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-
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N~IHON
- NGHI~N C(JU & PHAT TRIEN
mu6n tIm ra cac ly do A, B, c de" dIn kt C1,1C (khung D
hoang). Tren cd so nghien c((u dien tin cua n~n kinh t cac
nuoc truoc va trong khung hoang, chung toi da chQnmQt
cach tip c~n khac de" ly giai cuQc khung hoang nay. Chung
toi khong tIm ly do cua khung hoang theo kie"u logic ..nu A
thI B", ma coi khung hoang la ke't qua cua mQt qua trInh tich
lt1y cac ti~n d~ c6 the" gay khung hoang ti:t m((c thilp toi cao,
la mQt qua trInh chuye"n bin d6i lu,ng thanh chilt. T((c la
qua trInh khung hoang c6 the" du'c khoi dQng ti:t rilt lau bOi
cac thay d6i c6 quy mo nho hang nam, c6 ve rilt khong nguy
hie"m, song du,c tich lt1y dcin dcin va tin toi bung n6 do sI!
chin mu6i ben trong n~n kinh t ho~c tn!oc mQt s6 tac dQng
ben ngoai.
Theo huong d6, chung toi da xay dl!ng mo hInh ..cac
nguy cd khung hoang va cd ch phat sinh khung h.oang kinh
t -tai chinh" qua d6 chi r6 b6n yu t6 ti~n d~ cua nguy cd
khung hoang kinh t -tai chinh truoc khi xay ra kht'lng hoang
va b6n vong xoay khung hoang khi n6 ra khung hoang kinh
t -tai chinh. Vi~c xay dl!ng cac mo hInh nay dl!a tren sI!
phan tich cac quan h~ kinh t vi mo va vi mo, d6ng thoi v~n
d1,1ng phudng phap sd d6 kh6i, mo phong cua di~u khie"n hQc.
Vi~c kt h,p khong lam cho vi~c ly giai qua trInh khung
nay
hoang ph((c tc;JP hdn, ma lc;Jiddn gian va r6 rang hdn la chi
dung chti' va cong th((c, bang s6Ii~u, d6 thi.
Tren cd so phudng phap tip c~n nay, chung t6i da
phan tich C1,1 the" qua trInh hInh thanh cac nguy cd khung
Tuy nhien con mf)tso tham sokhac nhuchi sol~mphat, hoang va di~n bin cua khung hoang kinh t -tai chinh 0 b6n
dong von vao thucin, nQ' nu(jc ngoai,lai sua't cho vay, xua't nuoc Thai Lan, Indonesia, Malaysia va Han Qu6c, qua d6
nh~p.kh~u, di~n bie'n (j cac nu(jc l~i c6 xu hu(jng khac nhau chi r6 0 ba nuoc Thai Lan, Indonesia va Han Qu6c da xuilt
[7, tr.lO]. hi~n, tich lt1y ca b6n nguy cd khung hoang vao dciu va giti'a
nam 1997, con 0 Malaysia chi c6 mQt nguy cd khung hoang
". Khung hoang kinh te. tai chinh 1997 .1999 du,c
tich lt1y [7].
phan anh mqt s l,c h,u ye I.Y thuyetkinhteYimo
Cuf)c khung hoang kinh te' -tai chinh (j mf)t so nu(jc III. M6 hlnh "cac nguy co' khun~ hoang va co' che
chau A nam 1997- 1999kh6ng nhli'ng gay ra nhli'ng cha'n phat sinh khung hoang kinh te .tai chinh"
- NGHIEN C(JU & PHAT TRIEN
- ---
ban d1! trU' ngo~i t~ de' duy trl ty gia cti,song den mQt luc nao h6i doai ctia nl1(jc d6 tang m~nh. thI tinh c~nh tranh ctia hang
d6, kh6ng con dti kha nang ban nU'a thl se tha n6i ty gia h6i xuf{tkha'u tit nl1(jc d6 tang.lam cho xuf{t kha'u ctia cac nl1(jc
doai. Luc nay cac nha dfiu tl1nl1oc ngoai chl1a ban tai san (c6 c6 ty gia h6i doai 6n d~nh b~ anh hl1dng xf{u. E>i~u nay lam
phfin, trai phieu, tin phieu) thl se tlm cach ban th~t nhanh va cho can can thl1cfng m~i cua nl1(jc nay cang tham h1,1t.kha
d6i sang ngo~i t~ m~nh de' t6i thie'u h6a thi~t h~i ctia mlnh. nang thanh toan cua qu6c gia cang suy ye:u. E>ay la ap ll!c
Ap l1!c nay cang lam cho ty gia h6i doai tang vQt. E>61a vong bu9c cac nl1(jc nay phai pha gia d6ng n9i t~ de' da'y m~nh
xoay khting hoang thu I, tac dQng ra't nhanh toi ty gia h6i xuf{t kha'u. phong ngita mf{t khii nang thanh toan (Scf d6 3.l ).
doai (Sd d6 3.1 ). C6 the' g9i day la tac d9ng day chuy~n ctia vi~c pha gia n9i
Khi ty gia h6i doai tang vQt, thl nQ nl1oc ngoai ctia cac t~ ctia m9t nl1(jc t(ji cac nl1(jc khac (Scf d6 3.1 ).
ngan hang, c6ng ty tai chinh tinh b~ng d6ng ti~n nQi dia se T6m l~i. tit m6 HInh ..cac nguy ccf khung hoang va ccf
tang VQt theo, trong khi d6 ngl1oi dan I~i d6 x6 di n1t ti~n tiet che: phat sinh khting hoang kinh te: -tai chinh... chungta nh~n
ki~m ra khoi ngan hang. cac ngan hang, v6n lam an da kern thf{y khting hoang kinh te: -tai chinh .'kie'u chau A i997 -
hi~u qua, se nhanh ch6ng ma't kha nang chi tra, pha san (SC1 1999'. da n6 ra v(ji cac di~u ki~n ben trong la sJ..t tich lfiy 4
d63.1). nguy ccf khting hoang. v(ji sI! xuat hi~n va tac d9ng 1dn nhau
va vi~c chi vai ngan hang pha san, se gay tam tr~ng 10 ctia 4 vong xoay khting hoiing va dl1(1i tac d9ng day chuy~n
au cho ngl(oi dan gl(i tit:n tict ki~m O cac ngan hang khac, hQ ctia pha gia n9i t~ (Sd d6 3;1 ).
se I~i ch~y di rut ti~n tiet ki~m ra khoi ngan hang, din den Trlnh tl! xuat hit$nctia cac vohg xoay khung hoang d
vi~c ca cac ngan hang lam an hi~u qua cting c6 the' lam vao m6i nl1(jc. tie:n trlnh khung hoang d m6inl1(Jc c6 khac nhau.
ma't kha nang chi tra, pha san. E>61a vong xoay khting hoang tuy theo hoan canh C1,1 the' (ml1'c d9 tich luy cac nguy ccf
thu 3, tac dQng nhanh (SC1 3.1 ).
d6 khting hoang) va chinh sach d6i ph6 cua m6i nl1(jc.
Khi ty gia h6i doai tang m~nh, nQ ngo~i t~ ctia cac Chung ta si1 d1,1ngthu~t ngu khung hoang kinh te: -tai
doanh nghi~p tinh b~ng ti~n nQi dia se tang VQt, cung voi chinh. vI:
vi~c cac ngan hang, c6ng ty taichinh pha san se kh6ng c6 -N61ien quan de:nye:ut6 n~n tang cua n~n kinh te: m6i
kha nang cung((ng tfn d1,1ng cho cac doanh nghi~p ho~t dQng qu6c gia la ho~ td9ng ctia cac doanh nghi~p. ngan hang va
nti'a. cac doanh nghi~p nao ho~t dQng v6n da ken'lhi~u quii, hi~u qua kinh te: cua chung (khia c~nh kinh te:).
thl gio day se kh6ng c6 dti v6n de' kinh doanh, cang som bi" -N6 lien quan de:n chinh sach ty gia h6i doai. de:n kha
d:Jy toi thua 16 va pha san. Khi doanh nghi~pthua 16 thl cac I nangthanh tban ctia qu6c gia va sI! d.1u tl1 tai chinh cua nl1(jc
, ngoai (khia c~nh tai chinh).
ngan hang, c6ng ty tai chinh l~ikh6ng doi dl1Qc nQ, se cang
pha san nhanh hC1n. E>6 la vong xoay khting hoang thu 4, tac -SI! tac d9ng ldn nhau giua cac ye:u t6 tren trong qua
dQng ch~m hC1n cac vong tntoc (SC1 3.1.).
d6 trInh khting hoang (kinh te: -tai chinh) .
.Khi mQt nl1(Jc bi khting hoang dfin t(Ji h~u qua la ty gia (Con ti~p)
Sd d6 3.1 M6 Hinh "cac nguy cd khung hoang va cd che phat sinh khung hoang kinh te -tai chfnh"
Tic" lily "~J(Jy CO kh,ing ho6ng 1- " l
~ "'.L/'.\J ".."" '1;.f ---, I
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,
, ,
SI/ kem hl~u qua CUll DoQnh nghi~p pha
cAc dcanh nghl~p .J,,/ ",' :c="~ sAn hang 16~t
T8c d.~l'g .~
r ch~m I
-I 0
51,1kem hi$u qua cua NgAn hang phi! san
cac ngfln h8nli1
hang lo~t
D6ng nOi t~ bj I~tt giA NQi 1$ ma:t
NgvOi dan rut
0 r!1c dQng nhal1t,
gi;1 nhanh.
l - ti~n lI~t kiem,
f I I (ty gi6 h6i
I Nguy co quoc gla mA:t i I I
(T1ua ngo(lll$. v6na
i i . dofii tAng)
I .~ l'llIng Ir,anh lo~n
i Tiic -,--~ (2) T!\cdf>ng nhanh
I i J.~C-
d~ng , 1-.~~~g--t,Q
r(\l nhonh ,
, ~--
I
r 'Clay
I chuVen , cac nhil dtill tu nudc
IlgoiJirljtvon(f'Jgi1nI
c
- TONG KEy & Dl/ BAo
Viet N BID
.-
Gs. NGUVEN THII;;N NHAN
(Tie'p theo ky tr1f(jc) nam 1995.
Gia tri xufIt khffu theo d~u ngli(ji d~t 630 USD/ngli(ji
IV. Khung hoang kinh te. tai chinh cJ: Thai Lan nam 1991, da tang 1en 1.177 USD/ngli(ji nam 1996.
4.1. nnh hlnh kinh te: Thai Lan tr1ioc khung hoang Nhlivay, nhln vao m(fc d9 tangtrlidng GDP cua Thai
.GDP tang cao, lien t1,1C, xuilt khffu phat trie'n: Lan su6t hdn 3 thl}p ky tt)' 1961 de'n 1996, ta thfIy rfIt dang
Thai Lan b~t dftu
thoi ky cong nghi~p Bang4.1.S6li~u kinh tThai Lan (di~ntich 514.000 dans661tri~u ngliili)
km2.
h6a dilt n\ioc ti1l961,
khi b~t dftu ke: hoach
phat trie'n nam lftn th11
nhilt. T6c d9 tang
tr1iong GDP trong th~p
nien 60 khoang
8%/nam, trong th~p
nien 70 khoang
7%/nam va trong th~p
nien 80 khoang
8%/nam. T6ng san
phffm n9i dia theo dftu
ng1ioitang ti1 m11c440
USD nam 1955 len
3.012 USD nam 1996
[7].
Nong .nghi~p
chie'm ty trQpg 39%
trong n~n kinh te' vao
nam 1961 giam xu6ng
con 26,7% nam 1976
va chi con 10,4% nam
1996.
Thai Lan da thl.tc
thi mQtchie'n 11.tQc
ph~t
trin dl.ta vao xua't
khffu tit th~p nien 80.
Nam 1986 -1990 t6c
dQ tang trl.tdng xua't
khffu blnh quan la
28%/nam. Nam 1992
va 1993 khoang
13%/nam. Nam 1994 Ngu6n [1, tr.21], [5, tr.710].
va 1995 khoang gehi chu (Bang 4;1 ): EJautIJ khac thuan: cho vay ngan h~n, tin dt.JngthIJdng m~i [5, xx].
20%/nam. Nam 1996, L -t6ng gia tri tu 1991 den 1996.
tang trl.tdng xua't kh:Ju 9~
hang h6a va dich VI;1 TB -gia tr! trung binh giai do~n 1991 den 1996.
chi con 3,4% so voi 91
26 ,
PHA T TI{II,N
...'
KINH TI-: Th"nl: (;ienl: 2(1113
- TONG
-, KET & Dt! BAO
yen tam, vI t6c dQ tang GDP blnh quan hang nam luon tu T6ng d.1u tu'trl:tc tie'p thoi ky nay la 11,70 1 ty USP, t6ng
7% de'n &%. Tuy nhien, chi tieu GDP m{ji phan anh dffu ra d.1u tu' trl:tc tie'p cua Thai Lan ra nu'oc ngoai la 2,857 ti
cua nlo-nkinh te' ma chJja dlo-c~p de'n dffu vao. Dffu vao USD, do v~y t6ng d.1u tu trl!c tie'p thu.1n la 8,844 ti USD
chinh la dffu tJj. (Bang 4, 1).
Trong thoi ky 1991 -1996, dffu tJj cua Thai Lan ra't Trong khi d6, t6ng d.1u tu'tai chinh thu.1n (c6 ph.1n,
cao, hang nam chie'm blnh quan 40% GDP (Bang 4.1). trai phie'u) la 16.4 ti USD. va t6ng vay ngAn h~n thu.1n la
Tang trJjdng cao, ma chi phi tang trJjdng thf{p thl m{ji blo-n 60,04 ti USD. Nhu' v~Y. trong t6ng s6 v6n nu'oc ngoai
vi1ng. Tang trJjdng cao dl!a tren hi~u qua kinh te' cao cua thu.1n da d6 vao Thai Lan thoi ky 1991 -19961a 85,293 ti
san xuf{t kinh doanh m{ji lau blo-n.Blnh quan tu 1991 t{ji USD thl d.1u tu' trl!c tie'p chi chie'm 10.36% (8.844 ti
1996, h~ s6 ICOR cua kinh te'Thai Lap la 5,22 (Bang USD), d.flu tu' gian tie'p 19,23% (16,404 ti USD) va tin
4.1). Tuc la phai dffu tJj 5,22 Baht thl GDP m{ji tang 1 dl;lng, vay ngAn h~n toi 70.4% (60,045 ti USD) (Bang
Baht. 4.1).
.cac doanh nghi
- NGHI~N cOO & PHAT TRIEN
USD, lam tang cfiu ngo
- NGHlf.N cUu & PHAT TRltN
SI,t pha san cua cac doanh nghi~p, tuy tac d9ng ch~rn , qua hai long thoa man trong thoi ky tang trttdng kinh te' nhanh
hdn, song se l
- (Tie'p theo trang 15) cac ngan hang kem, thl de:uc6 t6c d9tang tru'(jng GDP blnh
quan tha'p hdn lai sua't tie:n gm blnh quan. Con My va
Singapore la hai nuOcc6 tie'ng la hi~u qua kinh te' cao, thl t6c
d9 tang tru'(jng GDP de:u cao hdn lai sua't tie:n gm. Ngay ca
Bai h9c 2: D'e'cac doanh nghi{:p va nf:n kinh te phat trien
Malaysia, tuy c6 m9t nguy cd khung hoang, song do hi~u qua
~n vU'ngthllai sua'tv6n vay de' d&u tu' phill tu'dng du'dng v{ji
kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p va ngan hang vftn cao nen
ho~c nho hdn kha nang sinh loi cua doanh nghi{:p.
tang tru'(jng GDP vftn lOn hdn lai sua't tie:n gm (Bang 5.1).
Nhu' v~y, de' phat trie'n ~n vU'ng, lai sua't tin d1,lngchu
Bai hQc 3: C~n c6 m9t t5 chi1c chuyen trach cua Ch1nh
y~u phai ffinh thanh qua quan h{: cung c&u v6n tten ~
phu theo doi s1!bie'n d9ng cua l~m phat, ti gia h6i doai, lai sua't
tru'ong, ch(Jkhong phai dl:l'avao y chi cua Nha nu'{jc.N~u lai
tin d1,1ngtrong nuOcva qu6c te'; can can tai khoan vang lai, nc;J
sua'ttin 41,lngnho hdn kha nang sinh loi cua doanh nghi{:p va
qu6c gia, hi~u qua kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p df!:de:
san phgm cua doanh nghi{:p c6 tinh c~nh tranh cao, thl doanh
xua't cac ch1nhsach va die:u tie't c~n thie't, bao dam phat tJif!:n
qu6c gia be:n vUng
Bang 5.1: Tang tru'dng GDP b1nhquan va lai sua'tti~n gi1i b1nhquan 1991-1996 vOi tang tru'(jng
r="""C"~C"t~"~~0"~~:~~',""" ~=~~=1 "'. .
I r. " tu'dng dOl cao
Th3 Malaysia ,
My ~l~~!!?:-.
~-'+B!:~U§£~!~~~e~-a T
7.721 7.421 7.2 J !\.75 5.32 --;:11.26 1 Tai li~u tham khao:
;;;1
~ ang tru(jng GlJP binh qufin 1991 1. ASEAN University
1996 (%/nam) - --Network, Economic
7,33 6,70 4.77 3,30 Crisis in Southeast
Lffi sua't ti~n gt'ti binh qufin 1991 - 10,26 !\,90
1996 (%/nam)
~-~""-c~~ """ O~C~~~~ ~~~ ~~~-~-i~~~ ~i~i~na~~dK~~~~;~~~
Publisher, Seoul, Ko-
Ngu6n: [5] rea, 2000.
2. Vi$n nghien ciJu
.thlldng m~i Khung
nghi~p c6 the' sc cang phal lrie'n nhanh va hi~u qua kinh hoang mi chinh -tien t$ O chAu A, NXB chinh tri quoc gia, Ha N9i,
doanh cao, ne'u cang vay du'Qcnhi~u y6n. T(J'cla vay v6n ma 1998.
3. "Fusion Confusion", The Economist, 4.4.1998, P87 .
l'cili
phat trie'n ~n vUng. 4. f)inh Thdm, Khung hoang mi chinh -tien t$ khu VI,fC,nguyen nh8n va
So sanh t6c d9 tang lru'dng GDP va lai sua:tti~n gm d m9t giai phap, NXB thOng tin KHXH, Ha N9i, 1998.
s6nu'& cho ta minh h9a kha thu v~ (Bang 5.1). 5. IMF, International Statistics, 1.1999.
6. Facts about Korea, Korean Information Service, Seoul, Korea,
Ba nu'Oc tich lGy dll ca b6n nguy cd khlmg hoang kinh
da
2001.
te' -tai chinh la Thai Lan, Han Qu6c va Indonesia, lrong d6 c6 7. Nguy~n Thi$n NhAn, Khung hoang kinh te -tai chfnh O chAu A 1997
~ 1999, NXB f)~i hQc Quoc gia TP .HCM , 2002.
hai nguy cd, hi~u qua kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghi~p va
PHA T TRJI-:N KINH 11': Thang Hlli 2'"13 35
nguon tai.lieu . vn