The Shipbuilding and Force Structure Analysis Tool

Mark V. Arena · John F. Schank · Megan Abbott THE SHIPBUILDING& FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS TOOL A USER’S GUIDE Prepared for the U.S. Navy Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited R NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was sponsored by the U.S. Navy. The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the Office of the Secretay of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Arena, Mark V. Shipbuilding and force structure analysis tool : a user’s guide / Mark V.Arena, John F. Schank, Megan Abbott. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MR-1743.” ISBN 0-8330-3484-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States. Navy—Procurement—Mathematical models. 2. Warships— United States—Design and construction—Mathematical models. 3. Shipbuilding industry—United States—Mathematical models. 4. Military planning—United States—Mathematical models. I. Schank, John F. (John Frederic), 1946– II. Abbott, Megan E., 1971– III.Title. VC263.A798 2003 359.6`84`028557565—dc22 2003019132 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2004 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org PREFACE Periodic defense reviews require analysts to address difficult questions regarding the Navy’s ship force structure, resource levels and allocations, and the shipbuilding industrial base. While a range of tools is available to assist analysts in their decisionmaking, the need for improvement exists. In earlier research, RAND identified the types of issues that arise during major defense reviews and described the abilities of the tools currently available to address those issues. RAND also described an overarching analytical architecture that could assist the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), Navy, and other organizations in addressing the difficult naval ship–related questions. This document describes the effort to implement the integrated architecture as outlined in the earlier work. Also contained in this document are detailed user instructions (see the Appendices) for those interested in exercising the analytical capability of the tool. The Assessments Division of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Resources, Warfare Requirements, and Assessment (OPNAV/N81) sponsored this portion of the research. The research should be of interest to OSD and Navy policymakers, planners, and analysts concerned with shipbuilding resource requirements and industrial base. This research was conducted for the U.S. Navy within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of RAND’s National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies. iii CONTENTS Preface .............................................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................................. ix Tables................................................................................................ xiii Summary .......................................................................................... xv Acknowledgments ........................................................................... xix Acronyms.......................................................................................... xxi Chapter One INTRODUCTION...................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................... 1 Past Studies: Methods and Their Limitations......................... 3 A New Model: Learning from Past Limitations ...................... 5 Shipbuilding and Force Structure Analysis Tool.................... 6 Chapter Two AN OVERVIEW OF THE ANALYSIS TOOL............................... 9 Fundamentals of the Tool’s Architecture ............................... 9 Key Concepts of the Tool ......................................................... 13 Stored Data and Data Sets.................................................... 13 Main Inputs ........................................................................... 14 Main Outputs......................................................................... 15 Force Transition Model: An Overview..................................... 17 How the Model Generates a Shipbuilding Plan.................. 17 The Industrial Base Model: An Overview................................ 21 The O&S Cost Model: An Overview ......................................... 22 v ... - tailieumienphi.vn