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  1. KINH T^ - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU DONG €URO Vfl CUdC KHUNG HORNG NO CONG CHnU RU Ths. Dinh Cong Hoang Tru'dng Dgi hgc Tong hap Coventry - Vwarng quoc Anh 1. Mo-dau tir mgt khu vuc tu do thuong mai, lien minh thuc quan chung, thj truang chung, lien minh Ddng Euro va cupc khiing hodng ng kinh tl lien te, mgt ddng tien ehung (Euro) cdng tai chau Au dang la dc tai ndng nhdt, vd cudi ciing Id mdt lien minh ehinh In cho gay nhieu tranh cdi vd bat ddng giira nhiing lat ca cdc nuac thdnh vien (Song V 2011). nhd lanh dao, hoach djnh kinh le hpc tren the Lien minh Chdu Au thuc sir da di mdt chang gidi: Ddng Euro cd thuc sir dd la su lira chpn dudng ddi trong \ ice xay dung va phat trien khdn ngoan cho cac nuac thdnh vien EU, vd nd cd the tiep tuc ddng vai trd quan trpng de trdr thdnh mdt lien minh ve kinh te, chinh trong nen kinh te tdi ehinh todn edu hay tri nhu hien nay. jr ^ y r khdng? 1. Ly thuyet Khu vice dong tien tdi uu Bai viet ndy se gidi thieu nhimg ea sa Ddu lien, ddng Euro bdt ngudn tir y nen tang chung eua Lien minh Tien te Kinh tudng ve ly thuyet "khu vice dong tien loi te Chau Au (EMU) vd sir ra ddi eua ddng iru ", duge gidi thieu bdri nhd Nobel kinh te, Euro, phdn tich nhCmg lgi ich mang lai cho Robert Mundell vao nam 1961. Lap luan eae nude thanh vien Euro vd ed phdn cdn lai ehung cho rdng, cdc cd nhdn, td chiic vd nha cua the gidi. Cd diem manh vd diem yeu eua nuac se nh^n duge nhieu lgi ieh tir viec chia ddng Euro cQng deu dugc dua ra xem xet. se mgt ddng tien chung dugc chap nhan va Tac gia edn dua ra nhCrng vi du vd nhOng sir dyng or mgi noi md khdng cdn phai nghien eiru vai nhCrng gdc nhin khde nhau chuyen ddi ngoai te khi di du lich, ciing nhu cua cac hpe gid tren the giai. cdc boat dgng xudt nhdp khau (Baldwin va 2. Nhihig C * sdr nen tang ciia dong O Wyplosz, 2009). Ly thuyit "khu vuc ddng Euro lien toi uu " vi the co gdng trd ldi mdt cdu hdi hdc biia Id; "Sd lugrng dong tiin tdi uu dugc Ddng Euro ndi len trong bdi cdnh md sir dung vd luu thdng trong mot khu vuc la loan cdu hda, khu virc hda vd hdi nhdp kinh bao nhieu? " (Horvath vd Komarek, 2002). te da tra thdnh xu the khdng thi thay doi cua lodi ngudri. Trdi qua 40 ndm hdi nhdp khu Tir quan dilm kinh tl hgc, "khu vuc vuc. Lien minh Chdu Au (EU) dd phdt triln ddng tiin tdi im" xdy ra khi chi phi vd lgi
  2. ^Stiq Sui'O^ IHI eud^ Itiiunq hounq,... 13 nhuan chenh lech gap nhau, khi mdt ddng 2. Lien minh Kinh te Tien te Chau Au tien ehung d\iqc sir dung bdi cae nude thanh (EMU) vien. Ndi each khac, viec nhieu ddng tien Ddng Euro lan dau duge dua vao luu duge luu thdng sir dung trong mdt khu vuc thdng nhu la ddng tien chung duy nhat eho mpt mat se mang lai su da dang, nhung mat 11/15 nude thugc Lien minh Chau Au vao khac se gay nen hieu irng sdc bat can xirng ngay 1 thang 1 nam 1999. Su ra ddi eiia nd ddi vdi cae nude thanli vien tham gia ddng thue te bat ngudn tir Hiep ude Masstrict vao tien ehung. Hieu ling sdc nay sinh la do su thang 11 nam 1993 vai su thanh lap ciia Lien khac biet \ c eau true he thdng va cau true minh Kinh te Tien te Chau Au (EMU) (Dinh kinh te xa hdi nhu: he thdng luat phap, su T, 2004). EMU, theo djnh nghTa la he thong khac nliau \e ITnh vuc tai chinh. ngan hang ty gia hdi doai ed dinh dnaz su thda thuan, hay cdng nghiep, cau triic ng cdng, dae diem ddng y giiia cae qudc gia thanh vien trong quan he giiia cdng dodn, doanh nghiep va EU (Sloman vd Hinde, 2007). EMU la giai chinh phii v.v. (Baldwin va Wyplosz, 2009). doan cudi cung eua thi trudng ehung chau Troag bdi canh khung hoang kinh te loan eau Au. Lien minh Chau Au dua vao ba try cdt hien nay, vi du hien nhien nhat dd la nhung chinh: ddng Euro (nay la 17 nudc), thi nudc cd nen kinh te yeu kem se phdi chiu trudng chung, vd he thdng dieu phdi ehinh anh Qudng manh me va sau sac nhat (Hy Lap)... sach ehung. Vai eae y tudng ddng gdp eua nhieu hpe Nam dieu kien de gia nhap EMU la: gia tir thap ky 1960 1970, nham giam bdt Ddng tien eua eae nuac phai duge nam trong he thdng ea ehe ti gia hdi doai cG (ERM) it hieu ling sdc bat can xiing, cd bay dieu kien nhat 2 nam; Miie lam phat thap (khdng vugt da duge dua ra eho mdt khu vuc ddng tien qua 1,5% so vdi mire trung binh eiia 3 nen tdi uu. Bdn dieu kien ehinh ve kinh te bao kinh te ed mure lam phat thap nhat chau Au); gdm: Yeu td di chuyen ve vdn, sure lao ddng Lai sudt ddi ban (khdng vugt qua 2% so vai va ehu trinh kinh doanh (Mundell, 1961); miie trung binh cua 3 nen kinh te ed miic lai Miie dp ma cira eua nen kinh te (McKirmon, sudt thdp nhdt chdu Au); Tham hyt ngdn sdch 1963); vd Da dang hda san phdm hang hda thdp (duai 3% tdng thu nhdp qudc dan GDP); (Kenen, 1969). Ba dilu kien ve ehinh tri Id: vd Miic ng cdng (dudi 60% tdng thu nhdp Chil nghTa lien bang vl tiln te (Kenen, 1969); quoc dan GDP) (Weerapan, 2004). Hpi nhdp ehinh sdch (Ingram, 1969), Haberler (1970), vd Tower Wilier (1970); vd Khi EMU duge thdnh lap, ciing vai eae Miie dp tuong ddng vl lam phdt (Fleming, Ngdn hdng Trung uong qudc gia cae nuac 1971), (Song, 2011). thdnh vien, mpt Ngdn hdng Trung uong
  3. 14 NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°l 2 (135).2011 Chau Au mdi, gpi tdt la I-.CB, sS thay mdt minh Chau Au dd giup ndng cao vi the tdi eac nirdc lhanh vic*n, cd nhiem vu dieu phoi chinh va chinh tri ciia ddng lien ndy trong thi eac chinh sach ticn tc ehung ciia khu vue. trudfng tai chinh quoc te. Tdc gid Mundell Mue tieu dau ticn cua FCB la binh on gia ca: (2000) nhan xet rdng sau khi dong Euro ra Duy tri mire lam phat dudfi 2% eho ea khu ddi, xu the chii dao ciia nin kinh te the gidi' virc kinh tc dong Euro (Dieu 15). Mpt nhiem dugc dinh hinh bai ba dong tiln ehinh la \'U quan trpng nira la dam bao phat trien kinh ddla (My), Yen (Nhat) vd dong Euro (Lien tc xa hdi \a ti lc that nghiep d mire thap (Dieu 2) (Baldwin va Wyplos/., 2009). Chinh minh Chau Au). sach tai khda va eac ehinh sach khac van C) cdp khu vuc. nhung dieu phdi chinh duge quan ly bai eae qudc gia thdnh vien, sach tiln tp dd cd kcl qua tdt hon cho eac nhung phai tuan theo nhCrng quy tdc ehung nuac thdnh vien. Dieu dd cd nghTa la EMU eiia Khdi (Song V 2011). da dua ra nhCmg ehinh sdch tien te nhdm ket 3. Nhung lgi ich voi cac nudc thanh hgp giCra he thdng ti gid hdi doai linh boat vien Lien minh Chau Au vai ty gid hdi doai ed dinh, dap iing nhanh Mae dil edn tdn tai nhiing bat lgi, vi du nhay vai nhCmg thay ddi cua thi trudng ben nhu quyen tu quyet ve ehinh sdch lien te va ngodi. Mgt Ngdn hdng Trung uong vdi nhieu eae ehinh sach ndi bd khac nhu nhCmg nii ro quyen lyc se hieu qud ban trong viec dat ve hieu iing sdc bat can xiing, sy thay ddi dugc mire hgi nhdp kinh te cao hon cho loan cua cae he thdng tdi khda, hoac tieng ndi yeu Khdi. so vdi h? thdng ERM truac kia the eua eae nen kinh te qui md nhd ban, song nhin todn cue, nhimg lgi ieh van la yeu td (Weerapan, 2004). thiie day cae nuac EU sir dung ddng lien O cdp qudc gia, ddng Euro se giiip thuc ehung Euro. day dn djnh kinh te vT md (bdi miic lam phat Nhin chung nhiing lgi ich cua ddng thap) vd tdng trudng kinh tl bin vimg, cung Euro da mang lai cho cae nuac thdnh vien, nhu ddy manh qud trinh tdi co cdu, tdi cdu dae biet trong thuong mai qudc te. Id khd da tnic, giiip cdc nin kinh te cdc qudc gia thdnh dang: vien boat dgng hieu qud horn trong triln vpng 1. Tir gdc dg dja - chinh tri ddi han (Dinh T., 2004). O cdp todn cdu, viec sir dung ddng tien Q cdp doanh nghiep, he thdng Idi sudt chung Euro bai cdc nuac thdnh vien Lien thdp, cd nghia Id chi phi kinh doanh se thdp
  4. ^&*iq ^ui^ ixiL eude. Itliunq tuMug,... 15 ban, se giiip cho cac doanh nghiep ed the tim de ban che thuang mai. Ngodi ra, nd eGng kiem nhieu ca hdi phat trien tai eae thi giup ngdn chan cae boat dgng mua ban ngoai trudng khac nhau trong Lien minh Chau Au. te eiia gidi dau ea ngan ban. O cdp do cd nhan, du Hch eiing nhu 3. Tir gdc dg kinh doanh va thuang mua sam tieu dung se re ban va de dang ban mgi qudc te eho eae cdng dan EU. Mdt nghien ciiu udc Ve ly thuyet, rat nhieu nha lam chinh tinh, ehi phi da gidm 6,25% eho khach du sach va kinh te hpe cho rang, bang viec sir lieh trong khu vyc ddng Euro (Pareja, Vivero dung ddng EURO, mdt he thdng ty gia hdi vd Serrano, 2007). doai dn djnh s6 thiic day hdi nhap kinh doanh va thuong mai qudc te, giCra eac nuac thanh 2. Tir gdc dg tai chinh: Cd mdt sd lgi vien trong khu vyc ddng Euro. Dieu nay ieh ea ban nhu: ehiing minh cho gid thiet eua McKirmon Thd nhdt, ddng Euro da mang lai sy rang eae thdnh vien se "mdr ban" vd "giao binli dn ldn ban cho he thdng hdi doai trao djch thuong mai nhieu hon" trong "khu vyc ddi ngoai te khi da loai bd rui ro do nhiing ddng tien tdi uu" Ly do da duge de cap a thay ddi ti gia giCia eac ddng tien cae qudc tren la: Mdt ddng Euro an toan ban khdng gia. Dieu nay giiip gidm thieu rui ro eho eac chi gidm thieu chi phi giao dich, md cdn giiip doani nghiep trong boat ddng ngoai thuong loai bd nhCing nii ro thay ddi ve ti gia giiia trong 'diu vyc ddng Euro. eac ddng tien (Baldwin vd Wyplosz, 2009). Thu hai, ddng Euro loai bd nhu cau Theo cdc ket qud nghien eim khac nhau, chuyen ddi cdc ngoai te giira cdc nuac thdnh miie tdng tir 5% tdi 20% ve thuong mai ndi vien. Viec sir dung mdt ddng tien chung khdi trong Lien minh Chdu Au (so sdnh vdi Euro da tiet kiem 30 ti ddla mdi nam cae nuac khdng phai thdnh vien) da dugc (Portone, 2004), cho chi phi giao dich ehiing minh bdi nhieu hge gid (Nistseh vd chuyen ddi ngoai te khi cac ngdn hang qudc Pisu, 2008). Nghien ciiu gdn day cua nhdm te thudng tinh miic phi tir 1% den 2% cho hgc gid Baldwin, DiNinO, Fontagne, De mdi giao dich khi chuyen ddi tir mdt ngoai te Santis, vd Taglioni (2008) eho Uy ban Chau Au lai tap trung gidi thich ddng Euro da giiip nay sang ngoai te khdc (Weerapan, 2004). tang trudng ve thuong mai nhu the ndo. Hg Cudi cung, ddng Euro mang tai tinh thay rang viec tdng trudng thuang mai ndy ^ minh bach vd tiem can ve gid ed giiia cae chu yeu Id do cd ngdy cdng nhilu hon sd >' nude thdnh vien Lien minh Chdu Au. Khi gid lugng cdc doanh nghiep vd sdn phdm xudt cd sdn phdm vd dich vy trong khu vyc ddng khau duge trao ddi thuang mai giiia cdc Euro tra nen minh bach vd tiem can hon, nuac thdnh vien. Do loai bd duge cdc chi phi chinh phu se it phdi su dung nhCing rao ean ed dinh vd cdc chi phi khdc nen ddng Euro
  5. 16 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12 (135).201 da giiip eho "nhung doanh nghiC'p chua tirng eiia dong Euro vao FDI tai ITnh vyc sdnxuj xuat khau da bat dau tim kiem duge nhirng lan h(m rat nhieu so vai ITnh vyc dich vu, 1 C hpi xuat khau" va "nhirng doanh nghiep O do ed the do eae rao can bao hg dp dat ch Ja xuat kiiau bat dau ma ipng quy md cung nganh djch vy ldn han so vai boat dpng sai nhu danh muc san pham eiia minh ra thi xual. Cudi ciing, eac tdc gid cung cho ran] trudng ben ngoai" ddng Euro dd thue ddy eac boat ddng M&/ (lien kcl vd sdp nhap) bdri ea doanh nghiep e( Mpt sd nghien eiru khac lai cho rang, nen kinh tc eiia cae quoc gia khu vue ddng quy md lan cung nhu vira va nhd (Baldwin Euro thyc sy da duge hpi nhap sau rpng tir DiNino, I'ontagne, De Santis \ a Taglioni trudc khi ddng Euro ra ddi, vi vay s2 ed rat it 2008). tac dpng ciia ddng lien nay vao cac hoat 4. Lgi ich voi cac nu'o'c tren the gioi dpng thuang mai cua cac nude thanh vien Ddng Euro khdng ehi mang lai lgi ich ban dau (Silva va Tenereyro 2010) va mirc cho eae nuac lhanh vien EU ma cac qudc gia tang trudng thuang mai thyc chat chi la sy vd khu vyc khac tren the giai cung dugc tiep ndi xu the phat trien trong dai ban, kit hudng lgi nhieu tir sy ra dai eua nd. qua eiia mdt loat cac ehinh sach hdi nhap kinli te manh me eiia EMU (Berger va Nitsch O muc do quoc lc. sy ra ddri eua ddng 2008). Euro da gidm thieu nii ro \e ngu>' ea ddla hda nen kinh te todn cau, bdri sy phu thupc Ddi vdi cae hinh thirc FDI (ddu tu tryc thai qud \ao dong ddla My va kinh tl My tiep) va M&A (lien kit vd sat nhap), ddng trong giao dich thuang mai \a tai chinh Euro eiing giup hap dan ddu tu tryc tilp va (Dinh T., 2004). Nd giiip da dang hda dy tru md rpng san xuat ea trong ndi Khdi eung ngoai t? cua moi qudc gia (ddla My. Yen nhu ben ngoai Lien minh Chau Au. Vl con Nhat vd Euro), ddng Euro da tra thdnh ddng sd, tac ddng ve FDI bai ddng Euro khdng lien du trir quan trgng \a trong giao dich hoan toan rd rang, nhung hdu hel cac nha thuang mai qudc te ciia nhilu qudc gia tren nghien cuu ddng y nd cd tac ddng lieh eye, va ude doan mire tang tir 15% tai 200% eho the giai. eae ddng dau tu ndi Khdi giira cae nuac (7 muc do khu vuc, ndm or vi tri dia thanh vien, vd mirc tdng tir 7,5%) tai 100%) chinh tri quan trong tren bdn dd thi gidi, eho eac ddng dau tu tir ben ngodi vdo Lien ddng Euro cd tdm dnh hudng lan trong viec minh Chau Au. Dilu dd cd nghTa Id ddng thiic ddy cdc boat dgng thuang mai qudc xk Euro "hdp thy" rdt tdt ddng ddu tu tir ben tai cdc khu vyc nhu: Trung vd Ddng Au ngodi, tuy nhien tdc ddng ndy chi bdng mpt (nhCmg nuoc truac kia sir dung ddng Mark nira so vdi eae ddng dau tu trong ngi khdi Dire), chdu Phi (nhimg nuac chiu dnh hudng giua cac nuac thdnh vien. Ngodi ra, tdc dgng bai ddng Franc Phdp), khu vyc Trung Ddng
  6. ^dnq ^uer^ tm eude Idtuttq hoAtiq... 17 (nhiing nude ed vi tri dia ly vd quan he kinh md thi trudng cua gidi dau ea ngoai te. Thu doanh truyen thdng vai chdu Au) vd chdu A tudng Hy Lap, Tdy Ban Nha va dae biet la (bdi rat nhieu cac boat ddng trao ddi thuong ba A.Markel, Thii tuang Dire eho rdng ehinh mai nhu Dien dan kinh tl A Au ASEM) eae quy vd gi6i dau ea da lgi dung tinhhinh (Dinh T., 2004). vd lam xdu hon cudc khiing hoang ng cdng Vdi eae nuac khde, khu vyc ddng Euro tai Hy Lap vd eae qudc gia khac khi ban vdi dan sd vd thi trudng rdng ldn, sir dung khdng ddng Euro de kiem ldi. Viec ddng mdt ddng tien chung se mang lai nhCmg ea Euro "ddt len" nhu vdy da lam cho san pham hdi kinh doanli cho eae doanh nghiep xudt xuat khau khd canh tranh tren thj trudrng khau tim kiem ea hdi hgp tac cimg phat trien. qudc te, cung nhu thiic day nhap khau hang 5. Dong Euro va cuoc khiing hoang hda vdo ndi dia da lam tang ehi tieu cdng. ng cong chau Au Mat khac, do cac nuac quan ly kinh te yeu kem, chi nhieu hon thu, thieu minh bach, lam 1. Nguyen nhan khiing hoang nff cdng it hudng nhieu, "vung tay qua tran", td hdng Ly do xay ra cudc khiing hodng ng cdng thdi phdng eae bao eao, bien ng xau eua tu tram trpng a chau Au hien nay (tai Hy Lap, nhan thanh ng xdu ciia nhd nude... Bd Dao Nha, Tdy Ban Nha, Ireland, vd Y) la Hieu ling domino ndy dan den viec, dau do ed rat nhieu cac nguyen nhdn, cd ben lien Id cdc doanh nghiep khdng tao ra doanh trong lan ben ngodi, tryc tiep vd gidn tiep, thu vd thanh loan duge eac khodn ng den ban nhung phan ldn deu ed lien quan den ddng (cudc khung hodng 2008 bat ngudn tir khu Euro vd nhiing vdn de eua he thdng tai chinh vyc tu nhan); Sau dd doanh nghiep bat dau ngan hdng eua chau Au. Dau tien la viec eau eiiu ehinh phu, gian ng, dao ng hay mua ECB da dua ra ehinh sdch lai suat thap, dieu lai ng tu nhdn, khi dd ng tu nhan chuyen dd da khuyen khich ede ehinh phu vd doanh thdnh ng cdng, cudi cimg dan den tinh trang nghiep vay tien cdc ngdn hdng mdt each de ng cdng ngdy cdng eao nhu hien nay dang de phyc vu cho cdc boat dpng dau tu, (Vovnews, 2011). san xuat, chi tieu cdng. Dieu ndy cudi eiing se dan din viec chi tieu vugt miic vd ldm Mdt nguyen nhdn xa hon nCia ciia eac '• tang ng cdng. Thii hai, gid tri ddng euro dat khodn ng Id bong bdng tdi chinh duge bdt len tuong doi so vai ddng ddla My bdi it ddu thdi Ien tir giai doan 2000-2007, thdi ki nhdt cd ba ly do: Mdt Id chiln luge ddng nen kinh te todn cau khdi sdc da tao ra mdt •' ddla ylu cua My, hai la ehinh sdch tiln te ngudn thdng du tdi chinh khdng Id (36.000 ti khdng linh boat ciia ECB (dl dat muc tieu ddla ndm 2000 tai 70.000 ti ddla nam 2007). 1 ^ phdt thdp) vd ba Id boat ddng ldm meo Cdc nhd ddu tu vd td chiic bdt ddu tim kilm
  7. 18 NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12 (135).2011 nhung thi trudrng mang lai lgi nhuan cao ban ti L:UR, gan bdng mirc 1.900 ti EUR eua va tao ra nhung bong bdng a pham vi lodn Italy. 1 uy nhien tren thj trudrng tai chinh, khi eau. Khi nhiing bong bdng nay bdt dau no, nhin vdo ng cdng ciia mgt qudc gia, cdu hdi gia tri tai san giam va ganh ndng ng nan quan trgng lai Id ai dang Id chu ng ciia ehung: dirge dat Icn vai doanh nghidp va ehinh phii Ng nuac ngodi hay ng ngudri ddn? Dieu nay Cling \di he thong lai ehinh ngan hang (vdri lam cho bdi loan kha phiie tap va mang den Ireland la bdng bdng thj trudrng bat dgng san, nhu'ng kit qua khde nhau vai cdc nuge np Hy Lap la trai phieu ehinh phii, Iceland la sy cdng tren. N I U cdc ehinh phii nay ng nuac ngodi thap, ng chii yeu do nguai dan nam phat trit^n qua ndng ciia hO thdng ngan giCr thi nhd nuac cd the gidi quyet ng cdng hang...) (CPM, 2011). bdng each dieu ehinh thuc tir nguai dan. Ngoai ra, cae nguyen nhan khac cd the kl den la: loan cau hda tai ehinh ngay cang Tuy nhien, neu ng nuoc ngodi chiem ti sau rpng vd tinh lan tda nhanh, nhirng dieu trgng Idn trong co cdu ng, nguy ca dd va se kien eho vay tin dung dc dang trong giai eao ban rdt nhieu. Vi du nhu Bi vd Y, co doan 2002-2008 eiia eae nudc Eurozone, sy mire ng cdng tren GDP eao ban nhieu so voi mdt can bdng ve thuang mai qudc te, bong Bd Dao Nha, nhung miie phi nii ro ma ho bdng bat ddng sdn hi thdi phdng, tdng trudng phai trd thdp ban nhieu \ i chu yeu ng nguoi cham ciia nen kinh te loan eau, nhiing quyet ddn, Bi thdm chi edn thdng du tdi khoan djnh ehinh sach tdi khda khdng hgp ly trong vdng lai. Ddi vdi Hy Lap, viec quan trgng la thu ehi cua eae qudc gia v.v. cdi td h? thdng ldi chinh va thyc hien ehinh 2. Thirc trgng sdch thdt lung huge bung Id cdn thiet bdi sir yeu kem dd tdn tai sdu rgng trong he thong Mae dil ciing roi vdo nhdm cd nguy co sup dd tai cudc khiing hodng ng cdng chdu qudn ly nhd nuoc vd sy bdt hgp ly trong Au hien nay, nhung Hy Lap, Y, Tdy Ban ehinh sdch qud rgng rdi md nhd nuac ty trao Nha, Bd Ddo Nha hay Ireland lai mang cho khu vyc nhd nuac. Ireland Id mgt vi du nhCrng dae diem rat rieng ed the dan tai khdc, vi nuac ndy ng nuoc ngodi rdt it va lai nhu'ng ket cue khde nhau. Tinh den thdi diem cd thdng du tdi khodn vdng lai cua ngudi dan, 2010, so sanh vai ng cdng cua My Id 90.4%) ehinh phu khong cdn den nhimg gdi ciiu tro GDP vd Nhdt Id gan 200%) (GDP), ng cdng tir ben ngodi md chi phdi huy dgng tilt kiem eiia ca khdi Lien minh Chdu Au Id 80%) GDP, ciia ngudi ddn dk gidi quylt khung hodng. trong dd: Hy Lap 123% GDP, Italy 127% GDP, Ireland 142%, B6 Ddo Nha 87,9%, Ng nuac ngodi chinh Id nguy ca cua Tdy Ban Nha 73,5%). Nan nhdn mdi nhdt cd khimg hodng vd hieu ling sup dd domino la the se Id Phdp vai ng cong cham mirc 1.700 dilu khong thi trdnh khdi nlu mot trong
  8. ^diiq
  9. 20 NGHIEN Ctru CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12 (135).2011 a) Uy ban Chau Au cd quyln xir phat Trudrc dd Lien minh Chdu Au da dua ra eac nudc khdng luan theo cam kel ve ngdn ede gidi phdp cd ngdn h^n vd ddi ban nhu sau: sach; Ve ngdn hgn b) Ca 17 nudc khu vyc Eurozone phdi Quy Binh dn tdi chinh Chdu Au (EHSF): thye thi cai Id, thay doi lual phap rieng nhdm ngdy 9/5/2010, 27 nuac chau Au dd ddng y can bang ngdn sach; thdnh lap Quy Binh on tai chinh Chau Au, mgt cdng cu ldi chinh hgp phdp giiip dam e) Cac nuac Eurozone sc duge dp dat 7 A eac khoan thuc doanh nghiep va giao djch tai bao dn dinh tdi chinh tai chdu Au. chinh gidng nhau; Ca chi Binh dn ldi chinh Chau Au (EFSM): Ngdy 5/1/2011, Lien minh Chdu Au d) Cac khodn ho trg ldi ehinh trong lhanh lap Co cbl Binh dn tai chinh Chau tuang lai se khdng bdl budc eac nhd dau tu Au, day la mdt quy khdn cap ldy vdn tir eac ea the phai chiu nhu trudrng hgp vai Hy Lap thi trudrng tdi chinh vd ngdn sach ciia Lien vira qua. minh Chdu Au dudi sy ddm bdo bai Uy ban Dang chu y, Anh - nuac dimg ddu nhdm Chau Au. theo chil nghTa biet lap, cimg vai Thuy Dien, Hiep udc Brussels: Ngdy 26/10/2011, Czech va Hungary, da tuyen bd "se phu lanh dao 17 nuac da hgp tai Brussel vd ddng quyet bdl cu dieu gi phuang hgi den quyen y xda 50%) ng cho Hy Lap bdng quy cim trg lgi cua Anh qudc" Dieu ndy khdng ndm do Quy Binh dn tdi chinh Chdu Au thye hien. ngoai dy doan ciia gidi phdn tich nhung Su can thiep cua ECB: ECB da thuc ciing gap phdi sy gidn dii rdt ldn tir phia cdc hien mgt sd nhiimg bien phdp nhdm ban che nudc thanh vien Lien minh Chdu Au (BBC, tinh bdt dn vd ndng cao tinh thanh khodn cua 2011). thi trudng tdi chinh. Cudi cimg, sau 10 tieng ddng hd tranh Ddu lien, ECB bdt ddu mua lai cac ludn, den sang ngdy 9/12/2011, Lien minh khodn ng ciia chinh phii vd tu nhdn, len tdi A 200 ti Euro cho den cudi thdng 10/2011; Chdu Au da dat dugc sy ddng thudn cao (trir Tiep theo, ECB cong bd kl hoach phdn phoi nudc Anh) ve "tang cudng ky ludt ngdn cae boat dgng tdi cung cdp von ddi han; Thii sdch" Ngodi 4 diem nhu tren dd neu, ed 2 ba, ECB khdi dgng lai hop dong hodn doi bien phap la: Thdnh lap "Co cbl dn dinh vdi ddng ddla dudi sy ho trg cua Cue Dy trii: Chau Au" (EMS) sdm ban mgt ndm, kl tir Lien bang My. thdng 7/2012; Thir hai Id "Quy Binh on tdi chinh Chau Au FESF" dugc gia ban din giiia Se tiin hdnh cdi td vd tdi ca cdu doi vcri ndm 2013. he thdng tdi chinh ngdn hdng, qudn ly nha
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  11. 22 NGHIEN Ciru CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°12 (1 2011 2. Baldwin, DiNino, Fontagnd, Dc Aug. 2010. Santis, and Taglioni (200S), Study on Ihe htlp://www. unc. edu/~salemi/Econ006/Porton hnpact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign e_2004.pdf Direct hiYcsimcnt, Economic Papers 321, 9. Nitsch V, Pisu M (2008), The Euro European Commission. and trade: new evidence, Voxeu, 3. Berger 11, Nitsch V (2008), Zooming htlp://www.voxeu.orK/index.php?q=nod out: the trade effect of the Euro in historical e/1400, 10 Apr 2011]. perspective, IMF working paper, IMF 10. Silva J, Tenereyro S (2010), Has the 4. Dinh W (2004), The Euro, Institute euro increase trade? Short answer: no, for European Studies Vietnam, Vietnam Centre Piece Autumn, 2010. Academy of social sciences. 11. Sloman J and Hinde K 2007, 5. Horvath R, Komarek L (2002), Economics for Business. 4'*' Edition, Prentice Optimum currency area theory: an approach Hall. for thinking about monetary integration, 12. Song W (2011), Exchange rates. Warwick economic research papers. University slides. Critical Issues in Global Department of economics, the University of Business, Coventry University. Warwick. 13. Weerapan A (2004) Lecture 16: The 6. Mundell R (2000), Currency areas, European Monetary Union, Department of exchange rate systems and international Economies, Wellesley College. monetary reform. Journal of applied economics, Columbia University. 14. BusinessWeek 2011, Merkel slam Euro Speculation, warns of "resentment" 7. Pareja S, Vivero R, Sen-ano J (2007), The Effect on EMU on tourism, Review of 15. CPM 2011, The giant pool of money, International Economics 2007. Chicago Public Media. http://papers.ssm.com/sol3/papers.cfm? 16. Vovnews, 2011, Chdu Au dang tiin abstract id=983231. 10 Apr 2011. tdi mdt cugc khung hodng tdi chinh. 8. Portone D (2004), The costs and 17. Kinh tl vd du bdo 2011, Bdo dong benefits of the Euro in European Monetary do cho tucmg lai ciia ddng Euro. Union countries. The University of North 18. BBC Vietnamese, 2011, Lanh dgo Carolina at Chapel Hill. N.p., n.d Web. 3 chdu Au hgp bdn khimg hodng.
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