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Lecture 7: Behavioral Finance
The Role of Psychology
Questionnaire, Part I Give 90% Confidence Interval
1. How much does the Statue of Liberty weigh, in tons? (entire steelreinforced copper figure)
2. What is the 2000 population of Turkey? 3. How many square miles in Sahara Desert?
4. Endowment of Yale University as reported in 19989 Support of Education Survey?
5. How much, in dollars, does one receive if one wins the Pulitzer Prize (2001)?
Questionnaire, Part II Give 90% Confidence Interval
6. US Population in first census (1790)
7. US Traffic fatalities New Years Day 1/1/98 8. Connecticut land area, square miles
9. Height of Mount Everest
10. 100meter dash winner, time in seconds, 1896 Olympics
Overconfidence
From my October, 1987 Investor Survey:
“Did you think at any point on October 19, 1987 that you had a pretty good idea when the market would rebound?”
Institutional: 29% yes, Individual 28% yes Among buyers: 47%, 48%
“If yes, what made you think you knew when a rebound would occur?
Answers: “intuition,” “gut feeling,” “common sense”
Prospect Theory
• Kahneman and Tversky, Econometrica 1979
• Two elements, value function and weighting function
• Elements replace utility function and probabilities in expected utility theory
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