Global Chemicals Outlook - Trends and Indicators

Global Chemicals Outlook Pillar I: Trends and Indicators Rachel Massey1 & Molly Jacobs2 1 Massachusetts Toxics Use Reduction Institute, University of Massachusetts Lowell 2 Lowell Center for Sustainable Production, University of Massachusetts Lowell DRAFT November 8, 2011 NOT FOR CIRCULATION OR CITATION 1 DRAFT – Not for Circulation or Citation Table of Contents 1. Introduction 1.1 Scope 1.2 Data Sources 2. Portrait of the Chemical Industry 2.1 Subsectors of the Chemical Industry 2.2 Number of Chemicals on the Market 2.3 The Chemical Life Cycle 3. Trends in Global Chemical Production and Consumption 3.1 Global Trends in Chemical Sales 3.2 Global forecasts for the Chemical Industry: Looking forward to 2020 3.3 Sector-Specific Chemical Use Trends and Projections: Selected Industries 3.4 Driving Factors Influencing Global Trends and Projections 4. Trends in Production & Consumption of Industrial Chemicals: Bulk Organics, Inorganics, and Halogenated Compounds 4.1 Bulk Organic Chemicals 4.2 Bulk Inorganic Chemicals 4.3 Halogenated Organic Compounds 5. Trends in Production and Consumption of Metals 5.1 Lead 5.2 Mercury 5.3 Cadmium 5.4 Other Metals 6. Trends in Production and Consumption of Fibers: Asbestos 7. Trends in Production and Consumption of Agricultural Chemicals 7.1 Fertilizers 7.2 Pesticides 7.2.1 Insecticides 7.2.2 Herbicides 7.2.3 Fungicides 7.2.4 Trends in Pesticide Use in Africa 8. Products containing chemicals 9. Reuse, Recycling and Disposal of Chemicals 9.1 PRTR Data 9.2 Data Submitted under the Basel Convention DRAFT – Not for Circulation or Citation 9.3 Studies of Chemical Waste in Developing Countries 9.4 Special Categories of Waste: Priority Concerns for Developing Countries 9.4.1 Electronic Waste 9.4.2 Obsolete Pesticides 9.4.3 Small Scale Gold Mining 10. Trends Associated with the Environmental Effects of Chemicals 10.1 Air Resources 10.1.1 Ozone Depleting Substances 10.2 Water Resources 10.3 Soil Resources 10.4 Wildlife impacts 11. Trends Associated with the Human Health Effects of Chemicals 11.1 Lack of Information on Health and Environmental Effects of Chemicals 11.2 Exposure Pathways, Vulnerable and Susceptible Population and Categories of Effects 11.3 Health Outcomes Associated with Chemical Exposure 11.4 Tracking Human Exposure to Chemicals: Trends from Human Biomonitoring Data 11.5 The Magnitude of Disease Burden Due to Chemicals 11.6 Significant Health Effects Associated with Chemicals 11.6.1 Acute Poisonings 11.6.2 Chronic Disease 12. Conclusion DRAFT – Not for Circulation or Citation 1. Introduction Chemicals are an integral part of modern daily life. They are constituents of materials; parts of preparations and products; and are embedded in complex physical systems. Chemicals are used in a wide variety of products and play an important role in the world economy. While chemicals are a significant contributor to national economies, sound chemical management across the lifecycle—from extraction to disposal—is essential not only to avoid significant risks to human health and the environment along with their associated economic costs, but also to maximize the benefits of their contribution to human well-being. This report examines patterns and trends in global production, use and disposal of chemicals and products containing chemicals. It then considers patterns and trends in health and environmental impacts of chemicals. The information presented in this report shows that while chemical production, use and disposal continue to expand worldwide, this expansion is not evenly distributed geographically. Growth in the chemical production and use has slowed in many of the developed countries that previously dominated the market, while it has accelerated rapidly in a number of countries with economies in transition. These countries with economies in transition are, increasingly, the drivers of global expansion in production and use of these chemicals. Wastes from the chemical industry are also not equally distributed globally and waste from products containing chemicals is an increasing source of concern in developing countries. Changing patterns in the global distribution of chemical production and use, in turn, has implications for human health and the environment. Among other concerns, the adverse health effects of chemicals can be exacerbated by poverty, poor nutritional and health status that increase disease susceptibility. 1.1 Scope This report considers geographic patterns and trends over time in production, use and disposal of industrial organic and inorganic chemicals, selected metals, and agricultural chemicals. The first part of this report focuses on two main economic indicators to describe historical trends as well as economic forecasts (where possible) for the chemical industry: chemical production (or output), and chemical consumption (or demand). The report also includes some limited information on trade patterns, where other data are lacking. In the choice of these indicators, this report follows the approach used by OECD.1 Trends associated with environmental releases, recycling and disposal of chemicals in this report primarily rely on indicators used by pollution release and transfer registries (PRTRs) in many OECD countries as well as data regarding the net global movement of hazardous waste as collected under the Basel Convention. While, PRTR data are lacking for developing countries and those in economic transition, the report includes case examples of growing threats to the environment and human health from chemical emissions, wastes and high-risk recycling industries in these regions. The report also includes a brief, but 1 DRAFT – Not for Circulation or Citation not comprehensive, discussion of chemicals in consumer products. The report does not discuss pharmaceuticals. Health and environmental impacts associated with industrial chemicals are explored in the second part of this report. Background information regarding the growing state of knowledge of links to public health and environmental impacts associated with chemicals are provided, including quantification where possible regarding the number of chemicals associated with health and environmental endpoints. The primary indicators used in this report for tracking the impact of chemicals on human health and the environment (e.g. wildlife) are environmental monitoring data and biomonitoring data where available. Both of these indicators are among key risk reduction indicators adopted by United Nation‘s Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management Secretariat in 2009 for tracking the effectiveness of sound chemicals management over time.2 This report also provides information from the most comprehensive study to date examining the magnitude of specific health effects attributable (attributable fractions) to industrial chemicals. In addition, geographic and temporal trends, including forecasts for both health (incidence and/or prevalence) and environmental impacts across developed and developing countries are described where available. 1.2 Data Sources The discussion in this report on chemical production, use and disposal and the sections on health and environmental impacts draws on a number of sources, including both publicly available and proprietary resources. Publicly available data sources on industrial organic and inorganic chemical trends include reports from industry associations such as the International Council of Chemistry Associations (ICCA), the American Chemistry Council (ACC), the European Chemical Industry Association (CEFIC), the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), and CropLife International; reports from intergovernmental agencies including the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO and others; government data sources such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS); and articles in industry journals as well as peer-reviewed academic journals. Proprietary data sources used for this report include the Chemical Economics Handbook and the Specialty Chemicals Update Report series, both published by SRI International; the American Chemistry Council‘s Guide to the Business of Chemistry; and data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Sources for the health and environmental impact sections include peer-reviewed journal articles as well as reports and statistics from governmental and intergovernmental agencies, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank. 2. Portrait of the Chemical Industry The chemical industry is divided into a number of broad subsectors. Different classification systems provide different definitions of these subsectors, but they are nonetheless useful in drawing the broad outlines of the industry. This section provides a brief overview of these subsectors, then reviews available information on the total number of chemicals currently on the market. 2 ... - tailieumienphi.vn