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Market Outlook and Investment Strategy for 2013
Dr. Marvin Appel Signalert Asset Management
150 Great Neck Road Great Neck, New York 11021
516‐829‐6444, mappel@signalert.com www.Signalert.com
January 9, 2013
Market and investment climate
• The Fed is printing money aggressively.
• The economy is growing slowly.
• Inflation will eventually be a problem, but likely not this year.
Everyone is printing money
England
U.S. Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Japan
Federal Tax Receipts and Spending
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
Taxes and Government Spending
Government Spending as a % of GDP (65.75-Year Average = 19.7% of GDP)
9/30/2012 = 23.8% ( )
Quarterly Data 3/31/1947 - 9/30/2012
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9
Source: All data from Department of Commerce
Deficit as a % of GDP
(65.75-Year Average = -1.7% of GDP)
Taxes as a % of GDP (65.75-Year Average = 18.0% of GDP)
9/30/2012 = 17.0% ( )
Surplus as a % of GDP
15 2009 14
13
9/30/2012 = -6.8% 5 4 3 2 1 0
-1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9
(E300) 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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Nominal and real rates are at or near 60‐year lows.
20%
15%
10%
Interestrates (10‐year Treasurynotes)
Realinterest rates (yield minus inflation)
5%
0%
‐5%
...
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