Tài liệu miễn phí Tài Chính - Ngân Hàng
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To avoid credit rationing, banks use other methods to screen potential
borrowers.
24
For example, banks can use extensive and comprehensive covenants on
loans to mitigate agency costs. As new information arrives, covenants can be
renegotiated. Covenants may also require collateral or personal guarantees from firms
about their future activities and business practises in order to maximise the probability
of repayment. The banks lending history produces valuable information that evolves
over time. Banks therefore are depositories of information, which in itself becomes a
valuable asset that allows banks to ascertain good borrowers from bad,...
8/30/2018 2:10:36 AM +00:00
The main contributions of the paper are based on the large dataset on loan
operations for which data on ex post risk are available. The study uses information on the
more than three million loans entered into by Spanish credit institutions over a complete
business cycle collected by the Bank of Spain’s Credit Register [Central de Información de
Riesgos, CIR). With very few exceptions [such as Berger and Udell (1990)], much of the
existing empirical literature on credit risk relies on data from surveys of a limited number of
borrowers or lenders, usually referring to only one...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
The Credit Register information used here is based exclusively at the transaction or
loan level, not at the level of borrowers. A given borrower may enter into several loans with the
same bank or with different banks. As some characteristics of the loans cannot readily be
aggregated for a given borrower (collateral, maturity, type of instrument), in order to
distinguish their impact it is essential to perform the analysis at the level of each loan. If all of a
borrower’s loans with various different banks are grouped together it also becomes
impossible to distinguish differences in behaviour between...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
What role is played by different types of institution in the credit risk incurred by
borrowers? Carey et al. (1998) find that specialist finance firms are more willing than banks to
lend to riskier borrowers. There is considerable literature on the incentives of savings banks to
adopt credit policies that differ from those commercial banks in terms of levels of risk. In
general, what has been found is that institutions controlled by shareholders have greater
incentives to take on more risk than those controlled by managers, due to the fact that the
latter have invested specific human capital or...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
Finally, another issue, which has aroused a considerable amount of interest in the
literature, is the role of the bank-customer relationship in credit risk. Non-financial companies
can benefit from close relationships with banks through easier access to credit, in terms of
both the amount of credit they can obtain and how much it costs them, the protection they
have during recession and even an implicit insurance of the cost of finance [Petersen and
Rajan (1994)]. The close bank-customer relationship may produce informational rents for the
bank [Sharpe (1990) and Rajan (1992)] enabling it to exercise a certain degree of market...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
It is possible that there are interactions between several characteristics of loans in
determining the PD. To know that the loan is backed by collateral provides information about
the quality of the borrower at the time of the decision, depending upon the information
asymmetry between the borrower and the lender [Boot et al. (1991)], and/or it provides
information about the possible trade-off between the use of collateral and time invested in
evaluating the risk of the operation for the lender [Manove and Padilla (1999 and 2001)]. It can
be expected that lenders will offer a choice between...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
As stated above, the database used for this study is the Credit Register of the Bank of
Spain (CIR). This database records monthly information on all loans granted by credit
institutions (banks, savings banks, cooperatives and credit finance establishments) in Spain
for a value of over 6,000 euros. The CIR’s data distinguishes between companies and
individuals. Among the latter it is possible to identify those undertaking business activities
(individual businesspersons). There is a clear separation between the characteristics of loans
to companies (mainly in terms of the size of the loan, maturity, collateral, and default rates)...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
As can be seen in Table 1, the number of observations available is large and has grown
continuously throughout the period studied. Overall, there are data on over 3 million loans for
the five dates analysed. This number of observations ensures the efficiency of the
econometric estimates presented in the following section.
The majority of companies’ loans are not secured by collateral, or in other words,
have only a personal guarantee. Thus, on average, almost 85% of loans have no collateral.
Loans that do have collateral have doubled their relative weight over the time horizon
analysed. Collateral in the form...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
The first column of Table 2 (Model 1) shows the results of the maximum likelihood estimate of
the logistic model applied to the pool of data from over the five year period studied. The
model includes a constant forcing a variable to be left out of each block of characteristics to
avoid perfect multicollinearity from occurring. The constant determines the PD of the excluded
loans11. The characteristics of the excluded loan are: financial credit, in euros, long term (over
five years), without collateral, 1993, construction sector and lent by a bank in a certain region.
The interpretation of the...
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As regards collateral, the pledging of collateral increases the PD when compared
with unsecured lending. Within secured loans, the PD of those that are 100% secured is
lower than that of those secured to a value of over 50% but not to a full 100%, although the
latter account for only a small percentage of the sample. Finally, loans guaranteed by a credit
institution or the public sector have a lower likelihood of default, less even than in the case of
unsecured loans. Note that this latter class of loan is subject to a double evaluation, i.e. by the
bank...
8/30/2018 2:10:34 AM +00:00
NGUY N CHÁNH TÚ
Khoa Toán, Đ i H c Sư Ph m Hu
Giáo trình đi n t
LÍ THUY T M R NG TRƯ NG VÀ GALOIS
Hu 12-2006
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8/30/2018 2:01:46 AM +00:00
Gọi là những “kẻ phá bĩnh” vì kết quả của họ khiến những lý giải về tăng trưởng tín dụng vừa qua có vẻ chưa ổn, hoặc chưa đầy đủ. Kết quả của họ còn đặt ra khía cạnh trách nhiệm của các tổ chức tín dụng một cách rõ ràng hơn. Kết quả quá thấp đặt ra dấu hỏi lớn đối với năng lực dự báo và hoạch định chính sách vĩ mô, khi đầu năm chỉ tiêu năm nay đưa ra là 15 - 17%. Câu hỏi khác là vai trò của chính sách tiền tệ, cụ thể...
8/30/2018 1:53:11 AM +00:00
Bên cạnh đó, hoạt động tái cơ cấu tài chính còn tập trung tăng cường hạ tầng tài chính, đổi mới cơ chế ổn định tài chính và giám sát tài chính theo thông lệ và chuẩn mực quốc tế nhằm đảm bảo cho tăng trưởng và ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô. Tuy nhiên, những hệ quả của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính thế giới và suy thoái kinh tế toàn cầu, những diễn biến phức tạp hiện nay trên thị trường tài chính thế giới đang đặt hệ thống tài chính khu vực Đông Á trước không ít...
8/30/2018 1:53:06 AM +00:00
We also frequently found that even the
best corrective lenses did not improve vi-
sual acuity of the impaired eye to that of
the fellow eye. Through the analysis of
these initial cases, an apparently predomi-
nant common characteristic of these pa-
tients was a work station with papers
angled to the right or to the left of themon-
itor and keyboard. Other reports revealed
the screen was in the frontal position, but
was twisted. Still others reported that their
habitual work pattern was with their
eyes/head twisted.
Evans
23
indicated that proper func-
tioning of binocular vision without symp-
toms depends on: i) the anatomy of ocular
structures, ii) the motor system, and iii)
the sensory system through...
8/30/2018 1:48:58 AM +00:00
The subjects’ reported symptoms of
visual discomfort are summarized in Ta-
ble 1. Nine subjects reported monocular
ocular irritating symptoms. Asthenopia
(N=6) was associated with eye strain but
also occurred alone. Others reported
blurry vision (N=19), either at distance or
near, or both, in one eye. Others noted
spatial perception problems (N=8), in-
cluding decreased stereopsis and print
floating/moving on the page. Four others
reported difficulty adjusting to a new cor-
rective lens prescription.
Refraction
Ninety one percent of the subjects
wore spectacles and 75% of them were
presbyopic. Overall, there were no high
levels of anisometropia. Seventy-seven
percent (27 of 35) of the subjects exhibited
a dioptric difference between the two eyes
of 0.75 D. Four
subjects had a...
8/30/2018 1:48:58 AM +00:00
We noted factors such as a habitual
face tilt or the presentation of anatomical
dissociation (prominent nasal septum iso-
lated or combined with small pupillary
distance/endophthalmus) when present.
There were, however, no clear trends or
patterns providing support that anatomi-
cal factors significantly contributed to the
problem of working with a tilted gaze.
Further investigation of the relation-
ship between monocular signs and symp-
toms, binocular function and ergonomics
within the workplace is clearly needed.
Others have proposed different variables
to be considered. These include anoma-
lies in the ocular sensory system as a pos-
sible cause.
23
A loss of clarity of the
optical image in one eye could then impact
the development of suppression and/or
binocular instability.
37
It is likely...
8/30/2018 1:48:58 AM +00:00
Prices of major meat and ce real food com -
modi ties have trended down ward over the past
20 years, mak ing food more af ford able to con sum-
ers of all in comes (Fig ure 3). Real ce real prices fell
38–46 per cent (de pend ing on the grain in ques-
tion) be tween the early 1980s and early 1990s,
while de flated liq uid milk prices fell 37 per cent
and real meat prices fell 23–35 per cent. Al though
ce real prices fell faster than meat and milk prices,
many con sum ers have begun to di ver sify their
diets into meat...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
The im por tance of even small in creases in per cap -
ita con sump tion is com pounded by rap idly in creas-
ing popu la tions in many de vel op ing re gions. On
average, popu la tion in de vel op ing coun tries grew
by 2.1 per cent per year be tween 1970 and 1995
(Table 4). The popu la tion in Sub- Saharan Af rica
grew the most—al most 3 per cent per year dur ing
the pe riod. Rapid popu la tion growth cou pled with
in creased per cap ita con sump tion re sulted in dra ...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
Schroe der, Bar kley, and Schroe der did not re-
port price elas tici ties or the ef fects of other struc-
tural changes on per cap ita con sump tion. Del gado
and Cour bois (1998) es ti mated ex pen di ture, price,
and ur bani za tion elas tici ties based on data from
64 de vel op ing coun tries for 1970–95. They used a
sys tem of equa tions that sorted out rela tive price
effects among ani mal prod ucts and that con trolled
for many cul tural, geo graphic, physi cal, and eco -
nomic dif fer ences be tween...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
The own- price elas tici ties in Table 8 meas ure
the change in con sump tion of vari ous ani mal prod-
ucts in re sponse to rela tive price changes within the
group of ani mal prod ucts. As ex pected, price rises
for a given com mod ity are as so ci ated with de-
creased con sump tion of that com mod ity, other
things being equal. The es ti mated price re spon sive-
ness for both beef and poul try is rather mod est. The
price re spon sive ness of pork and mut ton is higher,
but still ine las...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
Na tional in come, popu la tion, and ur ban growth
rates are also as sumed for each coun try group, along
with an tici pated changes in these rates over time. The
model uses the re vised United Na tions medium-
variant pro jec tions for 1996 for demo graphic as sump-
tions. Na tional in come pro jec tions are es ti mated based
on a re view of pro jec tions drawn from sources such as
the World Bank. The model is solved on an an nual
basis by link ing each coun try model to the rest of...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
In the first, “op ti mis tic” sce nario, feed con ver-
sion ra tios im prove pro gres sively. About 1 per cent
more meat per year is pro duced per kilo gram of
feed in de vel op ing coun tries, with a com pounded
ef fect over time. This mir rors the rapid tech no logi-
cal prog ress ob served in the de vel oped coun tries
from the early 1980s to the early 1990s. Under the
op ti mis tic sce nario, feed con ver sion ef fi ciency in
de vel oped coun tries im proves by only 0.5...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
Pro gres sively lower feed ef fi ciency raises the
world price of ce real feed to the point where sub sti-
tutes be come cost- effective. Pro duc tion shifts from
re gions and com modi ties that can not un der take these
sub sti tu tions at low enough cost to those that can.
Coun tries such as Ar gen tina, with large pro duc tion
ca pac ity on ranges, are fa vored in the “pes si mis tic”
sce nario be cause they can com pete more eas ily, with
more ex pen sive lot- fed beef, for ex am ple. The...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
The extent of foreign ownership has
shown a significant rise since the
publication of our previous findings in
2006 when overseas ownership of the
City’s office stock was estimated at 45%.
The further increase to 52% represents
the culmination of a consistently rising
trend which has seen foreign ownership
track 60% for the past eight years.
In 1980 overseas ownership of the City’s
property assets stood at a mere 8%
(including owner-occupiers). Foreign
ownership passed 25% in the mid 1990s
and, fuelled by the growth of global real
asset investment and the expansion of
private real estate fund vehicles, exceeded...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
The Durban Platform signifies an important milestone
in the climate change negotiations and reflects the attitude
towards the new climate regime. It reinforces some key
building blocks for a sustained and comprehensive attempt
to tackle the climate crisis. Meanwhile, the Kyoto Protocol
will continue into a second commitment period and thus
retains the important political value of rules-based
emissions reductions from a group of industrialized
countries, while preserving important mechanisms such as
emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI).
This paper will evaluate the substantive results of the
Durban conference, draw implications for developing
countries and...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
These individual priors play a bigger role when investors are unfamiliar
with the stock market or lack data to assess it. But they are unlikely to fade
away even with experience and data. Furthermore, when mistrust is deeply
rooted, people may be doubtful about any information they obtain and disre-
gard it in revising their priors. For example, data from a 2002 Gallup poll show
that roughly 80% of respondents from some Muslim countries (Pakistan, Iran,
Indonesia, Turkey, Lebanon, Morocco, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia) do
not believe that Arabs committed the September 11 attacks (Gentzkow and
Shapiro (2004)).
To assess the explanatory power of a trust-based explanation, we...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
The last three years have put many of us, not least the property industry, through a most
testing period. The City’s office stock has experienced its fair share of pain as capital
values plummeted by 50% between 2007 and 2009 and, in spite of a subsequent recovery,
remain some 37% below their pre-crisis values. Nonetheless, throughout the 2008 global
economic downturn and the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis, the Square Mile’s
ability to attract occupiers and investors has proved to be a litmus test of London’s
pre-eminence as a global financial centre....
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
To assess the explanatory power of a trust-based explanation, we start by
modeling the impact of trust on portfolio decisions. Not only does the model
provide testable implications, but it also gives us a sense of the economic im-
portance of this phenomenon. In the absence of any cost of participation, a low
level of trust can explain why a large fraction of individuals do not invest in
the stock market. In addition, the model shows that lack of trust amplifies the
effect of costly participation. For example, if an investor thinks that there is
a 2% probability that he will be cheated, the threshold level of...
8/30/2018 1:48:54 AM +00:00
In this paper, we follow Lanne, Lutkepohl, and Maciejowska (2010), and
obtain over-identifying information from Markov switching variance models
to test whether the assumed long run structural restrictions are appropri-
ate or not. Markov switching variance VAR models provide over-identifying
information from decomposition of covariance matrices across states to test
the assumed structural restrictions, which is essential for the correct identi-
cation of fundamental and nonfundamental shocks.
8/30/2018 1:48:53 AM +00:00
Our results indicate that the assumed structural identication scheme is
compatible with the data. Based on the conrmed identication of funda-
mental and nonfundamental shocks, the historical stock prices are decom-
posed into fundamental components and nonfundamental components. In
contrast to Binswanger (2004), the decomposition shows that the linkage be-
tween Japanese stock prices and real activity shocks became strengthened
since the bubble collapsed in the beginning of 1990s. After the outburst of
the recent nancial crisis, the stock price collapsed again, while the devia-
tion from the fundamental value remained small. In line with Chung and
Lee (1998), our results suggest that the deviation of Japanese stock prices
from...
8/30/2018 1:48:53 AM +00:00