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Lecture 7: Behavioral Finance The Role of Psychology Questionnaire, Part I Give 90% Confidence Interval 1. How much does the Statue of Liberty weigh, in tons? (entire steel­reinforced copper figure) 2. What is the 2000 population of Turkey? 3. How many square miles in Sahara Desert? 4. Endowment of Yale University as reported in 1998­9 Support of Education Survey? 5. How much, in dollars, does one receive if one wins the Pulitzer Prize (2001)? Questionnaire, Part II Give 90% Confidence Interval 6. US Population in first census (1790) 7. US Traffic fatalities New Years Day 1/1/98 8. Connecticut land area, square miles 9. Height of Mount Everest 10. 100­meter dash winner, time in seconds, 1896 Olympics Overconfidence From my October, 1987 Investor Survey: “Did you think at any point on October 19, 1987 that you had a pretty good idea when the market would rebound?” Institutional: 29% yes, Individual 28% yes Among buyers: 47%, 48% “If yes, what made you think you knew when a rebound would occur? Answers: “intuition,” “gut feeling,” “common sense” Prospect Theory • Kahneman and Tversky, Econometrica 1979 • Two elements, value function and weighting function • Elements replace utility function and probabilities in expected utility theory ... - tailieumienphi.vn
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