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INTRODUCTION TO FIXED INCOME SECURITIES A PRIMER FROM FUNDSUPERMART.COM INDIA
So the kinds of volatility changes we are observing as consequences of (large) changes in option holdings may in fact be caused by quite substantially different manager behavior. In addition, we should not overlook the possibility that the movements we observe are caused by a small number of truly titanic business shifts encouraged by option holdings (say, Encyclopaedia Britannica choosing to put a large fraction of it’s resources and corporate health into a bet on britannica.com), together with a larger number of firms where the option grants have little or no effect on manager behavior....
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Liquidity risk and expected stock returns - Robert F Stambaugh
The current Alberta law governing transfers of investment securities is found in the Alberta Business Corporations Act (ABCA). Like the provisions in most other Canadian Business Corporations Acts, it is based upon the pre- 1962 version of Article 8 of the U.S. Uniform Commercial Code (UCC). It relies upon the concepts of possession and delivery of a physical object - the negotiable security certificate. At one time, the settlement of a normal securities transaction involved the actual delivery of certificates between buyers and sellers, but this was a laborious...
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Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors
Our notion of what triggers a boom-bust cycle is very stylized: the signal occurs on a particular date and people learn that it is exactly false on another particular date. In more realistic scenarios, people form expectations based on an accumulation of various signals. If people’s expectations are in fact overoptimistic, they come to this realization only slowly and over time. Although the trigger of the boom-bust cycle in our analysis is in some ways simplistic, it has the advantage of allowing us to highlight a result that we think is likely to survive in more realistic settings....
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A GUIDE FOR SENIORS PROTECT YOURSELF AGAINST INVESTMENT FRAUD
Our results are as follows. We find that - within the confines of the set of models we consider - it is hard to account for a boom-bust episode (an episode in which consumption, investment, output, employment and the stock market all rise sharply and then crash) in a model that abstracts from nominal frictions. However, when we introduce an inflation targeting central bank and sticky nominal wages, a theory of boom-busts emerges naturally. In our environment, inflation targeting suboptimally converts what would otherwise be a small economic fluctuation into a major boom- bust episode. In this sense, our analysis is consistent with the view that boom-bust episodes...
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Strategic Investment Plan for Intelligence Community Analysis
Our results are based on model simulations, and so the credibility of the findings depends on the plausibility of our model. For the purpose of our results here, the two cornerstones of our model are sticky wages and an estimated Taylor rule. That the latter is a reasonable way to capture monetary policy has almost become axiomatic. Sticky wages have also emerged in recent years as a key feature of models that fit the data well (see, for example, the discussion in Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (2005).) The view that wage-setting frictions are key to understanding aggregate fluctuations is also reached by a very different type of...
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Predictive Accuracy of Political Stock Markets Empirical Evidence from a European Perspective
That sticky wages and inflation targeting are uneasy bedfellows is easy to see. When wages are sticky, an inflation targeting central bank in effect targets the real wage. This produces inefficient outcomes when shocks occur which require an adjust- ment to the real wage (Erceg, Henderson and Levin (2000).) For example, suppose a shock - a positive oil price shock, say - occurs which reduces the value marginal product of labor. Preventing a large fall in employment under these circumstances wouldrequireadropintherealwage.Withstickywagesandaninflation-targeting central bank, the required fall in the real wage would not occur and employment would be inefficiently low....
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Presented to the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of the University of Fribourg (Switzerland) in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Economics and Social Sciences
When there are frictions in setting nominal wages, however, a riseintherealwagerequiresthatinflationbeallowedtodriftdown.Theinflation targeting central bank, seeing this drift down in inflation, cuts the interest rate to keep inflation on target. In our model, this cut in the interest rate triggers a credit boom and makes the economic expansion much bigger than is socially optimal. In a situation like this, a central bank that ‘leans against the wind’ when credit expands sharply would raise welfare by reducing the magnitude of the boom-bust cycle....
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Stock Market Uncertainty and the Relation between Stock and Bond Returns
Thenotionthatinflation targeting increases the likelihood of stock market boom- bust episodes contradicts conventional wisdom. We take it that the conventional wisdom is defined by the work of Bernanke and Gertler (2000), who argue that an inflation-targeting monetary authority automatically stabilizes the stock market. The reason for this is that in the Bernanke-Gertler environment, inflation tends to rise in a stock market boom, so that an inflation targeter would raise interest rates, moderating the rise in stock prices....
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MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139
So far, we have stressed that integrating nominal variables and inflation targeting into the analysis is merely helpful for understanding boom-bust episodes. In fact, if one is not to wander too far from current standard models, it is essential. To clarify this point, it is useful to think of the standard real business cycle model that emerges when we strip away all monetary factors from our model. If we take a completely standard version of such a model, a signal shock is completely incapable of generating a boom-bust that resembles anything like what we see. Households in effect react to the signal by going on vacation: consumption...
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DEAR CLIENT, SAVE THE DATE “ESN EUROPEAN CONFERENCE” London, 11th December 2012
So, our real business cycle model cannot simultaneously generate a rise in the price of capital and a rise in investment, in response to a signal about future produc- tivity. The real business cycle model has two additional shortcomings. It generates an extremely large jump in the real interest rate and it generates very little per- sistence. It really only generates a boom-bust pattern in consumption, investment, employment and output when the signal is about a shock that will occur four quar- ters in the future. If the signal is about a shock, say, 12 quarters in the future, agents go on an 8 quarter vacation and...
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A Guide to Fisheries Stock Assessment using the FMSP Tools
Table 1 contains a summary, by species, of the information included in the stock assessments, and also indicates those that have been revised since the 1999 publication. A total of 28 of the 60 Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico stock assessment reports were revised for 2000. Most of the proposed changes incorporate new information into sections on population size and mortality estimates. The revised SARs include 15 strategic and 13 non-strategic stocks. For the first time, individual species abundance estimates are available for the Western North Atlantic Stocks of Atlantic spotted and Pantropical spotted dolphins. The Rmax value for...
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Semiannual Risk Perspective From the National Risk Committee
After analyzing the simple monetary model, we move on to the full monetary model of Christiano, Motto and Rostagno (2006). That model incorporates a banking sector and the financial frictions in Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). This model is interesting for two reasons. First, we use the model to investigate the robustness of our findings for boom-busts. We feed the model the same signal about future technology that turns out to be false that we fed to our real business cycle and simple monetary models. We find that the full and simple monetary models behave quite similarly. The second reason it is interesting to study boom-bust episodes...
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Purified Sentiment Indicators For The Stock Market
New amendments signed into law in August 2003 provide greater protec- tion to people who invest their hard-earned money and, all too often, find they are victims of unscrupulous con-artists.The amendments target indi- viduals who use false financial statements to induce people to invest their money. They also make it a violation for employees of brokers and advisers to engage in unethical behavior and to fail to maintain records and docu- ments required by law. In addition, the amendments allow the appointment of special agents to exercise police powers against those committing finan- cial crimes, and also strengthen the chances of returning investor assets to defrauded investors by including...
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DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND
North Korea’s centrifuge program poses both a horizontal and a vertical proliferation threat. It is an avenue for North Korea to increase the number and sophistication of its nuclear weapons and for it to proliferate to others who seek to build their own centrifuge programs. As a result, the priority is finding ways to either stop the program or to delay its progress through a combination of negotiations and sanctions. Procurement data obtained by governments and information from Pakistan, establish that North Korea is developing centrifuges. However, determining the centrifuge program’s status and the locations ...
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Stock Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Critical Issues and Challenges
Faced with uncertainties in assessments of North Korea’s centrifuge program, the U.S. intelligence community focused on the significance of the 2007 and 2008 discoveries of traces of highly enriched uranium (HEU) found on North Korean aluminum tubes and operating records for the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The discoveries raised anew concerns that North Korea had a secret gas centrifuge plant operating by the mid-2000s, contradicting assessments based on procurement data. The enriched uranium particles remain the most direct evidence that North Korea has produced highly enriched uranium. But the reported lack of consensus on their meaning warrants...
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Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and International Stock Markets
North Korea has stated it intends to build a large enrichment plant this decade, and there is no reason to doubt its intentions. To succeed, North Korea will likely need to overcome several technical challenges. North Korea could also face additional difficulties in completing the plant as a result of actions by the United Nations Security Council and the broader international community. The most effective way to end the threats posed by North Korea’s centrifuge program is through negotiations, even though that route currently looks difficult. If discussions with North Korea resume, negotiators...
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Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Equally important, negotiators should focus early on obtaining a North Korean commitment that it will halt illicit procurements from abroad for its nuclear programs and end the proliferation of its nuclear technology. The latter is especially important for negotiations to establish in a verifiable manner. While waiting for negotiations to bear fruit, the United States and its allies will face two interconnected challenges. They must slow down North Korea’s centrifuge program, or at least make progress more costly and visible to the international community. In addition, they must ensure that North Korea does not...
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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT FUNDS) REGULATIONS
North Korea frequently procures for its uranium enrichment program either directly in China or by using it as a transshipment point. China is unlikely to view North Korea’s continued illicit procurement for its nuclear program as strengthening Chinese national security interests. Most believe that China views North Korea’s nuclear weapons program as destabilizing to the region. Likewise, there is no evidence that the Chinese government is secretly approving or willfully ignoring exports to North Korea’s centrifuge program in an effort to strengthen North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Nonetheless, China is not applying enough resources to detect and...
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WHAT DRIVES EU BANKS’ STOCK RETURNS? BANK-LEVEL EVIDENCE USING THE DYNAMIC DIVIDEND-DISCOUNT MODEL
Since mid-2009, North Korea has admitted it has a uranium enrichment program and implied that it will enrich uranium on a significant scale in the near future. After years of denial, North Korea mentioned its uranium enrichment program in public statements as tensions increased following its ballistic missile test in April 2009, its May 2009 nuclear test, and the subsequent imposition of United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korean trading entities. Despite its announcements, determining when it may produce significant quantities of highly enriched uranium (HEU) remains challenging. Although North Korea has not provided...
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Taking Stock: North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Program
Interpreting these elliptic announcements is challenging, but most believe that North Korea is unlikely to be bluffing about pursuing uranium enrichment. Moreover, few believe that if North Korea does build an enrichment plant, the enriched uranium will be strictly for peaceful nuclear uses. More likely, the plant will produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Fueling this assessment, North Korea has not demonstrated any capability to build a light water reactor, which requires a range of technological capabilities that are lacking in the country. However, it is unclear whether North Korea can successfully build and...
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320 Investments—Debt and Equity Securities 10 Overall
Since the passage of resolution 1874 in 2009, the panel of experts did not learn of any official allegations about North Korea receiving or providing proscribed nuclear-related or ballistic missile-related items, technology, or know-how. Nonetheless, its review of several government, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and private assessments indicated continuing North Korean involvement in nuclear and ballistic missile related activities in certain countries, including Iran, Syria, and Myanmar. 8 Potential customers of centrifuge technology remain hard to identify with certainty. But the reclusive military regime in Myanmar may have already benefited from North Korean largesse in...
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ILLINOIS SECURITIES LAW OF 1953
The market prices of bank securities, such as equities, provide important in- formation for market participants, for central banks with Önancial stability re- sponsibilities, and for bank supervisors, from at least Öve di§erent perspectives. First, a bankí s equity price may e§ectively summarise all the public informa- tion available from the bank, including potential risks, in one number. Second, when working under the e¢ cient-market hypothesis, banksísecurities prices at any point in time have a forward looking component in that they incorporate expectations of both positive and negative future earnings prospects. Third, the banksíshare price information is available at much higher frequency compared with accounting information. Fourth, as Önancial...
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Monetary Policy and Stock Market Boom-Bust Cycles∗
Our analysis also contributes to assessing market e¢ ciency in a way that it investigates how the markets price in information about banks and how this process may di§er across di§erent types of banks. To that end, we apply a large panel of 53 EU banks using a stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) sys- tem that allows us to focus on such Örm-level e§ects. A further contribution to the literature is provided by the fact that we also want to analyse whether large banksístock prices could be a§ected by di§erent factors than small banksí stock prices. This could have important implications from the point of view of Önancial stability...
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HIGH CARBON STOCK FOREST STUDY REPORT
To keep our analysis focused, we abstract from other channels emphasized in the literature through which expectations may have an immediate impact on current economic activity such as time-to-build, capital adjustment costs, or consumption smoothing. Also, it should be clear that we do not believe that the economic expansion experienced by the U.S. economy during the second half of the 1990s was entirely driven by expectations of future higher productivity growth. Rather, we see our explanation as complementary to the actual improvement in firm level technology which, for simplicity, we omit from the analysis. Section 1 reviews the main events experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1990s. Section 2...
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REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR
Recent imperfect capital market theories (e.g., Bernanke and Gertler (1989), Gertler and Gilchrist (1994), Kiyotaki and Moore (1997)) predict that changing credit market conditions can have very di®erent e®ects on small and large ¯rms' risk. Agency costs induced by asymmetry in the infor- mation held by ¯rms and their creditors make it necessary for ¯rms to use collateral when borrowing in the credit markets. Small ¯rms, it is argued, typically do not have nearly as much collateral as large ¯rms and will not have the same ability to raise external funds. Therefore, small ¯rms will be more adversely a®ected by lower liquidity and higher short-term interest rates....
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Does Weak Governance Cause Weak Stock Returns? An Examination of Firm Operating Performance and Investors’ Expectations
Such theories do not simply have the cross-sectional implication that small ¯rms' risk will be more strongly a®ected by tighter credit markets in all eco- nomic states. Based on the idea that a decline in a borrower's net worth raises the agency cost on external ¯nance, the theories identify asymmetries in the e®ect of tighter credit market conditions on risk during recessions and expansions. In a recession, small ¯rms' net worth, and hence their collateral, will be lower than usual and tighter credit markets will be associated with stronger adverse e®ects than during an expansion when these ¯rms' collateral is higher. ...
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The Regulation of Investment Advisers by The Securities and Exchange Commission
Investor relations is the term used to describe the ongoing activity of companies communicating with the investment community. While the communication that quoted companies undertake is a mix of regulatory and voluntary activities, investor relations is essentially the part of stock market life that sees companies interacting with existing shareholders, potential investors, analysts and journalists. As this guide details, investor relations can take many forms, for example, meetings with investors, company news-releases, annual reports and websites. The commonality however, is that each of the communication tools that companies utilise are designed to inform stakeholders about the company, so that they can gain a greater understanding...
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EMERGING STOCK MARKETS AFTER THE CRISIS
One of the outcomes quoted companies aim for from their investor relations activities is to attract liquidity – frequency of trading in their shares. Profiling and explaining the company to the investment community on a continual basis can assist in creating greater awareness of a company Depending on the availability of shares, this can then assist a company in attracting pools of buyers and sellers and the potential for higher frequency in the trading of its shares. Fair valuation Similarly, one of the other main goals of investor relations is for a company to achieve a fair market valuation, ultimately reflected in the share...
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The Impact of U.S. Firms’ Investments in Human Capital on Stock Prices
Practising investor relations will not automatically guarantee a company heightened profile, easy access to capital, liquidity in its shares or a fair share price. Naturally, other factors outside and in addition to a company’s own activities, such as the economic situation, a company’s fundamentals, confidence in its management team, the availability of shares and competition for investors’ money, can have an impact on how a company is perceived, funded, traded and valued by the market. Rather, the aim of embarking on an ongoing investor relations programme is that it enables the investment community to have greater awareness of the company’s investment...
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Investment Securities Comptroller’s Handbook (Section 203)
Institutional investors are, by some margin, the most important category of investor to quoted companies owing to the sheer weight of assets that they manage and the degree to which they can invest. It is widely acknowledged that institutional investors own the vast majority of the UK equity market. In some cases, institutional investors may also own nearly all of a company’s issued share capital. Their influence extends beyond their total assets under management since, compared to individual private investors, investment decision making, including voting, is concentrated in a much smaller group of individuals. A key attraction of institutional investors to...
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