A closer look at analyst expectations: Stickiness and confirmation bias
A closer look at analyst expectations: Stickiness and confirmation bias
This paper provides a closer look at the expectation formation process of individual analyst. Using a detailed analyst earnings forecasts dataset, we document the existence of stickiness and confirmatory bias in individual analyst expectations. When the latest signal about firm fundamentals is inconsistent with prior belief, analysts are subject to confirmation bias, and tend to be stickier to their previous earnings forecasts. Confirmation bias is more serve in the case of positive priors. Besi