Shaping the Next One Hundred Years

Shaping the Next One HundredYears New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis Robert J. Lempert Steven W. Popper Steven C. Bankes Prepared for This research in the public interest was supported by a generous grant from Frederick S. Pardee to develop new methods for conducting longer term global policy and improving the future human condition. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lempert, Robert J. Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes. p. cm. “MR-1626.” Includes bibliographic references. ISBN 0-8330-3275-5 (pbk.) 1. System analysis. 2. Decision making. 3. Information technology. I. Popper, Steven W., 1953– II. Bankes, Steven C. III.Title. T57.6 .L46 2003 320`.6`0113—dc21 2003012438 Cover design by Barbara Angell Caslon RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org PREFACE Is there any practical value in considering the long term—25, 50, or 100 years into the future—when debating policy choices today? If so, how is it possible to use these considerations to actually inform the actions we will take in the near term? This study is an initial effort by the RAND Pardee Center to frame a role for long-term policy analy-sis. It considers the history of attempts to treat the future in an ana-lytical manner and then offers a new methodology, based on recent advances in computer science, that shows promise for making such inquiries both practicable and useful. It suggests a new approach for systematic consideration of a multiplicity of plausible futures in a way that will enhance our ability to make good decisions today in the face of deep uncertainty. This research was undertaken through a generous gift from Frederick S. Pardee to develop improved means of systematically dealing with the uncertainties of a longer-range future. This report should be of interest to decisionmakers concerned with the long-term effects of their actions, those who conduct long-term planning, and anyone who deals more generally with decisionmaking under deep uncer-tainty. The report should also interest those concerned with the lat-est advances in computer technology in support of human reasoning and understanding. ABOUT THE RAND PARDEE CENTER The RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition was established in 2001 through a gift from Frederick S. Pardee. The Pardee Center seeks to enhance iii iv Shaping the Next One Hundred Years the overall future quality and condition of human life by improving longer-range global policy and long-term policy analysis. In carrying out this mission, the center concentrates on five broad areas: • Developing new methodologies, or refining existing ones, to improve thinking about the long-range effects of policy options. • Developing improved measures of human progress on a global scale. • Identifying policy issues with important implications for the long-term future—i.e., 35 to 200 years ahead. • Using longer-range policy analysis and measures of global progress to improve near-term decisions that have long-term impact. • Collaborating with like-minded institutions and colleagues, including international organizations, academic research cen-ters, futures societies, and individuals around the globe. Inquiries regarding the RAND Pardee Center may be directed to James A. Dewar Director RAND Pardee Center 1700 Main Street Santa Monica, CA 90401 Phone: (310) 393-0411 extension 7554 E-mail: dewar@rand.org Web site: http://www.rand.org/pardee/ CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... vii Tables.......................................... ix Summary ....................................... xi Acknowledgments................................. xix Abbreviations .................................... xxi Chapter One THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS .. 1 Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible ............. 3 The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development...... 7 Surprise: The Constant Element ................... 8 Organization of This Report....................... 8 Chapter Two A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE ...... 11 Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future................................... 12 Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight ...... 16 Simulation Modeling ........................... 20 Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty............................... 25 Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures ............. 29 Assessing the State of the Art ...................... 36 Chapter Three ROBUST DECISIONMAKING ..................... 39 v ... - tailieumienphi.vn