Gerard
Caprio, James A. Hanson, Robert E. Litan, editors.
p. cm.
Summary: “Analyzes the efficacy of attempts to recover from past crises
and their lessons for the future, assesses the current state of international
financial markets and examines policy options for reducing systemic vulner-
ability, and addresses pension system reform”—Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8157-1289-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-8157-1289-8 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Financial crises. International finance. 3. Monetary policy. 4. Economic
policy. I. Caprio, Gerard. II. Hanson, James A. III. Litan, Robert E., 1950–
III. Title.
HB3722.F546 2005
332'.042—dc22 2005027077
987654321
The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the
American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for
Printed Library Materials: ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Typeset in Adobe Garamond
Composition by Circle Graphics
Columbia, Maryland
Printed by Victor Graphics
Baltimore, Maryland
- Contents
1 Introduction 1
Gerard Caprio, James Hanson, and Robert E. Litan
2 Postcrisis Challenges and Risks in East Asia
and Latin America: Where Do They Go from Here? 15
James A. Hanson
3 Banking System Crises and Recovery in the Transition
Economies of Europe and Central Asia: An Overview 63
Fernando Montes-Negret and Thomas Muller
4 Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries
with Market Access: Help or Hindrance? 87
Indermit Gill and Brian Pinto
5 The Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis:
What Might It Look Like? 121
Morris Goldstein, with the assistance of Anna Wong
6 Financial Risks Ahead: Views from the Private Sector 211
-
7 Starting over Safely: Rebuilding Banking Systems 217
Gerard Caprio and Patrick Honohan
8 Old-Age Income Support in the Twenty-first Century:
Conceptual Framework and Select Issues
of Implementation 257
Robert Holzmann
Contributors 279
Index 281
- 1
gerard caprio
james hanson
robert e. litan
Introduction
T he calm before the storm? That question dominated the stage at the
seventh annual conference on emerging markets finance, cosponsored
by the World Bank and the Brookings Institution and held at Brookings in
late April 2005.
At the time of the conference, it had been a little less than eight years since
the onset of the Asian financial crisis, an event that had depression-like effects
throughout much of Asia and, for a time, seemed to threaten global economic
stability. That this outcome never happened can be attributed to a combina-
tion of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve Board in the United
States, emergency lending to the countries in the region by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international institutions, the concerted
rollover of some of Korea’s private external debt, and a dose of good luck.
The Asian economies have since recovered from their financial crises to
varying degrees, as have the other major emerging-market countries that
suffered their own crises shortly afterward: Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and
Turkey. What has been learned since these crises in key parts of the devel-
oping world? How exposed are countries in different parts of the world to
another, perhaps entirely different kind of financial and economic crisis?
These are among the questions that the conference papers address. This
introduction provides a brief overview of their main findings. The subsequent
chapters contain the papers as well as a summary of the panel discussion with
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private sector representatives of commercial banks and rating agencies and
select portions of the discussion by the roughly 100 financial experts from
around the world who attended the conference.
James Hanson led off the conference by examining the challenges and
economic vulnerabilities in East Asia and Latin America. Countries in both
regions suffered financial crises in the 1990s and the early part of this decade.
In chapter 2, Hanson discusses the common features of the crises in both
regions and the very different paths that countries in each region have taken
since their crises.
Almost all of the crises in the 1990s and post-2000 in both regions were
not just external crises; they often began in the domestic banking sectors,
and banking sector problems complicated policymaking in all cases. In the
typical case, runs on banks quickly turned into runs on currencies, forcing
central banks to abandon attempts to peg the exchange rate and deal with
bank failures. In some, but not all, cases, excessive government borrowing
contributed to the crises, unlike the 1980s-era Latin American crises, where
excessive government borrowing was the dominant cause.
There also were common elements among the policy responses to the
more recent financial crises. Governments typically bailed out bank deposi-
tors. They incurred massive debts to the banking systems in the process, since
governments also had to pick up the tab for losses on unpaid bank loans that
typically were transferred to separate asset management companies. On the
macroeconomic front, pressure from the market and the IMF, which pro-
vided emergency finance to many of the countries in both regions, sooner or
later forced the governments to tighten monetary and fiscal policy.
Hanson does not add to the well-known and vigorous debate over these
policy responses; instead he focuses factually on what happened in the econ-
omies as a result. One of the postcrisis macroeconomic outcomes, common
to both regions, was a dramatic drop in inflation, an unusual experience for
Latin America, where much higher inflation rates had been common. Lower
inflation rates helped the working of the financial system after the crises in
all the countries.
In terms of growth, the postcrisis experiences have differed between (and
within) regions. The East Asian countries generally have rebounded from
their crisis-induced downturns. Annual growth recently has been in the
4–6 percent range, good for developing countries, but below their growth
rates in the first half of the 1990s. Korea recovered the most rapidly, using
the unorthodox strategy of promoting consumption, but its growth then
slowed as the approach reached its limits. Indonesia suffered the most from
-
its crisis, in part because of the political turmoil surrounding the end of the
Suharto regime and realignment of the political economy as the country
developed a democratic government. The Latin American countries that
suffered crises in the 1990s recovered quickly. Nonetheless, despite their
upswing in 2004, their average growth remained low.
Another sharp contrast between the two regions relates to their external
debt. Since the 1997–98 crises, the average ratio of external debt to GDP in
East Asia has fallen. The opposite has occurred in Latin America, where the
ratio of external debt to GDP in 2004 stood above the level of the mid-
1990s. Borrowing from the World Bank and the IMF by Latin American
governments is one factor contributing to this difference in external debt
patterns. Other factors include an apparent increase in the risk tolerance of
investors, coupled with improving economic prospects in many Latin Amer-
ican countries since 2000, which has enabled governments to sell their debt
more easily. Indeed, by early 2005, the spread on interest rates on emerging-
market bonds relative to those on U.S. treasury bonds stood at an eight-year
low. The lower spread, coupled with the lower level of U.S. rates, has eased
the debt service of all emerging-market borrowers. It remains to be seen
whether, and to what extent, high-borrowing countries will be able to keep
on servicing their debts if interest rates rise. In contrast to Latin America, the
East Asian crisis economies generally have taken advantage of the benign
external financial environment since their crises to run tight fiscal policy,
reduce their debt, and substantially increase their foreign exchange reserves.
They should have an easier time avoiding future difficulties than their coun-
terparts in Latin America.
Hanson points to a number of interesting structural developments in
both regions during the past few years. While countries in both regions con-
tinue to rely heavily on banks for intermediation, pension funds have grown
increasingly important in Latin America (Peru and Chile, in particular).
Domestic currency government and private corporate bond markets have
also developed in both regions, although trading in secondary markets
remains low. Banks have recovered, but Latin American bank deposits
remain low. In Latin America and Indonesia, banks’ holdings of government
debt have increased relative to deposits, crowding out private credit. This
represents a major challenge to growth and development since private credit
is a major factor in growth.
Banks also face some risks. The government debt carries market risk and
is not free from default risk. Private loans are riskier than they were, with
the most creditworthy private sector borrowers financing themselves abroad
- , ,
or in the domestic bond markets. Banks may lack the risk management
capacity to deal with their expansion into consumer, small-scale, and mort-
gage lending, a problem that hit Korea. Many borrowers in Latin America
continue to borrow in dollars, exposing themselves to currency risk, which
contributed to previous banking crises. Improvements are slowly occurring
in banks’ risk management techniques and the information and legal frame-
works on which sound lending depends.
State-owned banks, which were major factors in the previous crises, also
continue to be important financial institutions in both regions and are even
growing in some cases. In the current environment of tight fiscal and mone-
tary policy, governments face political pressure to use public sector banks as
economic policy instruments. The costs of this strategy are already becoming
clear in some Asian countries. Meanwhile, the well-known international
banks that once were thought to be a way to improve financial sector perfor-
mance have become less interested in expanding into most developing coun-
tries. Regional banks are expanding, but they offer fewer benefits than the
well-known international banks.
Finally, governments in both regions have strengthened prudential reg-
ulation of their banks, prodded and supported by the IMF–World Bank
Financial Sector Assessment Program. Most countries also have indicated
their intention gradually to adopt the about-to-be-implemented Basel II
capital standards. It remains to be seen whether these measures will prove
sufficient to prevent or minimize the damage from future financial crises,
especially given the political constraints facing their application.
Central and Eastern Europe, too, were touched by financial crises of
their own, but these were largely due to a wave of bank failures that arose
as their economies were transformed from centrally planned to market-
based economies, as discussed in chapter 3 of this volume by Fernando
Montes-Negret and Thomas Muller, both of the World Bank.
The “banks” that existed prior to this transformation were banks in
name only; in fact, these institutions were administrative agencies that sim-
ply held credits from state-owned enterprises on their “books.” When the
institutions were converted into “banks,” as part of the transformation to
market-based economies, these bookkeeping credits proved largely worth-
less. The banks thus found themselves with insufficient assets to back the
deposits that individuals and firms held in them.
At the same time, household assets were relatively liquid because the
shortage of goods in centrally planned economies left them with little alter-
native other than to hold their meager income as bank deposits or buy for-
-
eign exchange. The new governments therefore faced a macroeconomic
problem as well as a structural one: with a monetary “overhang,” the new
freedoms could have unleashed a wave of spending unmatched by the pro-
duction of goods, causing a major bout of inflation. Central banks attempted
to reduce that overhang by tightening credit, forcing so-called hard-budget
constraints on enterprises that were not used to them. The predictable result
was a wave of bankruptcies, which only reinforced the structural problems
in the “banks” that had once extended them credit.
The economies in the region took very different approaches to “clean-
ing up” their banking sectors, particularly in terms of transparency. In all
cases, however, some form of government infusion of funds was required
to make good on the deposits and compensate for the inevitable write-
downs of the banks’ previous credits. Most governments also attempted to
introduce some semblance of sound bank supervision, consistent with
international practice. But understandably, the countries did not have the
expertise to carry out this program effectively, especially as long as the banks
remained state owned and thus followed the directions of government lead-
ers rather than market norms.
A number of countries in the region tried to offset the domination of
their state-owned banks by allowing new entrants into commercial bank-
ing. But, as Montes-Negret and Muller discuss, many of these entrants were
too small to be efficient, lacked experience, and were undercapitalized and
thus the source of additional banking problems.
Notwithstanding all of these difficulties, the costs of banking problems in
Central and Eastern Europe, computed as a fraction of total output, turned
out to be substantially below the costs suffered by the crisis-ridden countries
in East Asia and Latin America and by Turkey and even Japan. The authors
suggest that in the European countries, the financial sectors were relatively
much smaller to begin with, so they suffered and caused less damage than in
countries where banks played a more central role in the economy.
Although the economies in the region during the transition period have
performed very differently, the authors suggest that certain common con-
clusions can be drawn from their experiences. For example, after suffering
initial downturns following the end of central planning, Central and East-
ern European economies generally have enjoyed real growth, as have their
financial sectors. At the same time, all countries in this part of the world
could benefit from increased financial depth (measured by the ratio of
financial assets to GDP) as well as stronger capital markets to supplement
the dominant role being played by banks.
- , ,
As for the country-level differences, the authors note that eight Eastern
European countries that later joined the European Union (EU) in 2004
outperformed, along several dimensions, other formerly centrally planned
economies that have transitioned toward some capitalism. They suggest
that the prospect of EU accession encouraged reforms and foreign capital
inflow that made this superior performance possible. Russia has benefited
from favorable commodity prices and fiscal discipline since its 1998 crisis,
but its banking and financial systems remain underdeveloped relative to
those of other countries in the authors’ survey. Central Asian economies,
in the authors’ words, seemed trapped in a “low-level equilibrium,” with
underdeveloped financial institutions and regulatory oversight. In South-
east Europe, financial sector development is very uneven, with Slovenia fur-
thest ahead, having joined the European Union; finance in the countries
that formerly made up Yugoslavia continues to be held back in the after-
math of civil conflict in the 1990s; and the financial sector is perhaps most
underdeveloped in Albania and Macedonia.
The well-known association between financial crises in the developing
world and external debt raises the obvious questions of whether external debt
is going to lead to a new crisis and, more fundamentally, whether sovereign
borrowing is an aid or a hindrance to economic growth. Indermit Gill and
Brian Pinto of the World Bank address these questions in chapter 4 of this
volume.
What is the likelihood of a sovereign debt–induced financial crisis in the
developing world in the near future? The authors suggest that, in light of
the frequency of past episodes, future crises always remain possible. Public
debt (external and internal) remains high in the major developing countries
with market access. Nonetheless, the authors argue that risks have receded
for several reasons.
Taking the East Asian crisis economies first, along with reasonably strong
growth, many of them have improved government balance sheets and now
have strong fiscal positions (except the Philippines). The buildup of inter-
national reserves should provide protection against “sudden stops” in capital
inflows.
The other four major crisis economies of recent years—Argentina, Brazil,
Russia, and Turkey—have taken very different roads to recovery. All four got
into trouble because of unsustainable exchange rate pegs, excessive sovereign
borrowing, and, in the last three cases, weak financial systems. When the gov-
ernments could not service foreign currency–denominated debt, they aban-
-
doned the currency pegs; Argentina went further and stopped payment on its
debt and later restructured it (to the consternation of its creditors). Russia also
restructured its debt, but through more of a negotiation than the unilateral
actions taken by Argentina. Brazil and Turkey adopted much tighter fiscal
policies. Since these actions, all of the economies have rebounded to varying
degrees. Primary fiscal surpluses (budget accounts minus interest payments)
now exist, in the cases of Brazil and Turkey at unprecedented rates. The coun-
tries are building up hard currency reserves, and the adoption of more flexi-
ble exchange rates also will help (by discouraging excessive foreign currency
borrowing). However, debt ratios remain uncomfortably high, especially in
Brazil and Turkey, and the sustainability of debt depends on continued high
primary surpluses, low international interest rates, and market confidence
that translates into continued low sovereign spreads.
Perhaps the best test of the success of measures taken so far is how the mar-
ket, specifically bond investors, has perceived them. By this test, the verdict,
at least at the time this paper was presented, looked good: for virtually all of
the countries that experienced a crisis within the last decade, interest rates rel-
ative to U.S. treasury bond rates have fallen significantly since the time they
were in trouble.
Does sovereign debt help or hinder growth? Government borrowing
(like private sector borrowing) can add to growth, provided borrowing
occurs in moderation and the proceeds are used for investment rather than
consumption. Crises, related to high debt, obviously slow growth. But even
without a crisis high debt can slow growth as a result of direct crowding out
of private investment, concerns about debt overhang, and reduced fiscal
space for public investment and social spending.
The authors do not identify a specific debt-to-GDP threshold that should
trigger concern, but they observe that the debt ratio seems high in a number
of prominent market access countries. Countries are responding, to varying
degrees, with fiscal discipline, changes in institutions to lock in fiscal disci-
pline, and reforms to speed growth.
An important challenge for developing-country governments in the future
is to manage foreign exchange risk and thus the risk of currency crises. One
response, in some cases related to financial sector bailouts, has been to develop
a domestic currency debt market and borrow more in domestic currency.
Innovations in debt instruments can help: one idea is to issue bonds with
interest payments tied to GDP growth (to help avoid unsustainable interest
rate burdens in years when the domestic economy may be performing poorly
- , ,
for exogenous reasons, such as a slump in commodity prices). However, it
appears that such instruments and markets will not play a major role in
easing the burden of developing-country debt for some time.
Peering into the future is a lot more difficult than explaining the past,
but Morris Goldstein of the Institute for International Economics takes up
the challenge in chapter 5 of this volume, speculating on what the next
emerging-market-economy financial crisis (banking, currency, or both)
might look like. Admittedly, at the time of this exercise, the likelihood of
such a crisis seemed lower than it had for some time: GDP growth in emerg-
ing markets in 2004 was the best in twenty years, primary prices were high,
and borrowing rates were low.
But Goldstein warns against complacency: very good times often precede
bad times. And the healthy averages conceal wide variation in country per-
formance: in 2004 more than fifty developing countries had current account
deficits exceeding 5 percent of GDP. And then there is the looming presence
of the “haircut” that Argentina forced its creditors to take on foreign currency
debt earlier this decade. When the next crisis occurs, investors may rightly
fear the same thing happening to them and thus bolt for the exits at the ear-
liest sign of trouble.
Of all the myriad things that could go wrong in the near future, Goldstein
singles out two for special attention: a bursting of the apparent “investment
bubble” in China and a sudden run from the U.S. dollar on account of the
large U.S. current account deficit. Moreover, the two events are not mutually
exclusive; they could happen simultaneously and thus have potentially syn-
ergistic negative effects on the world economy, emerging markets included.
China and the United States account for roughly 12 and 21 percent of
the world’s output, respectively, based on purchasing power parity exchange
rates. In 2003–04, the two economies together accounted for nearly half of
the world’s expansion in output. Clearly, therefore, a slowdown in one or
both economies could have potentially serious ripple effects on much of the
rest of the world.
The main risk that could arise from China comes from the likely slow-
down in its very high rate of investment, which as a share of GDP recently
hit an all-time record of 46 percent of GDP. Although Chinese officials ini-
tially denied that investment spending posed a problem, more recently, the
government has attempted to tighten monetary policy (through adminis-
trative controls and higher interest rates) in an effort to curb spending gen-
erally, which had pushed GDP up almost 10 percent in 2004. Of course,
another risk is the impact of a change in exchange rate policy. (After the
-
conference, this issue became more important when China announced a
slight revaluation of its currency in July 2005.) Goldstein lays out the pros
and cons of each of three possible future scenarios for the Chinese econ-
omy: a soft landing, a hard landing, and a long (but gradual) landing. He
sides with the long-landing view, implying that China’s GDP growth in
2006–07 could be 3–4 percentage points lower than in 2004.
Goldstein also outlines alternative “landing” scenarios for the U.S. cur-
rent account deficit. As his Institute for International Economics colleague
Michael Mussa (former chief economist of the International Monetary
Fund) has argued, one way or another, the U.S. current account deficit will
have to be reversed, and when that occurs, three interrelated things must
happen: (1) the dollar must depreciate against a basket of foreign currencies,
(2) domestic demand in the United States must grow more slowly than pro-
duction to make room for the additional exports that a weaker dollar will
stimulate, and (3) domestic demand elsewhere in the world will have to grow
faster than output to reduce net exports from the rest of the world. Yet when
and how fast these adjustments will take place is highly uncertain.
How will emerging markets fare if and when the Chinese and the U.S.
economies slow down or, worse, suffer sharp corrections? Clearly, the effects
will be negative, but they will be manifested in several ways. One is through
a decline in exports to a slumping China and the United States; through this
channel, Hong Kong and Korea, the largest exporters to China, would suf-
fer disproportionately, as would much of Latin America, which exports com-
modities to the United States and recently to China. European emerging
economies would be the least adversely affected.
A second channel through which emerging economies could suffer is
through higher interest rates in the United States, which the Federal Reserve
has been engineering and which is likely to slow capital flows to emerging
economies as a by-product. A higher U.S. dollar interest rate could also be a
by-product of a slowdown in China’s accumulation of U.S. government
debt. In a worst case, the contraction of capital flows and higher domestic
interest rates could precipitate another financial crisis, especially in countries
with weak banking systems. The negative impact could also spread to other
countries through “contagion” effects, similar to those displayed during the
Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The countries that will suffer the most
from high interest rates are those that still have high debt ratios, many of
which are countries that still have not recovered fully from earlier crises.
Emerging-market economies may be somewhat defenseless against shifts
in economic fortune because it is difficult for them, in a global environment,
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to run independent and effective countercyclical macroeconomic policies.
Countries with relatively low levels of sovereign debt to begin with are likely
to be best able to carry out effective countercyclical economic policy (because
foreign investors will not necessarily flee from the country when its govern-
ment attempts to offset a downturn with stimulus).
What do institutions with real money at risk believe about the outlook
for emerging economies? A panel of three experts from major commercial
banks and rating agencies offered their views at the time of the conference,
which are summarized in chapter 6.
David Wyss from Standard and Poor’s was much more optimistic about
the general outlook for emerging markets than Goldstein. While he acknowl-
edged that credit ratings are not perfect, he found it nonetheless a signifi-
cant sign of optimism that the ratings of emerging markets had improved
markedly in recent years. Wyss also was much less alarmed than others at the
conference about the U.S. federal budget deficit, which he noted was not out
of line with the deficits of other industrial countries. He was more concerned,
though, about the large and growing U.S. current account deficit and the
danger that foreign central banks would suddenly be unwilling to continue
buying large volumes of U.S. government debt, thereby removing the financ-
ing of the large U.S. current account deficit and the associated large demand
for U.S. assets.
Don Hanna of Citigroup noted that foreign central banks that are buying
U.S. dollars are doing so out of their free will and presumably are making
rational decisions in doing so. Indeed, in countries such as China where for-
mal domestic interest rates are lower than in the United States, the central
banks are making money in the short run through such purchases (although
they are also assuming the risks of capital losses in the future if the dollar
should decline in value).
On another subject, although better regulation supports higher credit rat-
ings on Asian securities, Hanna questioned how much transparency in finan-
cial reporting had really improved in the region since the 1997–98 crisis.
Furthermore, enforcing legal rights in some countries, such as China, can
still be quite expensive.
Khalid Sheikh of ABN Amro was more nervous than the other two panel-
ists, highlighting the possibility that some unforeseen event could trigger an
economic downturn in emerging markets. In particular, since other Asian
economies have become so dependent on the Chinese market, any slowdown
of China’s economic growth could have significant negative effects in the rest
of the region. Furthermore, some of the countries that have been buying dol-
-
lars have also had difficulty sterilizing the dollar inflows, which creates a dan-
ger of inflation.
The financial sector, and the banking system in particular, has been at
the heart of the financial crises discussed in this volume. To what extent
have countries since introduced reforms to address the weaknesses that con-
tributed to their difficulties in the first place? This is the topic of chapter 7,
by Gerard Caprio and Patrick Honohan of the World Bank.
The authors observe that, in most cases, banks in crisis countries took
speculative or unhedged foreign exchange positions that later contributed to
their difficulties and to problems in the financial sectors generally, when gov-
ernments were forced by events (and dwindling reserves) to float their cur-
rencies. In a few cases, like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, outright
fraud played an important role in the banking crises.
The authors discuss several features of how the financial crises in these
countries were resolved. Although there were many differences among coun-
tries, the authors note that there also were common features. For example,
with a few exceptions, banking difficulties in the crisis countries were con-
fined to a minority of institutions and were not widespread throughout entire
banking systems. In addition, problems arose at both public and privately
owned banks. Governments rarely addressed banking problems quickly and
all at once; instead they tended to recapitalize failed institutions in successive
waves. Sharp currency depreciations typically affected the timing, nature, and
scale of these recapitalizations.
The authors examine the postcrisis performance of thirty-eight countries
that have suffered crises (a few more than once) since 1994. Again, despite
the country variations, some interesting common features stand out. On
average, GDP growth in the three years following the crisis was lower than
in the three years preceding it; the same was true with inflation (suggesting
that, with less pressure from domestic demand, prices were not pushed up
as rapidly as in the precrisis period). Almost all countries increased their
“financial depth” postcrisis—that is, deposits flowed into the banking sys-
tems, during and as they were repaired. The experience with bank credit
postcrisis was much more varied; in some cases it grew, while in others it
shrank (suggesting that government debt rose rather than loans to private
borrowers, partly because of the postcrisis bank restructurings). At the same
time, interest rate margins—the “spreads” between banks’ earnings from
interest and the costs of funds—have fallen pretty uniformly since the cri-
sis episodes. In addition, the crises have moved varying amounts of owner-
ship of banks into private and, especially, foreign hands.
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One silver lining to the black cloud of financial crises is that experience
has produced a reasonable degree of consensus about how to resolve trou-
bled financial institutions. Ideally, the process should be clear and trans-
parent, and banks’ nonperforming assets should be removed as quickly as
possible and sold to private investors. Parallel work should be done on
strengthening the banks’ main clients, the corporate sector. Losses should
not be fully socialized. Government aid should “fill the hole” in the balance
sheets of failed banks created by the loan and other losses that contributed
to the failures, but only as part of recapitalization plans that draw in new,
private capital and management to run the bank thereafter. Although for-
eign capital and expertise can often make a real difference, it is not always
a panacea. If capital and management—domestic or foreign—cannot be
attracted, then the institutions should be liquidated. The authors discuss
specific additional principles for special situations, such as what to do with
failed state-owned banks, how to realize value most efficiently and prof-
itably for the banks’ nonperforming assets, and how and to what extent to
protect depositors.
In reality, countries varied in how closely they conformed to these “best
practices.” The authors suggest that many deficiencies in the implementation
of “resolution policy” can be attributed to limited administrative capacity and
limited independence from political elites who run the countries.
In addition to these lessons for authorities whose financial system has
just emerged from a crisis, the authors conclude with a series of broader rec-
ommendations for developing countries in building productive and stable
financial sectors in the future, including the advisability of attracting for-
eign banks and other financial institutions, reducing the reliance on banks,
encouraging more intermediation through capital markets, and relying
more heavily on markets than on regulators to discipline banks and prevent
them from taking undue risks. They note that the lack of access to finan-
cial services in many developing countries is a source of vulnerability for
emerging markets, not least because it could prompt calls, already being
heard, for the return of development banks and subsidized credit schemes,
which the authors warn could, as in the past in many countries, undermine
financial sector development.
Finally, looking ahead, one of the larger financial challenges confronting
all emerging-market economies (and developed countries too) is the pension
system. Populations are aging, but the traditional way of providing support
for the elderly—the extended family—is being eroded by migration and
urbanization. At the same time, the standard pay-as-you-go pension systems
-
for government and formal sector workers have become costly in many
developing countries. Many countries have followed Chile and put in place
some sort of fully funded system of individual pension accounts, but ques-
tions have arisen about these systems. In chapter 8, the last paper in this vol-
ume, Robert Holzmann of the World Bank examines these issues, drawing
on a longer study by a World Bank team.
Holzmann argues that successful reform of pensions depends first of all on
a careful consideration of whether the macroeconomic and fiscal environ-
ment can support the reform. It also depends on a credible commitment aris-
ing from the political economy of the country and a buy-in by the country’s
leadership. Finally, it depends on creating appropriate regulatory and super-
visory arrangements and building capacity and governance to deal with the
complex, intertemporal problems of providing retirement income. In reform-
ing pensions, careful attention to the secondary developmental benefits of
pensions is also necessary. Pensions are, after all, a claim on future economic
output and should therefore be designed to leverage positive impacts from
saving and financial market development and to reduce potential negative
impacts on labor markets and macroeconomic stability.
Holzmann suggests that pension reform is now becoming based on five
subsystems or pillars. In addition to the three well-known pillars—a pub-
lic system linked to earnings and usually with pay-as-you-go financing; a
mandatory, fully funded, and privately managed system (essentially an indi-
vidual savings account or variant of the Chilean model); and voluntary sav-
ings for retirement—there is a basic, “zero” pillar to deal with poverty
among the elderly and a nonfinancial pillar that involves intrafamily sup-
port, access to health care, the housing status of the elderly, and so forth.
To be sure, this is an ideal system, and not every country has the resources
to have all pillars—pension systems must be affordable and not create
macroeconomic instability—but the full system is something to which all
countries can aspire.
Holzmann concentrates the latter part of his chapter on three areas of the
mandatory, fully funded, privately managed pillar that have drawn atten-
tion: country readiness and regulatory and supervisory issues, containment
of fees and costs, and annuities for retirees, an often overlooked issue when
systems are set up. Generally, most countries are ready to implement some
sort of fully funded, privately managed pillar. The exceptions are countries
with chronic macroeconomic imbalances. A credible macroeconomic frame-
work and a sound banking system are preconditions for a sound pension sys-
tem. For countries with immature markets, tight regulation and supervision
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