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Chapter 13:
FINANCIAL MODELING CASE STUDY IN FORESTRY PROJECT EVALUATION.
Description of a generic computer model for the evaluation of various forestry investments.
1
Forestry Investment Computer Models
The roles of modelling in forestry investment.
To evaluate the NPV and LEV of particular plantations.
To allow sensitivity and risk analyses of forecast variables.
To facilitate analysis of various cropping scenarios:
eg; harvest lives, planting regimes,
species mixtures. 2
Forestry Models
Modelling is useful because:
1. There are many data types.
2. The computational interrelationships between data types are complex: eg rainfall/soil type/location/species.
3. Plantation life spans are very long.
4. Many scenarios are possible.
3
Forestry Models: Specific Vs Generic
A Specific model can evaluate individual forestry projects.
A Generic model can evaluate a variety of separate investment projects for a variety of users.
4
Forestry Models:
Specific Vs Generic Choice
Specific –
Shorter development time easier to develop
less data required
limited to one user/one application
a once off application means that there are no economies of scale.
5
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