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World Economic and Financial Surveys Regional Economic Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 12 I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D ©2012 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication Data Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa. — Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2003– v. ; cm. — (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440) Twice a year. Began in 2003. Some issues have thematic titles. 1. Economic forecasting — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals. 2. Africa, Sub-Saharan — Economic conditions — 1960– — Periodicals. 3. Economic development — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals. I. Title: Sub-Saharan Africa. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys. HC800.A1 R445 ISBN-13: 978-1-47551-079-9 Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (U.S.A.) Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail : publications@imf.org www.imf.org www.elibrary.imf.org Contents Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................v Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................vi In Brief.........................................................................................................................................vii 1. Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World.......................................................................1 Introduction and Summary.................................................................................................................1 Resilience in the Face of an Uncertain Environment............................................................................2 Risk Scenario Analysis.......................................................................................................................13 Is There Still Room for Policy Action if Needed ?..............................................................................15 Policy Recommendations ..................................................................................................................19 Concluding Remarks.........................................................................................................................23 2. Nigeria and South Africa: Spillovers to the Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa..........................25 Introduction and Summary...............................................................................................................25 South Africa’s Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa.....................................................................................28 Nigeria’s Impact on its Neighbors......................................................................................................38 Concluding Remarks.........................................................................................................................46 3. Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa ...........................................................51 Introduction and Summary...............................................................................................................51 Stylized Facts.....................................................................................................................................53 Sectoral Perspectives..........................................................................................................................60 Some Impediments to Structural Transformation..............................................................................64 Conclusions and Future Prospects.....................................................................................................65 Statistical Appendix....................................................................................................................73 References .................................................................................................................................101 Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–12 .......................................................105 Boxes 1.1. South Sudan: Newest IMF Member..................................................................................................3 1.2. Debt Dynamics in the Baseline over the Medium-Term....................................................................6 1.3. Global Food Prices and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa..........................................................11 1.4. Energy Subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costly, Untargeted, and Inefficient...................................20 2.1. The Role of Nigeria and South Africa in the Network of Sub-Saharan African Merchandise Trade..27 2.2. Linkages among Sub-Saharan Africa Stock Exchanges.....................................................................34 2.3. Spillovers within the Southern Africa Customs Union.....................................................................35 2.4. Energy Linkages between Nigeria and Surrounding Countries........................................................40 2.5. Informal Trade between Benin and Nigeria.....................................................................................42 3.1. Structural Transformation in Asia ...................................................................................................59 3.2. Formal and Informal Employment..................................................................................................66 Tables 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth.............................................................................................2 1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators......................................................................4 1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundness Indicators in 2011, Selected Countries..............................8 1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Indicators for Fiscal Policy Room ....................................................................17 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Nonfinancial South African Firms Operating in the Region.....................30 iii regional economic outlook: sub-saharan africa 2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Key South Africa-based Financial Groups Operating in the Region.................31 2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Linkages with South Africa, 2010.............................................................37 2.4. Main Recipients of Remittances from Nigeria.................................................................................43 2.5. Nigeria and Neighboring Countries’ GDP .......................................................................44 2.6. Nigeria and Neighboring Countries’ CPI .........................................................................45 3.1. Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Productivity Growth and Change in Agricultural Output Shares, 1995–2010 ....................................................................................55 3.2. Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Output Shares of Ariculture, Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, and the Tertiary Sector, 1995–2010............................................56 3.3. Education Characteristics 2010.......................................................................................................64 3.4. Structural Impediments...................................................................................................................65 Figures 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Food and Nonfood Inflation............................................................................4 1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal Credit to the Private Sector ...............................................................4 1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–13......................................................................5 1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Debt Ratios, 2000–12.................................................................5 1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports and the Current Account by Regional Groups ....................................7 1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundness Indicators ........................................................................9 1.7. Selected Regions: Real GDP Growth, 2008–13..............................................................................10 1.8. Selected Regions, Inflation, 2008–13..............................................................................................10 1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects, 2012–13 ...........................................................................13 1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Downside Scenario......................................................................................... 14 1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in CPI Inflation from 12-months Earlier, End-2012 vs. End-2011.... 17 1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Reserve Coverage and Current Account Balance............................................ 18 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Intra-Regional Exports, 1981–2010................................................................26 2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports to South Africa from Neighboring Countries....................................28 2.3. South Africa: Outward Direct Investment......................................................................................29 2.4. BLNS: Customs Revenue Payments................................................................................................33 2.5. Bilateral Correlations of Output in Sub-Saharan Africa..................................................................38 2.6. Western Africa: Exports to Nigeria .................................................................................................39 2.7. Relevance of Imports from Nigeria..................................................................................................39 2.8. Number of Subsidiaries of Nigerian-based Banks............................................................................41 2.9. Share of Migrants to Nigeria to Total Population ...........................................................................43 3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Agriculture’s Shares in GDP and Total Employment and Real GDP per capita, 2010.........................................................................................................52 3.2. Average Labor Productivity.............................................................................................................52 3.3. Growth Rate of Real GDP per Person in the Labor Force, 1995–2010...........................................54 3.4. Average Years of Total Schooling and Highest Level of Education Attained ...................................57 3.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Sectoral Output and Employment, 1995–2010..............................................58 3.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Labor Productivity and Change in Employment Shares, 1995–2010 .............60 3.7. Asia: Labor Productivity and Change in Employment Shares, 1995–2010......................................60 3.8. Average Labor Productivity in the Agriculture Sector, 1985–2010.................................................. 61 3.9. Manufacturing Productivity Growth vs. Real GDP Per Capita.......................................................62 3.10. Change in Manufacturing and Mining Output and Export Shares, 1995–2010 ............................62 3.11. Change in Service Output and Export Shares, 1995–2010 .............................................................64 3.12. Tanzania: Composition of Exports of Goods and Services .............................................................68 3.13. Namibia: Composition of Manufactured Exports...........................................................................69 3.14. Mauritius: Exports and FDI Inflows...............................................................................................70 3.15. Contribution to Real GDP Growth by Sector, 2005–11.................................................................71 3.16. Kenya: ICT Services Exports............................................................................................................71 iv ... - tailieumienphi.vn
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