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- COMBINED MARKET
OVERVIEW
Presented by
Mr. Naim Khan-Turk – Associate Director
CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam)
Quarter 4 2007
- Agenda
HCMC: HA NOI:
OFFICE MARKET OFFICE MARKET
CONDOMINIUMS SERVICED APARTMENT
SERVICED MARKET
APARTMENT MARKET HOTEL MARKET
RETAIL MARKET RETAIL MARKET
HOTEL MARKET RESIDENTIAL MARKET
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK
CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
- WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE
2003?
• Limited capital markets
• An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC
• Conspicuous consumption
• Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum
• Consistently rising GDP and FDI
• China + 1, APEC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on
the radar screen, coupled with the ML reports and the Euro Money
Conference in March 2006/2007
CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
- MAP OF VIETNAM
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
- VIETNAM TODAY
• No Starbucks and No MacDonalds
• World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas
exports
• No shortage of land, just good sites
• “If you build it, they will come” no longer exists
• Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos
on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions
• Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and
tunnels
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
- DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Source: Saigon Times
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
- PROPOSED MRT LINES HCMC
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
- VIETNAM AT A GLANCE
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
- WTO
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
- HO CHI MINH CITY
Source:CBRE
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
- AVERAGE REGIONAL RENTAL AND OCCUPANCY COST
PRIME OFFICE RENTS AND OCCUPANCY COST IN KEY ASIAN CITIES
(As of Q4.2007)
Avarage market rents Total occupancy cost
(US$/sqm/month) (US$/sqm/month)
(unit: US$)
141
126
90.5
77 75 76 76
63
48 48 50 45 56
39 41 45
37 36
29 28.5
24.5 23 22 23 24 21.5 26 21.5 21.5
13 14 16.516.5
8.5
Hong Kong
Bankok
Beijing
Tokyo
Jakarta
Manila
Lumpur
Guangzhou
Shanghai
Taipei
Seoul
N ew Delhi
Sydney
HCMC
Bangalore
Melbourne
Singapore
Kuala
(Source: CBRE)
Note: According to CBRE research all over the world during 2007,
HCMC is ranked as
45th in the top 50 cities that offer the highest office asking rents all over the world
13th in the top 50 cities that have the highest growth rate on office rental rates
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
- HCMC OFFICE MARKET - HCMC
HCMC Prime Office Stock
sqm
(at 2007 ends)
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
Q1/04
Q2/04
Q3/04
Q4/04
Q1/05
Q2/05
Q3/05
Q4/05
Q1/06
Q2/06
Q3/06
Q4/06
Q1/07
Q2/07
Q3/07
Q4/07
Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter
Total 165,381 sm office space come on line during 2007
No grade A
62,965 sm Grade B
102,416 sm Grade C
CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
- Index (Q1 1998 = 100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q1 98
Source:CBRE
Q2 98
Q3 98
CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
Q4 98
Q1 99
Q2 99
Q3 99
Q4 99
Q1 00
Q2 00
Q3 00
Q4 00
Q1 01
Q2 01
Q3 01
Q4 01
Q1 02
Q2 02
US-VN Bilateral
Q3 02
Trade Agreement
Q4 02
Q1 03
Q2 03
Q3 03
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Prime Office Rental Index
Q1 05
Q2 05
HCMC - OFFICE MARKET
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
• Growing demand
Q2 06
Q3 06
• Delays in new supply
Q4 06
Q1.07
Q2.07
WTO
Q3.07
And the upward trend will continue due to:
Q4.07
- HCMC - OFFICE MARKET
Take up and vacancy r ate of
H C MC of fice buildings Q4.2007
%
80,000 8.0%
60,000 6.0%
40,000 4.0%
20,000 2.0%
- 0.0%
Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
- CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
- HCMC - OFFICE MARKET
NEW MAJOR OFFICE BUILDINGS
COMPLETED DURING 2007
E-Town 2 Saigon Finance Petro VN, Citilight,
Tan Binh Dist Centre, Dist. 1 Dist. 1
Dist. 1
(27,000 sm) (10,692 sm) (10,780 sm)
(14,493 sm)
Total Supply in 2007
165,381 sm
CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
- HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates
Rent trends of Grade A
Q1 - 2006 $23.00
Q1/06 - Q1/07
uni t: US $
32 Q1 - 2007 $32.00
23 grow th rate 39%
Increase of 39%
Q 1/ 06 Q 1/ 07 Occupancy 100%
* Note : r e nts ar e on ne t ar e a e xcl u di ng S .C and VAT
Rents trends of Grade A
Q1/07 - Q1/08
63
unit: US$
Q1 – 2008 $63.00
growth rate 97%
32 Increase of 97% in
comparison to Q1.07
Occupancy 100%
Q1/07 Q1/08
Note : re nts are on ne t are a e xclu ding S .C and VAT
CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
- HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates
Rent trends of Grade B
Q1/06 - Q1/07
Q1 - 2006 $22.00
u n it:U S$
gro wth rate 26% 26. 5
Q1 - 2007 $26.50
21
Increase of 26%
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
Occupancy 99%
* Note: rents are on net area excluding S.C and VAT
Rent trends of Grade B
Q1/07 - Q1/08
uni t : US $
Q1 - 2008 $40
gro wth rate 51%
40
Increase of 51% in
26. 5
comparison to Q1.07
Occupancy 100%
Q1/2007 Q1/2008
* Note: rents are on net area excluding S.C and VAT
CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
- HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates
Rent trends of Grade C
Q1/06 - Q1/07
Q1 - 2006 $20.50
uni t : U S $
Q1 - 2007 $24.00
gr ow t h r at e 17%
24
20.5
Increase of 43%
Occupancy 97%
Q 1/ 2006 Q 1/ 2007
* N ote: rents excluding S.C and VAT
Rent trends of Grade C
Q1/07 - Q3/07
Q1 - 2008 $32.00
uni t: US $ grow t h r at e 33% 32
24 Increase of 33% in
comparison to Q1.07
Occupancy 98%
Q 1/ 2007 Q 1/ 2008
* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT
CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
- HCMC OFFICE MARKET
Market Outlook in 2008:
Vacancy in grade A & B office space still
remains limited. Supply of
Expected new grade Expected
Some new supply of Grade B office
year of A, B & C supply
space expected to come on line during
2007. completion buildings (sqm)
Factors driving demand: Strong
economic growth, FDI growth, WTO 2008 40 261,949
access, new multi-national companies,
expansion of existing multi-national
companies, Vietnam companies 2009 24 365,969
upgrading, safety & quality Issues
Grade A & B office rental rates reflects
2010 10 288,156
upward momentum and growing demand
vis-à-vis tight supply
Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%) TOTAL 74 916,074
and B (
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