Modeling the Departure of Military Pilots from the Services

R Modeling the Departure of Military Pilots from the Services Marc N. Elliott Kanika Kapur Carole Roan Gresenz Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense National Defense Research Institute Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RAND’s National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Elliott, Marc N., 1966– Modeling the departure of military pilots from the service / Marc N. Elliott, Kanika Kapur, Carole Roan Gresenz. p. cm. “MR-1327-OSD.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2976-2 1. Air pilots, Military—Job satisfaction—United States. 2. Air pilots, Military—United States—Retirement. 3. United States. Air Force—Appointments and retirements. 4. United States. Air Force—Officers. I. Kapur, Kanika. II. Gresenz, Carole Roan, 1969– III. Title. UG793 .E45 2001 358.4`114`0973—dc21 2001019039 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s pub-lications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2004 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org iii Preface This study evaluates the effects of hiring by major airlines and changes in military compensation on the voluntary departure of male pilots from the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps. Our results should be of interest to those concerned about pilot attrition, as well as the larger defense manpower research community, and those interested in the modeling of pilot attrition. We assume that readers will have some familiarity with linear regression techniques. This analysis was conducted between 1998 and 2000. The information on compensation and bonuses reflects the situation at the time the analysis was conducted, and some of the specific figures may no longer be accurate. Regardless, the general results about the relationship between hiring in the airline industry and military pilot retention are still relevant. This report was prepared under the sponsorship of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Personnel & Readiness. It was prepared within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies. v Contents Preface .................................................. iii Figures .................................................. vii Tables .................................................. ix Summary................................................. xi Acknowledgments .......................................... xiii 1. INTRODUCTION....................................... 1 2. CAREER PATHS OF PILOTS IN THE MILITARY AND CIVILIAN AIRLINES ............................................ 5 Military Careers ........................................ 5 Active Duty Service Obligation ............................ 5 Earnings of Aviation Officers ............................. 6 Civilian Careers ........................................ 9 The Commercial Airline Industry .......................... 10 Joining the Commercial Airlines: When? ..................... 12 3. BEHAVIORAL MODEL AND DATA......................... 17 The Approach of This Study ............................... 17 Military Data and File Construction ........................ 18 Limitations of the Data .................................. 20 Levels of Attrition at ADSO .............................. 23 Civilian Data ......................................... 25 Issues in Specification of the Pilot Attrition Model ............... 26 Dependent Variable .................................... 26 Independent Variables .................................. 27 Military and Civilian Opportunities ........................ 31 Construction of Estimated Military Pay Profiles ................ 33 Civilian Pay Profiles.................................... 33 4. MODEL RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES .............. 35 5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ......................... 43 Appendix A. OFFICER PROMOTION PATHS ............................ 45 Promotion Rates and Timetables ............................ 45 Responsibilities over a Career .............................. 45 B. PREVIOUS APPROACHES TO ESTIMATING MODELS OF AVIATOR ATTRITION................................... 47 Models Using Aggregate Data and/or Military/Civilian Pay Ratios ............................................ 47 Cost of Leaving Models................................... 48 Dynamic Retention Models ................................ 50 Other Models of Attrition ................................. 51 ... - tailieumienphi.vn