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Ch15:ForecastingandAnalyzing RisksinPropertyInvestments
Applying Quantitative and Qualitative Forecasting Methods,Together With Risk Analysis, to Evaluate Real Estate Investments.
1 Clicktobeginpresentation.
PropertyInvestments: LongTermRiskyAssets
Property investment analysis requires the full application of all capital budgeting techniques:
Forecasting: quantitative (i.e statistical) from Ch 3
qualitatative ( i.e judgmental) from Ch 4. Risk Analysis: RADR and CE from Ch7.
Risk Analysis: Sensitivity and
Break-even Analysis from Ch 8.
PropertyInvestments: LongTermRiskyAssets
More Risk Analysis Techniques:
Simulation from Ch 9. Scenario Analysis from Ch 10.
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CashFlowForecasting ForAn IncomeProducingProperty
Forecasting Rent:
(a) rent under the lease- this is detailed in the lease covenants
(b) market rent – rent may be adjusted under the lease covenants, and on lease expiry. Market rent forecasts combine both qualitative and quantitative techniques.
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CashFlowForecasting ForAn IncomeProducingProperty
Forecasting Operating Expenses :
sometimes current expenses are grown forward using a common inflation index, such as the Consumer Price Index.
Forecasting Vacancy Rates:
a common method is to forecast these rates as an annual average percentage of the lease rental. 5
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