Investment Views Asia 1st quarter 2013

Investment Views Asia 1st quarter 2013 Contents Foreword 3 Current market assessment 4 1. Focus Asian outlook 6 Asian selection 8 2. Countries China / Hong Kong 10 Singapore 12 Malaysia 14 Indonesia 16 South Korea 18 Thailand 20 Australia 22 Investment management mandates 24 Contacts 25 3. Notes Methodology 28 Glossary 28 Disclaimer 30 Foreword Asia – the bright spot Dear Reader The start of a new year is traditionally a time for crystal ball gazing. We peer into the future with a mixture of hope, anxiety and foreboding. Will we stay healthy? What challenges will face us at work? Will the world stay safe for our loved ones? We simply don’t know, of course. But we are not powerless. By taking sensible precautions we can make it more likely that things will turn out the way we want. This also applies to VP Bank’s investment strategy. We cannot change the economic realities, but we can still make sensible and rewarding investment decisions based on a careful assessment of risks and opportunities. Economic reality in 2013 will again be rather sombre in many parts of the world. Progress has been made in tackling the eurozone debt crisis, but the economic consequences of this financial debacle have left deep wounds in the affected countries and are seriously undermining the performance of the global economy. World trade is stagnating, and investment growth is being stifled by uncertainty. The eurozone will register zero growth in 2013, while America will feel the impact of the compromise agreement on circumnavigating the “fiscal cliff”. We expect US growth in 2013 to lag behind the consensus forecast. It is now clear that the industrialised world is facing a succession of lean years. The 2009 crisis and its economic repercussions were under-estimated. The clean-up of public finances and the restructuring of economic models will take longer than even the pessimists expected. The bright spot is Asia. Here too, economic momentum is less vigorous than in the past, but the Asia-Pacific region is buoyant compared with the rest of the world. Indeed, these economies are now the driving force behind global growth. This second issue of Investment Views Asia will, we hope, provide you with useful guidance when making investment decisions in Asian markets. Our analysts paint a mixed picture. While China is getting into its stride again thanks to massive infrastructure spending, other countries (notably Thailand) will face slower growth this year. Equity market prospects vary greatly from country to country. This makes it all the more important to carry out a detailed assessment that takes due account of economic fundamentals, corporate positioning and market valuation. Asia cannot be treated as a homogeneous whole. Our analysis focuses on the specifics of each country and market. A new feature of this issue is the article on Australia. This country deserves special attention as an important investment destination in the Asia-Pacific region. We wish you an enjoyable read and a successful 2013. Reto Isenring Managing Director VP Bank (Singapore) Ltd. Current market assessment The tables below summarise VP Bank`s trend assessments for all asset classes in our investment universe. The arrows reflect the forecasts of our investment strategists for the coming three to six months. The trends for currencies and equities indicate expected percentage changes in value. The bond assessments indicate expected changes in yields, expressedin basis points. The symbols are explained in the key at the bottom of the page. Currencies EUR vs. USD JPY vs. USD AUD vs. USD CNY vs. USD HKD vs.USD SGD vs. USD KRW vs. USD MYR vs.USD IDR vs.USD THB vs.USD Bond yields Japan China Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Emerging market bonds, general Hard currency EMA Local currency EMA October 2012 January 2013 New New New New New New Key interest rates Japan China Hong Kong South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Equities Europe North America Pacific • Japan • Australia • Singapore Emerging markets • China • Indonesia • Thailand • South Korea • Malaysia October 2012 n.a. n.a. January 2013 New New New New New New Currencies – Expected appreciation/depreciation: > +5% +2% to +5% –2% to +2% –5% to –2% < –5% Bond yields, key interest rates – Upside/downside ranges indicated by our 3–6 month absolute performance assessments: > +50 basis points +25 basis points No change –25 basis points <–50 basis points Equities – Upside/downside ranges indicated by our 3–6 month absolute performance assessments: > +5% +2% to +5% –2% to +2% –5% to –2% < –5% 1.Focus ... - tailieumienphi.vn