FUTURE ROLES OF U.S. NUCLEAR FORCES

FUTURE ROLES OF U.S. NUCLEAR FORCES Implications for U.S. Strategy GLENN C. BUCHAN DAVID M ATONICK C ALVIN SHIPBAUGH RICHARD MESIC Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited R Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Future roles of U.S. nuclear forces : implications for U.S. strategy / Glenn Buchan ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. MR-1231-AF ISBN 0-8330-2917-7 1. Strategic forces—United States. 2. United States—Military policy. 3. Nuclear weapons—United States. I. Buchan, Glenn C. UA23 .F883 2000 355.02`17`0973—dc21 00-045817 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States Air Force. Cover design by Tanya Maiboroda © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org PREFACE This study examines the possible roles of nuclear weapons in con-temporary U.S. national security policy. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been reexamining its basic assumptions about foreign policy and various instruments of national security policy to define its future needs. Nowhere is such an examination more important than in the nuclear arena. Research for this document was completed in the summer of 2000 and, therfore, predates the current administration`s Nuclear Posture Review. A lengthy governmental clearance and public release review process has resulted in the 2003 publication date of this formal report. A lot has happened since then. The Bush administration has com-pleted its NPR, which is classified, although much of it has been leaked to the press. The United States has conducted a war against Iraq, which it rationalized primarily on the grounds that Iraq was be-lieved to be developing weapons of mass destruction (i.e., chemical and biological weapons in the near term; nuclear weapons in the long term). The United States also faces a confrontation with North Korea, which claims to have already developed a few nuclear weapons and threatens to make more, and Iran, which U.S. intelli-gence believes has a covert nuclear weapons program. The Bush administration has also announced plans to develop a new genera-tion of nuclear weapons, improved earth penetrators with small-yield warheads to destroy underground facilities more effectively. The Bush administration has signed a new arms reduction treaty with Russia (i.e., the Moscow Treaty). It has also withdrawn from the iii iv Future Roles of U.S. Nuclear Forces: Implications for U.S. Strategy Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and announced its intention to deploy a National Missile Defense (NMD) system to protect the United States from attacks by rogue states. This report does not consider any of these specific events, although it does cover all the relevant general topics. Updating the report would amount to doing a whole new study, so we chose to release the report in its original form. The general analysis is still relevant and should inform any future debate on future U.S. nuclear strategy. Futher, discerning readers will note a few locations in the text where, for reasons of classification, the authors have been forced to sidestep the historical record, and we beg the reader`s indulgence for these instances. While they produce some distortion in facts as presented, they do not affect the basic analysis contained here. On balance, we judged that broader interests were served by the wide distribution of a slightly imperfect unclassified document, rather than more limited distribution of a classified report that would be more accurate in a narrow, technical sense. This work should be of interest to those involved in nuclear strategy, force planning, arms control, and operational planning. The work was conducted in Project AIR FORCE’s Strategy and Doctrine Program, which was directed by Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad at the time we did the work. Subsequently, Dr. Ted Harshberger succeeded Dr. Khalilzad as director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program. The project leader was Dr. Glenn Buchan. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of RAND, is the Air Force feder-ally funded research and development center for studies and analy-ses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readi-ness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... xi Tables.......................................... xiii Summary ....................................... xv Acknowledgments................................. xxiii Acronyms ....................................... xxv Chapter One INTRODUCTION .............................. 1 Chapter Two NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND U.S. SECURITY—BACK TO BASICS .................................. 3 What Nuclear Weapons Do ....................... 3 Risks and Disadvantages of Nuclear Weapons ......... 5 The Historical Legacy ........................... 7 Chapter Three CONTEMPORARY ROLES FOR U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS................................ 13 The New Security Environment .................... 13 Future Nuclear Threats ........................ 14 Other Kinds of Threats......................... 24 U.S. National Security Policy: A Spectrum of Possibilities ............................... 33 Abstinence ................................. 33 Defense.................................... 35 v ... - tailieumienphi.vn