Xem mẫu
- TlNH TRANG P H A RC/NG 6 VI$T NAM:
NHAN T 6 TAC DONG VA MQT S 6 KHUYDN NGHI.
P h a m Thi T h a n h Thuy*
"Pha rffng" dffpc xac dinh la "viec lam den pha rffng; tac gia de xuat mdt so'
mat dat cd rffng" (Allen and Barnes 1985, chinh sach va giai phap quan ly nham
trang 167). TffPng tff, Grainger (1993, h a n che n a n pha rffng.
trang 34) da coi dd la "viec mat di mpt
1. Thi^c t r a n g rvCng d V i e t N a m
each tam thdi hay vinh viln" vi bat ky ly
do nao. Chat pha rffng dan den nhieu he Trong nhieu t h a p nien cua the ky XX
luy, theo Lovejoy (1997), pha rffng gay dien tich rffng ca nffdc hi t a n pha nang
tdn thffong nang ne da dang sinh hpc, da ne va giam di n h a n h chdng. Tff nam 1943
lam trai dat mat di qua nffa trong tdng so' den 1976, dien tich rffng da tff 14.3 trieu
tff 10 trieu den 30 trieu loai sinh vat. ha xud'ng cdn 11,2 trieu ha khien dp che
Nhieu tac gia cho rang, pha rffng la phu da tff 43% giam xudng 33,8% va
nguyen nhan gia tang hien tffpng am len tham chi chi cdn 30% vao nam 1985
ciia khi hau bdi rffng la nai hap thu C02 (Werger and Nghia 2005: 36, World Bank
cua trai dat, cdn C02 lai la tac nhan chu 2005: 22). Theo nhieu phan tich, hau qua
yeu cua hien tffpng nha kinh hien nay. bom dan trong cac cuoc chien tranh dffpc
(Allen va Barnes 1985, Nguyen va coi la nguyen n h a n chinh cua n a n mat
Azomahou 2007). Pha rffng cdn lam mat rffng trong giai doan nay (Quy 1985;
di sinh ke cua rat nhieu ngffdi dan (Allen Bouny 2006),
and Barnes 1985, Mai 1999, Grafton iJdc tinh cua Ngan hang P h a t trien
2004). Bdi vay, nghien cffu va ngan chan chau A ADB (2000) cho rang, tff nam
nan pha rffng dang la md'i quan tam cua 1975 den 1985, mdi nam Viet Nam mat
nhieu qudc gia. ehffng 185.000 ha rffng; dffpc coi la qudc
Cd nhieu nguyen nhan dffpc de cap gia mat rffng n h a n h va nhieu n h a t so vdi
trong nghien cffu ve nan pha rffng d Viet cac nffdc trong khu vffc ((De Koninck
Nam, song viec dinh Iffpng nhffng nhan td 1999).
tac dpng den tinh trang mat rffng, tren cP Vao nam 1995, rffng ca nffdc chi cdn
sd dd de xuat nhffng chinh sach thich hpp 10,88 trieu ha vdi dp che phu 28,2%
dang cdn nhieu h a n che. Tff thffc trang (Werger and Nghia 2005: 37). Bang nhieu
Viet Nam, bai viet de cap den nhffng ket nd Iffc kh&c phuc, dp che phu rffng Viet
qua nghien cffu lien quan den nan pha Nam da tffng bffdc phuc hdi, dat mffc
rffng; gidi thieu md hinh phan tich cac 37.3% (tffpng dffang vdi 12.3 trieu ha) vao
nhan td anh hffdng, phffpng phap hdi quy nam 2004. Bien dpng dien tich rffng Viet
tuyen tinh (OLS) de ffdc tinh tac ddng cua Nam giai doan 1943-2004 dffpc the hien
sffe ep dan sd; nhu cau san xuat, tieu thu trong Bang 1.
gd, tinh trang ddi ngheo va cac yeu td dia
ly tac dpng den pha rffng. Tren cP sd ke't * Pham Thi Thanh Thuy, Vu Hoj: a, Bo Ke' hoach
qua ffdc Iffpng va phan tich co che dSn va Dau tu.
QUAN L KINH TE
Y 86 35(8+9/2010)
- TlNH TRANG PHA RUNG d VIET NAM: N H A N TO T A C DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
NGHIEN CllfU - T A 001
RO \^t\\i
Bang 1. Bien dpng di^n tich rufng ciia Vi^t Nam giai doan 1943-2004
1943 1976 1990 1995 1999 2004
Dien tich rffng (trieu ha): 14,3 11,2 9,14 9,3 10,9 12,3
Dien tich rffng tff nhien (million ha) na. 11,07 8,4 8,2 9,4 10,1
Dien tich rffng trdng (million ha) na. 0,13 0,74 1,1 1,5 2,2
Dp che phu cua rffng (%) 43,2 33,8 27,7 28,2 33,1 37,3
Nguon: Ngan hang The gidi (NHTG-WB), 2005; Vietnam Environment Monitor 2005.
Tff nam 1986 den nay, nen kinh te nguyen thien nhien khac deu thudc sd
Viet Nam da phat trien an tffpng vdi td'c hffu cua nha nffdc. Hp gia dinh, ngffdi dan
dp tang trffdng binh quan h a n g n a m hay cac lam trffdng qudc doanh (LTQD)
khoang 8%. Tuy nhien, kinh te phat trien chi dffpc trao quyen sff dung (ICRAF
nhanh cung da tac dpng tieu cffc khdng 2007).
nhd den nganh lam nghiep va bao ve He thdng rffng bao tdn d Viet Nam bao
rffng (Werner and Nghia 2005). Hau qua gdm 17 vffdn, 60 trung tam qudc gia va 18
pha rffng khdng chi tac ddng bat Ipi den khu vffc bao tdn thien nhien cd tdng dien
dan cff sd'ng trong vung cd rffng, ma cdn
tich 2.123.354 ha, chiem khoang 7% tdng
la nguyen nhan gay nhffng t r a n lu lich sff
dien tich rffng hien cd (WB 2005, ICRAF
trong vdng hai mffai nam qua (Sunderlin
2007). Chinh phu Viet Nam da trien khai
and Ba 2005, WB 2005).
nhieu chffPng trinh phat trien, trdng
2. Khung luat p h a p va mpt so' rffng. ChffPng trinh 327 nham vao bao ve,
chv^tfng trinh p h a t t r i e n l a m n g h i e p phat trien trdng mdi va giam n a n chat
pha rffng dffdi ten gpi "phd xanh ddt
Nhan thffc tac hai va chi phi do n a n
trdng doi nui trgc" dffpc coi la sang kien
pha rffng ngay cang gia tang, nam 1991,
quan trpng de ddi phd vdi n a n pha rffng
Qudc hpi nffdc CHXHCN Viet Nam da
thdng qua Luat Bao ve va phat trien Trong giai doan 1992-1996, Chinh phu da
rffng. Day dffpc coi la van ban phap ly gianh ngudn vdn tffong dffPng vdi 213
dau tien lien quan den phat trien nganh trieu USD de hd trp trdng mdi 397.000 ha
lam nghiep, phat trien va bao ve rffng. va tai sinh 299.000 ha rffng (Morris and
Tiep theo dd, nhieu van ban phap ly khac Ingles 2003).
nhff Luat Dat dai (1993), Luat Dat dai sffa Chffong trinh 661 cdn gpi la chffPng
ddi, bd sung; Luat Bao ve mdi trffdng trinh 5 trieu ha rffng (5 MHRP), la bffdc
(1992)... dffpc ban hanh, da hinh t h a n h tie'p theo cua chffong trinh 327, dffpc trien
khung phap ly de thuc hien cham sdc, khai nam 1998 va sffa ddi, bd sung vao
bao ve va phat trien rffng (ICRAF 2007, nam 2005, da bao gdm ca trdng mdi
Thuan 2005). 450.000 ha rffng khdng vi muc dich khai
Theo quy dinh phap luat, rffng dffpc thac gd, nham gdp phan dffa dp che phu
phan lam 3 loai va cac quyen.hpp phap rffng ca nffdc len 43%.
cua ngffdi sff dung rffng dupc thffa nhan. Ca hai chffong trinh 327 va 661 deu
Rffng cung nhff dat dai va cac ngudn tai
hoat dpng theo hinh thffc hpp ddng thue
So 35 (8+9/2010)
QUAN LY KINH TE ^
- [OT1 NGHIEN COlU - TRAO 001 TlNH TRANG PHA RL/NG 6 VIET NAM: N H A N TO TAC BONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGH!
khoan tdi cac dan vi lam trffdng, hp dan theo Ngan hang The gidi (WB 2005)
tai dia ban theo ca che hd trp tff ngan khoang 6 trieu ha rffng dang cd nguy cff hi
sach nha nffdc. Nhd nhffng chinh sach thieu rui.
phu hop, nan pha rffng bat dau dffge ngan P h a n tich nguyen n h a n chat Iffgng
chan, dp che phu dffPc nang len 37,3% vao rffng thap, nhieu ngffdi cho rang nhffng
nam 2004. (Thuan 2005, ICRAF 2007). gidng cay rffng sff dung hien nay cd gia
Mac du dp che phu rffng da gia tang, tri kinh te t h a p va cham phat trien
song chat Iffgng rffng tff nhien v i n tiep (Dang va cdng sff, 2001). Dieu nay de doa
tuc suy giam (WB 2005). Bieu dd 1 cho den da dang sinh hpc, ddng thdi tac dpng
thay, rffng ram nhiet ddi chi chiem 4,6% tieu cffc den ngudn thu cua ngffdi trdng
tdng dien tich rffng tff nhien gan 70% rffng. Mat khac, nhffng hoat dpng ndng
dien tich rffng cd chat Iffgng rat thap ve nghiep thffdng mang lai ngudn thu nhap
trff Iffgng gd va da dang sinh hgc (Dang nhanh va thffdng xuyen hon so vdi trdng
et al. 2001, WB 2005). Ngoai ra, cung va cham sdc rffng (De Jong et al. 2006).
Bieu do 1. Chat lifoTng r d n g thay doi trong giai doan 1990-2004
12
^ 10. RCfng chat lUpng thap
to
o
I 8.
Rdng chat lUpng
=. 6 trung binh
o
RC/ng chat li/png cao
^ 2
0
1990 2000 2004
Nguon: Ngan hang The Gidi, 2005.
Ca cau thu nhap cua hp ndng dan, theo mffc chi phi t h a p nay khdng dap ffng dffge
vung, dffge the hien trong bieu dd 2. Hinh 2 lgi ich cua ngffdi thffc hien nen chffa tao
cho thay, trong ca cau thu nhap,ngu6n thu tff dpng Iffc khuyen khich cac dan vi, hg gia
nhiing boat dpng ndng nghiep chiem ty trgng dinh trong viec trdng, cham sdc va bao ve
cao gap nhieu lan so vdi thu nhap tff hoat rffng. Theo ICRAF (2007) va Thuan
dpng trong, cham sdc va khai thac ritog. (2005), mpt trong nhffng nguyen n h a n
Trong chffong trinh 327 va trdng 5 can trd t h a n h cdng cua cac chffong trinh
trieu ha rffng, mffc phi da dffge an dinh 5 phat trien rffng Viet Nam la thieu nhffng
trieu ddng Iha rffng trdng mdi va 50.000 nghien cffu sau ve cac n h a n to' tac dgng
ddng cho cdng cham sdc, bao ve Iha rffng; den nan pha rffng.
E Q QUAN LY KINH TE So 35 (8+9/2010)
- TiNH TRANG P H A R U M G 0 VIET NAM: NHAN TO T A C DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI NGHIEN CUU - TRAO DOI [TOI
B i e u do 2. Cd c a u ty trong thu n h a p c u a ho n o n g d a n , p h a n t h e o viing, 2003
150%
100% -
50%
0%
Whole North North Red river North South Central North east Mekong
country West East delta central central highlands South river delta
coast coast
n Fisheries Forestry Agriculture
Nguon: Tinh toan cua tac gia dffa tren sd lieu cua De Jong, W., Sam, D. and Hung, V., 2006.
3. Tinh hinh, m u c t i e u va k e t qua tdc dang sinh sd'ng d vung nui cao, cd tap
n g h i e n eiJu ve n a n pha rvtng quan du canh du cff. (Dang 2001,
3.1. Khdi quat tinh hinh nghien McDovv^ell 1989).
cUu. Ngoai ra, viec khai thac gd khdng hpp
Cd nhieu nguyen n h a n dffge de cap phap cung la mpt trong nhffng nguyen
trong nhffng nghien cffu ve pha rffng d nhan dan den can kiet tai nguyen rffng
Viet Nam. Quy (1985) va Bouny (2006) (Dang et al. 2001, ADB 2000, De Koninck
cho rang, thdi gian trffde n a m 1975, phan 1999, Werger and Nghia 2005); WB
ldn dien tich rffng mat di do bom dan ciia (2005). Theo ffdc tinh, hang nam, so' gd
cac cuoc chien tranh chdng xam Iffgc, ffdc khai khac bat hpp phap d Viet Nam
tinh ban 2 trieu ha. Tuy nhien, cac tac khoang tff 0,5 den 2 trieu m3 cac loai, ke
gia lai chffa dffa ra each tinh toan cu the ca gd thupc rffng dac dung.
de di den nhffng ket luan nay. Nhffng nghien cffu gan day cua ICRAF
Sau nam 1975, De Koninck (1999), (2007), Sunderlin, Ba (2005), Morris va
ADB (2000), Dang va cong sff (2001) deu Ingles (2003), deu n h a n m a n h t a m quan
chung quan diem ve tac ddng cua sffe ep trpng cua xda ddi, giam ngheo va trinh dp
dan sd dSn den nan pha rffng. Nhu cau dan tri. Cac tac gia cho rang, ti le mu chff
dan sd gia tang nhanh, da dSn den dien cao va ngffdi ngheo tap trung d khu vffc
tich dat can chuyen ddi tff dat rffng sang Tay Nguyen va mien nui phia Bac, lien
trdng cay Iffgng thffc va bai chan tha gia quan chat che den ti le pha rffng cao d
sue ngay cang ldn. Mat khac, tap quan du khu vffc nay. Mac du da dffa ra nhieu
canh, du cff trong cdng ddng cac dan tdc nhan dinh, song hau hdt cac nghien cffu
it ngffdi cung la nguyen nhan quan trpng ve nan pha rffng Viet Nam mdi tap trung
lam tang nhanh nan pha rffng. Den nay, vao phan tich dinh tinh, thie'u nhffng
cdn khoang 1,4 trieu ngufdi thupc cac dan nghien cffu dinh Iffpng ve van de nay.
So 35 (8+9/2010)
QUAN LY KINH TE
- MJ^NGHIEN CIJU - TRAO DOI TlNH TRANG PHA RLTNG 0 VIET NAM: N H A N TO T A C OONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
3.2. Muc tieu vd ket cau nghien citu log(Deforestation.) = |3„ + ^^Popgrowth.
Muc tieu nghien cffu trong bai viet + p2 logiAGRILAND.) + p , \og(WOODUSE.)
nham vao xac dinh mang tinh dinh Iffgng +^^Educ. + ^^Poverate. + ^^KINH.
nhan td tac dgng den tinh trang m a t -h P 7 CHland. + P ^ NMland. + w, (1)
rffng, tren cO sd dd de xuat nhffng chinh
sach va bien phap quan ly thich hgp. Tff 6 day, chi sd i the hien tinh i trong sd
danh gia tdm t a t nhffng nghien cffu lien 59 tinh cd dff lieu quan sat.
quan den nan pha rffng; nghien cffu se sff - Bien phu thupc la log(Deforestation)
dung md hinh kinh te Iffgng de phan tich chi dien tich rffng tff nhien m a t di d mdi
cac nhan td anh hffdng; Theo dd, phffOng dia phffong trong nam 2003, tinh bang
phap hdi quy tuyen tinh (OLS) dffge dung ha.
de ffdc tinh tac dgng cua sffe ep dan sd,
- Popgrowth la td'c dp tang dan sd giai
nhu cau phat trien trdng trgt; tieu thu gd;
doan 2002-2003, tinh bang % theo cdng
tinh trang ddi ngheo va cac yeu td dia ly
thffc (Popgrowth = Tdng dan sd nam 2003
tac dgng den pha rffng. Sau cung, dffa ra
- Tdng dan sd nam 2002)/Tdng dan sd
ket qua ffdc Iffgng dffa t r e n sd lieu thffc te
nam 2002)
va phan tich nhffng cP che dSn den n a n
- AGRILANB thay ddi dien tich dat
pha rffng. Tren nen tang dd, tac gia de
ndng nghiep trong giai doan 2002-2003,
xuat mot sd giai phap va chinh sach cd
tinh bang dien tich dat ndng nghiep nam
lien quan.
2003 trff di dien tich nam 2002.
3.3. PhUotng phdp luan vd kit qua
- WOOBUSE sff thay ddi ve nhu cau
nghien cvCu
sff dung gd n a m 2002 va 2003 cua tffng
3.3.1. Vi du lieu tinh quan sat (do bang m3).
Trong phan tich tinh trang pha rffng d - Educ ti le dan sd da tdt nghiep THCS
nhffng nffdc dang phat trien, hau het cac tren tdng dan sd tffng tinh nam 2003 (%).
nghien cffu deu sff dung dff lieu bang.
- Poverate: Ti le ddi ngheo (%) nam
Dasgupta va cgng sff (2005) cho rSng, dff
2003 d tffng tinh quan sat.
lieu phu hgp va cd the tim dffge dd'i vdi
Viet Nam cd the la dff lieu d cap tinh. Do - KINH ti trpng dan tdc Kinh trong
thieu chudi sd lieu theo thdi gian lien tdng sd dan cua tffng tinh nam 1999 (theo
quan, nghien cffu nay da sff dung dff lieu Tdng dieu tra Dan so').
cheo (cross-section data) ciia 59 tinh, - CHland and NMland cac gia bien, the
thanh phd' trong giai doan 2002 - 2003 va hien tam quan trpng cua vi tri dia ly thupc
tff nien giam tho'ng ke hang nam cua khu vffc Tay Nguyen hay m i i n nui phia
Tdng cue Thdng ke (GSO), la nhffng Bac (Bien CHland nhan gia tri mpt (1) neu
ngudn dff lieu dffge cap n h a t gan n h a t . tinh/thanh phd dd thupc khu vffc Tay
3.3.2. Mo hinh kinh te lUgng phan tich Nguyen va cdn lai nhan gia tri 0. Tffpng
nhdn to tdc dgng tff, bien NMland nhan gia tri mpt (1) neu
tinh/thanh phd dd thugc khu vffc mien nui
Trong nghien cffu, cac nha phan tich
phia Bac va cdn lai nhan gia tri 0)
sff dung md hinh do Allen va Barnes
(1985) de xuat vdi nhffng thay ddi phu - Ui la sd hang sai sd.
hpp vdi dieu kien Viet Nam. Md hinh Cac bidn DEFORESTATION, AGRI-
danh gia cac nhan to' anh hffdng den n a n LAND and WOODUSE deu lay gia tri log-
pha rffng dffpc the hien theo mdi tffPng arit, the hien sff thay di yet dd'i trong
quan (1) cac bien hPn la thay dd: ng ddi.
E Q QUAN LY KINH TE 86 35(8+9/2010)
- TlNH TRANG PHA RUNG 0 VIET NAM: NHAN TO TAC DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGH|
NGHIEN Cini - T A 001
RO {^\
Phan mem Stata 9 dffge sff dung de ffdc de thffc h i e n h d i quy tuye'n t i n h (OLS)
Iffgng md hinh trong nghien cffu. do'i vdi C sd dff lieu thu t h a p . Ke't
O
3.3.3. Ket qua Ude lugng qua ffdc Iffgng dffge t h e h i e n t r o n g
P h a n m e m STATA 9 dffge sff dung B a n g 2.
Bang 2. Mo hinh nhan to' tac dpng den nan pha rOfng o Vi^t Nam
f
(8 bien giai thich va ket qua sau khi da hieu chinh phuong sai thay ddi)
InDEF Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]
POPGROWTH 0.10640 0.02908 3.660 0.0010 0.04799 0.16482
InAGRILAND 0.27635 0.07652 3.610 0.0010 0.12266 0.43004
InWOODUSE 0.28971 0.05908 4.900 0.0000 0.17105 0.40837
EDUC -0.00981 0.00390 -2.520 0.0150 -0.01764 -0.00199
POVRATE 0.01567 0.00732 2.140 0.0370 0.00096 0.03037
KINH -0.00337 0.00383 -0.880 0.3830 -0.01105 0.00432
CHland 0.42407 0.25580 1.660 0.1040 -0.08972 0.93786
NMland 0.17856 0.24442 0.730 0.4680 -0.31237 0.66949
_cons 4.13060 0.56197 7.350 0.0000 3.00186 5.25934
F( 8, 50) = 29.07
Prob > F = 0.0000
R-squared = 0.7611
Nguon: Tinh toan Ude lugng bang STATA 9.
Phan tich ke't qua tff bang 2 cho thay, loai trff de tim ffdc Iffgng tdt n h a t cho md
trong md hinh ffdc Iffgng, ba bien KINH, hinh; ket qua sau cung dffge trinh bay
Chland and NMland khdng cd y nghia trong Bang 3.
thdng ke d mffc 10%. Kiem dinh F-test
Bang 3 cho thay, t a t ca cac he so' cua
theo nghia thdng ke chung cho ca 3 bien
de xem xet cd nen dffa ca 3 bien nay vao bien giai thich deu nhff mong dgi. Td'c do
giai thich md hinh hay khdng?. Ke't qua tang dan so', dien tich dat ndng nghiep,
cho thay, F-statistic rat thap (=2.07) va nhu cau sff dung gd, trinh dp dan tri va
gia tri xac suat ldn ban 10%. Dieu nay ty le ddi ngheo cd y nghia thdng ke d mffc
ehffng td khdng nen bd ca 3 bien nay ra 1%. Rieng he sd Chland and NMland cd y
khdi md hinh. Bang phffong phap thff va nghia thdng ke d mffc 10%.
So 35 (8+9/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE [ Q
- |l|:^|'j|jj NGHIEN Cliu - TRAO DO! TiNH TRANG PHA RUNG d VIET NAM: N H A N TO T A C DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
B a n g 3. Ke't qua lidc lifgtng c a c n h a n to t a c dpng d e n p h a r ^ n g d Vi^t N a m
(Sau khi da hieu chinh phuong sai thay ddi trong mo hinh)
InDEF Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]
POPGROWTH 0.1127284 (*) 0.02824 3.990 0.0000 0.05604 0.16942
InAGRILAND 0.2764607 (*) 0.07455 3.710 0.0010 0.12680 0.42612
InWOODUSE 0.2849469 (*) 0.05926 4.810 ' 0.0000 0.16597 0.40392
EDUC -0.0107096 (*) 0.00368 -2.910 0.0050 -0.01809 -0.00332
POVRATE 0.0186094(*) 0.00642 2.900 0.0050 0.00573 0.03149
CHland 0.4802667(**) 0.25361 1.890 0.0640 -0.02887 0.98940
NMland 0.3198709(**) 0.16487 1.940 0.0580 -0.01112 0.65086
_cons 3.83961(*) 0.48400 7.930 0.0000 2.86794 4.81128
F( 7, 51) — 32.84
Prob > F = 0
R-squared = 0.7576
Chii thich: (*): co y nghia tho'ng ke d mffc 1%; (**): C y nghia tho'ng ke d mffc 10%.
O
Nguon: Ude lugng bang STATA 9.
4. B i n h l u a n v e k e t q u a n g h i e n ciJu Viet N a m .
Thu' h a i , h e so' ffdc t i n h cua cac b i e n
4.1. Nhdn xet chung
W O O D U S E v a A G R I L A N D tffong ffng la
Trffde h e t , loai trff b i e n so' du c a n h du 0.285, 0.2765. T h e o dd, k h i n h u cau ve gd
cff, dffge xac d i n h b a n g ty le ngffdi K i n h va d a t cho s a n x u a t n d n g n g h i e p t a n g l e n
t r o n g t d n g d a n sd cua t i n h / t h a n h p h d ; 1% deu dSn d e n d i e n tich rffng bi m a t di
b a y t r o n g t a m b i e n so' giai t h i c h deu cd tffpng ffng la 0.285% v a 0.2765%.
a n h hffdng d a n g ke d e n td'c do m a t rffng. N g h i e n cffu k h a n g d i n h t a c d p n g d a n g
K e t qua ve a n h hffdng cua du c a n h du cff ke cua gia t a n g d a n so' l e n n a n p h a rffng
tffong tff nhff k e t l u a n cua De K o n i n c k (Pi =0.113). T h e o D a n g va cong sff (2001),
(1999), Fox .(2000) va L a n g (2001). Tuy tff n a m 1960 d e n n a y , cff sau 25 n a m , d a n
n h i e n , l a i cd sff k h a c b i e t so vdi n g h i e n sd V i e t N a m l a i t a n g g a p ddi so vdi t h d i
cffu cua D a n g (2001). D d n g b a o d a n tgc k y trffde dd.
t h i e u sd chiem ty le k h d n g n h i e u t r o n g Thff tff, t r i n h dp d a n t r i cao, ( t h e h i e n
t d n g sd d a n cff, chffong t r i n h d i n h c a n h qua t i le ngffdi b i e t dpc) cd t h e g i a m n a n
d i n h cff t r i e n k h a i t r o n g t h d i gian d a i da p h a rffng. Ngffpc l a i , ti le ddi n g h e o cao
k e t h p p dffpc vdi sff d u n g ky t h u a t c a n h lai l i e n quan c h a t che vdi gia t a n g p h a
t a c n d n g n g h i e p quy md n h d , cd t h e giai rffng t a i k h u vffc x e m x e t Ti le n g u d i b i e t
t h i c h ve nhffng t a c dpng b a n che cua yeu dpc t a n g 1%, ti le rffng ' ' h a t p h a g i a m
t d du c a n h du cff d e n v a n de p h a rffng d 1,1%; cdn ti le ddi nghe n g l e n 1% da
I Q QUAN LY KINH TE 8635(8+9/2010)
- TiNH TRANG PHA R(MG 6 VI£T NAM: NHAN TO TAC BONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGH!
NGHIEN ClilU - TRAO 001 y j j ; / l i <
lam ti le m a t rffng tang them 1,8%. 4.2. Tdc dong gia tang nhu cdu sdn
Cud'i cung, ty le rffng hi chat pha d pham riing doi v&i nan chat phd rUng
khu vffc nui cao va Tay Nguyen deu cd Nhu cau ve san pham rffng (bao gdm ca
xu hffdng gia tang. Dieu nay ddi hdi gd va san pham khac ngoai gd) ngay cang
Chinh phu Viet Nam phai quan t a m va gia tang thdng qua nhffng kenh khac
can dffa yeu to' dia ly vao xay dffng chinh nhau. Tac dgng nhu cau gia t a n g san
sach trong p h a t t r i e n n g a n h l a m pham gd dd'i vdi n a n pha rffng dffge md ta
nghiep. trong bieu dd 3.
Bieu do 3. Tac dpng n h u cau gia tang ve san pham g6
do'i vdi n a n chat pha rvfng
Nhu cau lam G5 sff dung cho cac Thffc hien luat Khai thac go
chat ddt muc dich thuang mai phap kem trai phep
1 ' 1 1' ir
Xay dffng dffdng de
1
1
van chuyen g5 da Mat dat rijfng
khai thac ra diem (Chat pha riTng)
Tren 70% dan sd Viet Nam sdng d khu dffge phep khai thac tff 3,5 trieu m3
vffc ndng thdn; gd cui (ngudn nhien lieu xudng cdn 0,3 trieu m3/nam, song Iffgng
chu yeu cung cap nang Iffgng cho cff dan go khai thac trai phep lai la van de dang
d khu vffc nay) se gia tang ldn trong thdi bao ddng (Sunderlin and Ba 2005). Ude
gian trffde mat, dffge dff bao len khoang tinh, vdi Iffgng gd khai thac trai phep
22-23 trieu t a n gd cac loai mdi nam hang nam tff 0,5 den 2 trieu m3,khoang
(Dang et al.2001). 30 ngan ha rffng bi pha buy trong nhffng
t h a p ky qua (Werger and Nghia 2005).
Cham sdc, chat tia cay rffng la viec Hau qua khai thac rffng qua mffc khien
lam can thiet trong quy trinh cham sdc; Viet Nam da vffgt qua mffc khai thac rffng
tuy nhien, viec lam dung khai thac se ben vffng ehffng 70% (WB 2005).
d i n den rffng hi t a n pha. Them vao dd,
Sunderlin and Ba (2005) da neu ra mot
rffng cdn bi m a t di do cay edi bi ddn chat
so' nguyen n h a n cua tinh t r a n g gia t a n g
de md ldi va xay dffng dffdng dffa gd khai
khai thac gd trai phep. Dd chinh la viec
thac ra nhffng khu vffc van chuyen tiep
d i dang trang bi cdng cu khai thac gd quy
theo (Grafton 2008).
md nhd; de dang van chuyen, sff dung.
Dac biet, viec khai thac gd trai phep Mat khac viec md cac tuyen dffdng giao
dang dien ra d nhieu nai khi che tai phap thdng cung da giup cho viec tiep can va
luat chffa du manh. O Viet Nam, nhffng van chuyen de dang Iffgng gd khai thac,
nd Iffc cua Chinh phu da giam Iffgng gd cung nhff sff tham gia cua cff dan dia
So 35 (8+9/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE ^
- I'jrjl'llj^ NGHIEN OIJU - TRAO 001 TlNH TRANG PHA RdNG 0 VIET NAM: NHAN TO TAC DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
phffong vao viec khai thac gd trai phep de Tai nhffng vung khao sat, tdi 70% thu
true lgi. nhap cua cac hg gia dinh la tff boat ddng
4.3. Chuyen ddi dat riing sang cdc san xuat chan nudi va trdng trgt (Thuan
muc dich nong nghiep khac 2005). (5 khu vffc Tay Nguyen, rffng hi
chat pha chu yeu de chuyen ddi sang
Viec chuyen ddi dat trdng rffng sang
trdng cay cd gia tri kinh te cao nhff dieu,
dat dung vao cac muc dich ndng nghiep
ca phe, cao su. Tffong tff, d vung ven bien
khac can dffge xem xet ca tff phia ngffdi
nhieu khu rffng ngap m a n da hi chat pha
dan/hd gia dinh l i n Chinh phu.
de khai thac, nudi tdm va nudi trdng thuy
Trong lam nghiep, cay rffng cd thdi san khac (GoVN 1994, Nhat 2001 ,Werger
gian sinh trffdng va phat trien keo dai and Nghia 2005:38). Nhffng boat dgng
nhieu nam, ke tff khi trdng cay gid'ng cho san xuat theo hffdng nay da mang lai lgi
den luc cd the khai thac, thu hoach. Do nhuan cao han r a t nhieu so vdi cham sdc
vay, quay vdng khai thac rffng la van de va bao ve rffng. Vi vay, nhieu hg ndng
can dac biet quan tam trong quan ly rffng dan da chuyen ddi muc dich sff dung dat
(Grafton 2008). Rffng se mat di khi tren rffng sang nhffng hoat ddng chan nudi,
dat khdng cdn gieo trdng hoac khdng cd trdng trpt cac loai cay trdng vat nudi
rffng tai sinh sau khi da chat ha. Mat khac.
rffng cd the dffpc xem la quay vdng khai
thac rffng chi vdi duy n h a t 1 chu ky. (j cap dp qudc gia: Quyet dinh cua
Chinh phu trong chuyen ddi muc dich dat
O cap dp hd gia dinh: Giffa bao ve rffng rffng can phai tinh den nhffng lgi ich hay
hay chuyen sang cac muc dich khac la sff thiet hai ve mdi trffdng khi dd'n ha cac
Iffa chgn tren cp sd so sanh hieu qua kinh
loai cay rffng, dd la phan gia tri thff ba
te giffa 2 muc dich sff dung (Pfaff 1999).
trong gia tri rdng cua san xuat lam
Theo Grafton 2008, gia tri rdng cua san
nghiep,dffge xac dinh bang bieu thffc 3.
xuat lam nghiep, gdm Ipi ich cua ca san
pham gd va san pham khac tff rffng
khdng phai la gd (NTFP), dffpc the hien V{T) = p* fiTU)* e-'' +\(N{t-'A) *e-"dt
bang bieu thffc (2):
+ \E{T-A) *e-P'dt (3)
V(T) = p * f(T; A) * e-" + \(N(t\ A) *e-'"dt (2)
0
Mat rffng gia tang nhieu nam qua ehffng
Trong dd: jD Id gid tri rong cua 1 ddn vi td, Chinh phu chffa thanh cdng trong viec
gd (m^), gT= f(T; A) vd N(t;A) khoi lugng dffa lgi ich mdi trffdng vao qua trinh xay
ddu ra tffOng ffng cua san pham gd va dffng cac chinh sach phat trien lam
NTFP. Gia tri rdng dffge tinh chiet khau nghiep. Dau thap nien 1990, Chinh phu
vdi he so' theo thdi gian la p. Gia tri dau khuyen khich phat trien cay ca phe trong
tien trong bieu thffc la lgi ich tff san bdi canh gia ca phe the gidi dang len cao.
pham gb, gia tri thff hai la lgi ich tff san Trong thdi gian 1990-2000, dien tich trdng
pham khdng phai la gd (NTFP). ca phe tang hang nam 20,7% va Viet Nam
Trdng trgt va chan nudi gia sue, gia da trd thanh nffdc xuat khau ca phe ldn
cam cd the thu hoach nhieu lan trong thff hai tren the gidi sau Brazil (Que et al.
nam va nhd dd, mang lai cho hd gia dinh 2004: 2). Tai tinh Dak Lak, trung binh
ngudn thu lien tuc, vdi chi phi giao dich hang nam khoang 27.140 ha dat rffng tff
thap va san pham d§ dang tieu thu tren nhien mat di de trdng c e. Tuy nhien,
thi trffdng so vdi san xuat lam nghiep. nam 2003, khi ca phe rai 1, nhieu ngu'di
^ QUAN LY KINH TE So 35 (8+9/2010)
- I'l!liI5ANG_PHAR^ d VIET NAM: NHAN TO TAC DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI NGHIEN ClJfO - TRAO 001 \^i I i^
da pha bd ca phe de canh tac loai cay ngffdng ngheo va ehffng 9 trieu ngffdi v i n
trdng khac. Sd ddng hp ndng dan d ngffdng cdn trong tinh t r a n g thieu an vao nhffng
can ngheo (vffa thoat khdi mffc ddi ngheo nam giffa t h a p nien 2010 (Sunderlin and
theo chuan cua Viet Nam) lai rai vao bay Ba 2005). Dac biet, nhffng khu vffc cd ty
ddi ngheo (Thuan 2005). le ddi ngheo cao lai thffdng rai vao nhffng
4.4. Trinh do ddn tri, site ep ddn vung cd dien tich rffng tap trung nhff Tay
sd, doi ngheo vd viec mdt riing Nguyen va mien nui phia Bac (Thuan
Ngan hang The gidi (WB 2004) danh 2005, ICRAF 2007). Day cung la mdi
gia cao no Iffc va t h a n h tffu xda ddi giam quan ngai ve gia tang kha n a n g pha
ngheo ciia Viet Nam trong hai t h a p ky rffng, bdi t r e n 85% dien tich rffng can
qua. Tuy nhien, ddi ngheo vSn la van de bao ve lai n a m trong vung cd ty le ddi
nan giai khi 23 trieu ngffdi v i n d dffdi ngheo cao (WB 2005). (Xem ban dd 1).
Ban do 1. Ti le doi ngheo (a), 2008 va ti le rijfng che phii d Viet Nam (b), 1996
^ ^
incidence of Poverty •v
(percentage of people below
poverty line)
I 0-10 tm Forest ^ ^ « *
I 10-20
I 20-30
i 30-40
' 40-50
50-60 100 0 100 Kiiometers '^^ ^Sf'
I 60-70
I 70-80
I 80-90
,v
;
I 90-100 - • i ^^KT-
1 •£'
(a) (b)
Nguon: Sunderlin, W. and Ba, H., 2005.
Tai cac vung nui, vung sau vung xa; trdng trpt, chan nudi cay, con khae cd lgi
ddi ngheo thffdng di cung trinh do dan tri nhuan cao hPn. Trinh dp dan tri t h a p nen
thap. Yeu td nhan khau hgc va nhan td da so' ndng dan khd tiep thu, van dung
khac tac dpng den chat pha rffng cung dffpc nhffng tien bg ky thuat cho nang
d i l n ra theo nhieu each khac nhau. Trffde suat cao vao san xuat. Ngffdi trdng rffng
het, do boat dpng lam nghiep mang lai thieu nhffng kien thffc can thiet ve cay
Ipi nhuan thap khien ngudi dan, hp gia gidng va cham sdc, phat trien rffng. Han
dinh cd nhu cau chuyen ddi dat rffng sang the nffa, hg cd rat it kha nang tiep can
So 35 (8+9/2010)
QUAN LY KINH TE ^
- troi NGHIEN cuu - TRAO 001 TlNH TRANG PHA ROlMG d VIET NAM: N H A N TO TAC DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGH|
marketing va thdng tin thi trffdng; d the 5. M^t so gdi y c h i n h s a c h
yeu ve kha nang thffpng Iffgng tren thi
Dffdi day, xin de cap den mpt sd giai
trffdng san pham lam nghiep ( Sunderlin,
phap nham b a n che n a n pha rffng:
Ba 2005; Thuan 2005).
5.1. Xay dUng ca che qudn ly rUng
Trong cac vung nghien cffu, ti le chi
CO sU tham gia cua cgng ddng ,
phi tren doanh thu tff cac boat dgng san
Hinh thffc quan ly t a i nguyen thien
xuat lam nghiep la 105 trong nhdm ngffdi
nhien (bao gdm ca rffng) dffa vao cdng
ngheo la qua cao so vdi ti le 65 cua nhdm
ddng la each quan ly hieu qua thay vi
hg giau, hd kha (Thuan 2005). Nhffng hp
viec quan ly giao cho cac ndng, lam
dan trinh dp thap, vdi nang suat va Ipi
trffdng hoac hp gia dinh. Hinh thffc nay
nhuan cung r a t t h a p tff hoat dgng lam
dffdng nhff la each quan ly ben vffng hau
nghiep, dang cd nhu cau chuyen ddi sang
het cac ngudn t a i nguyen hien nhien d
cac boat ddng chan nudi trdng trpt cay,
nhieu qud'c gia dang phat trien hien nay
con khac cd Ipi nhuan cao ban.
(Thuan 2005). Viec ap dung hinh thffc
Thff hai, dien tich dat rffng giam m a n h quan ly dffa vao cdng ddng mang lai
do di cff va sffe ep gia tang dan so' (Dang nhffng lgi ich cd t h e thay dffge, dd la:
et al. 2001). Trong giai doan 1975-1995,
- Sff tham gia va chia se mdi quan tam,
thffc hien chinh sach cua nha nffdc, gan
lgi ich eua cae t h a n h vien trong cdng
650.000 ngffdi di xay dffng vung kinh te
ddng trong sud't qua trinh tff lap ke hoach
mdi va so' di cff tff do den Tay Nguyen
den trien khai thffc hien. Dieu nay se
cung len tdi ehffng V2 con so' tren day.
giup cai thien tinh t r a n g b a t binh dang
Ngoai dien tich rffng hi chat pha de tang
va hd trg giam ngheo dd'i vdi cdng ddng
dien tich canh tac ndng nghiep, cdn mpt
va tffng t h a n h vien.
Iffpng r a t ldn dat rffng dffge dung vao xay
dffng nha cffa, khu dan cff va phuc vu sinh - Giam chi phi giao dich va khuyen
boat hang ngay cua nhdm dan cff mdi khich dau tff tff n h a n vao khu vffc lam
den. nghiep.
- Bao ve va giam dffpc n a n khai thac
Ehrhardt-Martinez (1998) tffng chi ra,
gd lau tff rffng can bao ve.
tai cac nffdc dang phat trien, nhffng t h a t
bai trong the che nhff tham nhung, sff 5.2. Tdng ciidng viec xay diing, diia
phffc tap va khdng rd rang trong cac quy xoa doi giam ngheo vdo cdc chiiamg
dinh phap luat va budng long quan ly n h a trinh vd chinh sdch cda nganh lam
nffdc da lam giam tac ddng tich cffc cua nghiep.
nhffng nd Iffc giam ngheo va cang lam Trffde het, muc tieu xda ddi, giam
cho tinh trang m a t rffng gia tang d khu ngheo t a i nhffng khu vffc cd rffng, dac biet
vffc ndng thdn. O Viet Nam, ben canh sff la d Tay Nguyen va vung nui cao, can
thieu minh bach, phffc t a p trong cac quy dffpc dffa trffc tiep vao muc tieu dinh
dinh phap luat, viec van dung, giai thich hffdng cua cac chinh sach va chffPng trinh
chffa dung cac quy dinh va trinh dp dan phat trien lam nghiep.
tri thap cang khien van n a n khai thae gd Thff hai, Chinh phu can quan t a m ban
trai phep cang them t r a m trpng (ICRAF den an ninh Iffffng thffc va tao sinh ke
2007). Tdm lai, ddi ngheo da day ngffdi ben vffng cho cff dan sd'ng phu thudc vao
ndng dan ngheo tham gia vao pha rffng rffng, nhat la nhffng ngffdi sd'ng d vung
de cd thu nhap va dam bao Iffpng thffc cho ddi nui dd'c. Do ti trgn u n h a p tff s a n
gia dinh. pham khdng phai la (NTFP) trong
QUAN L KINH T
Y E 80 35(8+9/2010)
- TiNH TRANG PHA RUNG 6 VIET NAM: N H A N TO TAC DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI NGHIEN Clio - TRAO 001 | ^ I H
tdng thu nhap dang giam manh; ngoai nhffng nguyen n h a n n a n chat pha rffng.
giai phap nang cao thu nhap tff ngudn Bang phan tich dff lieu lien quan den
nay cung can nhan manh den da dang rffng cua 59 tinh, t h a n h phd thdi gian
hda ngudn thu tff cac boat ddng ndng 2002-2003, vdi ky thuat phan tich kinh te
nghiep va phi ndng nghiep cua hd ndng Iffgng bang OLS, nghien cffu da chi ra
dan (Thuan 2005). nguyen n h a n chu yeu d i n den n a n chat
Nham giup hp ngheo, ngffdi ngheo d pha rffng nghiem trgng va rut ra mdt sd
khu vffc ndng thdn dl dang tiep can vdi giai phap ca ban cho van de nay. Tff ket
ngudn vdn cho phat trien lam nghiep va qua phan tich, cac giai phap gpi ra da tap
ndng nghiep, Chinh phu can thiet ke mot trung vao quan ly rffng dffa vao cdng
chffPng trinh tin dung hffdng den nhffng ddng; tang cffdng cac nd Iffc giam ngheo
dd'i tffpng nay. va cai thien chat Iffpng xay dffng, lap ke
5.3. Cai thien chat lugng lap ke hoach hoach va giam sat.
vd gidm sdt hffdng vao khuyen khich sff Mac du dat dffge nhffng ket qua dang
tham gia cua cdng ddng trong sudt qua quan tam, song viec nghien cffu v i n cdn
trinh xay dffng, thffc hien va giam sat nhffng h a n che. Trffde het, dd la thieu
nhffng ke hoach phat trien. Theo dd, can danh gia anh hffdng cua quyen sd hffu va
khai thac kien thffc, sff hieu biet cua cff viec khai thac gd lau; nhffng ndi dung giff
dan dia phffong trong viec lap ke hoach, vai trd quan trpng trong phat trien nganh
xac dinh nhu cau va xay dffng ca che lam nghiep chffa cd tai lieu hoac sd lieu
giam sat phff hpp vdi sff tham gia eua dieu tra phuc vu; nghien cffu mdi chi tap
cdng ddng tff ca sd. trung vao khai thac dff lieu trong khoang
Cac ca quan tham mffu cua Chinh phu thdi gian rat ngan cua nam 2002-2003.
can nghien cffu va xay dffng dff bao can can dffpc cai thien trong nhffng nghien
trpng ve nhu cau gd va NTFP. Nhffng ket cffu sau ban sau nay ve van n a n chat pha
qua nghien cffu se dinh hffdng cho viec rffng./.
phat trien nganh lam nghiep ca trong
thdi gian trffde mat va tffpng lai xa ban,
nham tranh hien tffgng dff thffa ngudn TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
cung nhff da xay ra ddi vdi phat trien cay . Allen, J. and Barnes, D. (1985), "The causes
ca phe. Deforestation in developing countries".
Annals of the Association of American
Viec sff dung chi sd do che phu rffng Geographers, 75(2):163-84.
khdng bao ham ngi dung chat Iffgng mdi
trffdng can dffge thay the bSng nhffng chi • Asian Development Bank (2000), Study on
the policy and institutional framework for
sd khac (WB 2005). Trong cdng cugc xda
forest resources management, Technical
ddi ngheo, nhffng thay ddi nay se tao ra assessment No 3255-VIE, Vietnam,
ca hpi va nhffng phffPng ke sinh nhai Agriconsulting S.P.A, Hanoi, Vietnam
khac phu hpp cho hd ndng dan va nhffng
• Azomahou, T. and Phu, N. (2007),
ngffdi dang phai sdng phu thupc vao rffng. "Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in envi-
6. Thay Idfi k e t l u a n ronmental quality: an empirical analysis of
deforestation". Journal of Development
Thanh cdng va nhffng b a n che trong Economics, 84: 291-309.
cai thien thu nhap cua hd ndng dan va . Bouny, A. (2006), "Spraying of Agent
chat Iffpng rffng cua cac chuong trinh lam Orange by US Army in Vietnam and its con-
nghiep Viet Nam thdi gian qua cd nguyen sequences", http://www.stopusa.be/scrips/
n h a n tff viec thieu nghien cffu sau ve texte.php (28/3/2008).
$635(8+9/2010)
QUAN LY KINH TE ^
- mzn NGHIEN CUU - TRAO 001 TiNH TRANG PHA RUNG 5 VIET NAM: NHAN TO TAC DONG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
Dang, N. et al. (2001), Forestry in Vietnam Draft) Report of Vietnam-The Netherlands
(1945-2000), development progress and project on Development Economics,
experienced lessons, Agricultural Publishing Hoehiminh City, Vietnam.
House, Hanoi, Vietnam. • McDowell, M. (1989), "Development and the
Dasgupta, S. et al. (2005), 'Where is the Environment in ASEAN", Pacific Affairs, 62
poverty-environment nexus? Evidence from (3): 307-329.
Cambodia, Lao PRD and Vietnam', World • Morris, J. and Ingles, A. (2003), Linking
Development, 32 (4): 617-38. poverty reduction with forest conservation:
De Jong, W., Sam, D. and Hung, V. (2006), A brief review of policies and programs in
Forest rehabilitation in Vietnam: Histories, Vietnam, lUCN, Bangkok, Thailand.
realities and future, Harapa prima, Jakarta, . Pfaff, A. (1999), "What drives deforestation
Indonesia. in the Brazilian Amazon? Evidence from
De Koninck, R. (1999), Deforestation in Satellite and Socioeconomic Data", Journal
Vietnam, International Development of Environmental Economics and
Research Center, Ottawa, Canada. Management, 37(5):26-43.
Ehrhardt-Martinez, K. (1998), "Social deter- • Que, N. et al. (2004), "Assessment of the
minants of deforestation in developing influence of coffee plantations on the
countries: a cross- national study". Social Environment in the Central Highlands",
forces, 77(2): 567-86. Hanoi, Forest science institute of Vietnam
Fox, J. et al. (2005), 'Shifting cultivation: A • Quy, V. (1985), "Rare species and protection
new old paradigm for managing tropical measures proposed for Vietnam", in J.,
forests', Bioscience, 50(6): 521-28. Thorsell (eds). Conserving Asia's Natural
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