GIS and Evidence-Based Policy Making - Chapter 5

5 Policy Implications of Pockets of Deprivation in Scotland Daniel Exeter, Robin Flowerdew, and Paul Boyle CONTENTS 5.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 95 5.2 Data and Methods...................................................................................... 97 5.2.1 Population Density as a Measure of Rurality............................ 97 5.2.2 Carstairs Index of Deprivation at the Pseudo Postcode Sector Level..................................................................... 99 5.2.3 Ranking the Carstairs Index ......................................................... 99 5.2.4 Difference between Output Area and Pseudo Postcode Sector Carstairs Scores................................................ 101 5.2.5 Carless Carstairs Ranking ........................................................... 105 5.2.6 Difference between Output Area and Pseudo Postcode Sector Carless Carstairs Scores.................................. 105 5.3 Funding and Homogeneity of Deprivation in Health Boards.......... 106 5.4 Conclusions................................................................................................ 109 5.5 Future Research......................................................................................... 111 Acknowledgments............................................................................................. 111 References ........................................................................................................... 112 5.1 Introduction There are many examples of research that make use of composite measures of material and=or social deprivation calculated at the area level to depict the socioeconomic status of an area (Townsend, 1987; Carstairs and Morris, 1991; Salmond et al., 1998; Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions, 2000; Kearns et al., 2000; Senior, 2002). Much of this research has focused on populations at the ward level in England and Wales, or the pseudo postcode sector level in Scotland. The ward and pseudo postcode sector level are typically used to preserve confidentiality of residents and 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. minimize problems associated with statistics carried out on areas with a small number of observations. Pockets of deprivation could be defined as small areas that are signifi-cantly more deprived than their neighboring areas. When deprivation indices are calculated at the ward and pseudo postcode sector levels, there is a possibility that the assigned value to an area might hide pockets of deprivation: enumeration districts in England and Wales or output areas in Scotland that are notably less affluent than the ward=pseudo postcode sector in which they are located. A recent paper by Haynes and Gale (2000) suggests that the large geographical space that is covered by a Census ward in rural areas might be too large to be homogeneous and that pockets of deprivation do exist. In rural areas, a ‘‘neighbor’’ might be a number of miles, rather than a matter of meters, away. Nevertheless, there is every possibility that the ward contains residents of less affluent status than is assigned to the ward by way of a socioeconomic indicator or deprivation index. At present, many public sector organizations use both deprivation indices and=or health data to determine their catchment area’s demographic pro-files and resource allocation, typically at the pseudo postcode sector level (Mc Laren and Bain, 1998). Health boards, for example, are funded based on the Arbuthnott deprivation index, which accounts for remoteness (Scottish Executive Health Department, 1999). However, the use of the pseudo post-code sector for this type of analysis in rural areas potentially fails to identify small neighborhoods that are most in need of funding. In more remote parts of Scotland, the pseudo postcode sectors cover a large area and in some cases only include one or two output area(s), so the possibility of obscuring deprived households is significant. This chapter investigates whether pockets of deprivation exist in Scotland using pseudo postcode sectors and output areas, and it is expected that such areas are particularly likely to exist in rural areas. We first use the Carstairs index of deprivation (Carstairs and Morris, 1991) to identify the most deprived output areas that are not located in the most deprived pseudo postcode sectors. Second, we consider the difference between output area Carstairs and the Carstairs score of the pseudo postcode sector in which the output area is located. A high positive value will identify situations in which an output area is significantly more deprived than the pseudo postcode sector in which it is located. We also recalculate the Carstairs index excluding the car ownership variable, henceforth known as the carless Carstairs index, because access to a motor vehicle in rural areas is a necessity rather than a measure of affluence, as is often the case in urban areas (Higgs and White, 2000). We repeat the ranking and difference calculation on the carless Carstairs index. The implications our results have on policy are then assessed in relation to health boards in Scotland. It is assumed that since deprivation indices are commonly used in resource allocation, areas that are more homoge-neous are likely to gain more support from funding bodies. The more 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. heterog eneous the outpu t a reas within a pseud o postcode sec tor, the m likel y areas of sign ificant depriva tion will be ign ored. Using the m standar d deviat ion of the differen ce betwee n output area Cars tairs and Cars tairs sco re of the pseudo postcode sector, we calcul ate the heterog en of depr ivation in health boards across Scotlan d. Thi s meas ure shou ld high values for health boards wh ere pseudo postcode secto rs are hete r gene ous and low val ues wh ere they are homo geneous. 5.2 Da ta and Met hods In this chapter , we use popul ation dens ity and the Carstai rs index depr ivation for 19 91 as surro gate measu res fo r rurality and area-le depr ivation and two appro aches to iden tify pockets of depr ivation . F we sim ply identify depr ived output area s that are not located within most depr ived pseud o postc ode sectors and inve stigate these locat io furthe r by ran king the pseudo postc ode sectors and output areas by dep ation. Secondly , we locate outpu t areas that are notably more depr ived t the pseudo postc ode sectors in wh ich they are locat ed, iden tified by differen ce betwe en the Cars tairs score at bot h level s of aggregati on. W the first measu re as a spatial indicato r of absolute in equality, wh er the second indic ator is a meas ure of relative depr ivati on. 5.2.1 Populat ion Dens ity as a Measur e of Rurality Altho ugh the Of fice of Nationa l Statist ics (ONS ) provid=reusraaln urb an inde x for Engl and and Wales a t the ward level, there is no sim ilar in Scotlan d that is commo nly used. The Ge neral Register Office for Scotla (GROS) has produc ed a six-class scale that is based on popul ation dens with in contin uous areas. A value of on e indicate s a very ur ban settle such as Glasgow and Edinb urgh, and a value of six in dicates a very re settlement, defined officially as ‘‘not in a locality’’ (GRO Scotland, 2001). However, the GROS index was difficult to replicate and the areas are not comparable to the census geography used here. In this work, a surrogate urban=rural measure has been calculated based on population density per square kilometer at the pseudo postcode sector level, which is shown in Figure 5.1. We categorize d areas that had a popul ation dens ity of less 100 as rural. Area s with a popu lation den sity betwe en 1 00 and 1000 categorized as suburban, and above 1000 as urban. As one might expect, population density is greatest in the urban areas of Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. The population density decreases from the city centers out to the suburbs and diminishes as one moves further from the major cities. A very low population density in the Highlands will exist due to the topography of the mountain ranges making the area uninhabitable in many places. Population density is fairly high 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Inset: Shetland Islands Legend Population density (km2) 0–100 100–1000 1000+ © Crown copyright FIGURE 5.1 Population density in Scotland. (From 1991 Census: Digitised Boundary Data (Scotland), 1991 Census: Small Area Statistics (Scotland).) along the east coast of Scotland between Aberdeen and Dundee, and also between Glasgow and Edinburgh, where settlements flank the main high-ways between these cities. Pseudo postcode sector population density ranges continuously from 0.196 in one pseudo postcode sector in Orkney to 11704.07 persons per square kilometer in one pseudo postcode sector in Edinburgh, and there are four pseudo postcode sectors with extremely high population densities in Glasgow, where the densities range from 55609.48 to 19223.24 persons per square kilometer. These extreme outliers are possibly due to a high proportion of tower block housing in a small area. 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. 5.2.2 Carsta irs Ind ex of Depr ivation at the Pseudo Pos tcode Sector Leve There have been man y definiti ons and interpret ations of depr ivati on in litera ture over the past two decade s (Town send, 1987; Cars tairs a nd Mo 1991; Salmon d et al., 1998; Departm ent of the Environ ment, Transpor t the Regi ons, 2000; Kear ns et al., 2000). In Scotlan d, the more commo accepte d me asure of depr ivati on is the in dex devel oped by Car stair Morr is (1991). The ind ex is comprise d of four sta ndardized variabl es cating level s of mal e une mploym ent, lack of car owner ship, low soc ial and living in over crowd ed co nditions. A negati ve Car stairs score indic areas of rela tively low depr iva tion and a positive score rep resents m relati vely depr ived neighbo rhoods. The inde x rang4.e0s7 ftroom15.63, with a mean of 0.081 and a standard deviat ion of 2.97 in output areas; for pseudo postc ode secto rs the ra7n.4g9e tois 12.87 with a me]a0n.58of and a standar d deviation of 3.6 1. Some area s recordi ng zero val ues fo or more components of the index affected the calculation of the Carstairs index at the output area level, however this does not influence our results, as we are interested in the extreme level of deprivation. Figure 5.2 sho ws the distrib ution of the Carstairs Index of depr ivati on pseudo postcode sectors in Scotland. The most deprived areas are located in urban areas of Glasgow, Edinburgh, and Dundee, with a few areas in the Western Isles also appearing more deprived. In general, those areas that were iden tified as having low popul ation densit ies in Figu re 5.1 appear deprived in Figure 5.2. While Figure 5.2 shows the spatial distribution of the Carstairs index of deprivation for the pseudo postcode sector level, the index has also been calculated at the output area level for analysis in this work, which produces a similar, denser pattern than the pseudo postcode sector level. There was a slight positive relationship between output area Carstairs score and pseudo postcode sector population density, with a correlation coefficient of 0.206 (p < 0.01). This suggests that in areas of low population density, such as rural areas, material deprivation observed at the output area level is the lowest. Nevertheless, there were a number of urban areas that have low population densities, located in the central business district, or on the outskirts of the urban center. 5.2.3 Ranking the Carstairs Index A preliminary investigation to identify pockets of deprivation was made by simply ranking all pseudo postcode sectors and output areas in Scotland by the Carstairs score, from the most deprived to the most affluent. We extracted the most deprived 10% pseudo postcode sectors and the most deprived 1% output areas for further analysis. This resulted in a sample of 101 pseudo postcode sectors from Dundee, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Inverness, Motherwell, Paisley, and Perthshire and another containing 380 output areas from postcodes within Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, Fife, Glasgow, 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. ... - tailieumienphi.vn