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Market Outlook and Investment Strategy for 2013 Dr. Marvin Appel Signalert Asset Management 150 Great Neck Road Great Neck, New York 11021 516‐829‐6444, mappel@signalert.com www.Signalert.com January 9, 2013 Market and investment climate • The Fed is printing money aggressively. • The economy is growing slowly. • Inflation will eventually be a problem, but likely not this year. Everyone is printing money England U.S. Federal Reserve European Central Bank Japan Federal Tax Receipts and Spending 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 Taxes and Government Spending Government Spending as a % of GDP (65.75-Year Average = 19.7% of GDP) 9/30/2012 = 23.8% ( ) Quarterly Data 3/31/1947 - 9/30/2012 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 Source: All data from Department of Commerce Deficit as a % of GDP (65.75-Year Average = -1.7% of GDP) Taxes as a % of GDP (65.75-Year Average = 18.0% of GDP) 9/30/2012 = 17.0% ( ) Surplus as a % of GDP 15 2009 14 13 9/30/2012 = -6.8% 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 (E300) 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010  Copyright 2012 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . Nominal and real rates are at or near 60‐year lows. 20% 15% 10% Interestrates (10‐year Treasurynotes) Realinterest rates (yield minus inflation) 5% 0% ‐5% ... - tailieumienphi.vn
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