Qualitative Forecasting

The Delphi Method: drawing upon the group’s expertise by getting individual submissions, without the drawback of face to face meetings. The Delphi Method is named after a famous Oracle who prophesied in the ancient Greek city of Delphi. An Oracle (wise person) interceded between men and gods. Ch 4 Qualitative Forecasting Using expert opinion and collective experience to unlock the secrets of the future. 1 The keys to employing qualitative forecasting are: ¨Data as an historical series is not ava

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Ch 4 Qualitative Forecasting Using expert opinion and collective experience to unlock the secrets of the future. 1 The keys to employing qualitative forecasting are: ¨Data as an historical series is not available,or is not relevant to future needs. ¨An unusual product or a unique project is being contemplated. 2 Keys:- ¨There are numerous variables which will affect the project. 3 Keys: ¨The project’s life is longer than the safe extrapolation of a time series. Sales by Year, With Automatic Twenty Year Prediction 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 4 Keys: ¨Experts are available, and should debate the issues. 5 ... - tailieumienphi.vn

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