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BENEFITCOST ANALYSIS Financial and Economic Appraisal using Spreadsheets
Chapter 9: Risk Analysis
©Harry Campbell & Richard Brown School of Economics
The University of Queensland
Risk and Uncertainty
In the preceding chapters we assumed all costs and benefits are known with certainty.
The future is uncertain:
• factors internal to the project • factors external to the project
Where the possible values could have significant impact on project’s profitability, a decision will involve taking a risk.
In some situations, degree of risk can be objectively determined. Estimating probability of an event usually involves subjectivity.
Risk and Uncertainty
In risk analysis different forms of subjectivity need to be addressed in deciding:
• what the degree of uncertainty is;
• whether the uncertainty constitutes a significant risk; • whether the risk is acceptable.
Sensitivity Analysis
Establishing the extent to which the outcome is sensitive to the assumed values of the inputs:
• it tells how sensitive the outcome is to changes in input values; • it doesn’t tell us what the likelihood of an outcome is.
Table 9.1: Sensitivity Analysis Results: NPVs for Hypothetical Road Project ($ millions at 10% discount rate)
Road Usage Benefits
Construction Costs
75% 100% 125% High $50 $40 $30 Medium $47 $36 $25 Low $43 $32 $20
Risk Modeling
Risk modeling is the use of discrete probability distributions to compute expected value of variable rather than point estimate.
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